NHL Notebook: Who will make it on Bruins’ protection list ahead of Seattle expansion draft?

The expansion draft for the NHL’s 32nd franchise may not be until Wednesday, July 21, but the Seattle Kraken should have a very good idea of how they’re going to construct their roster by this weekend — as 30 teams (the Golden Knights are exempt from this draft) must submit their lists of protected players to Seattle and the league by Saturday, July 17th, with said lists becoming public the following day.

We’ve run multiple mock drafts and run-throughs of the Bruins’ expected strategy to best protect their top assets from Ron Francis and the Kraken, but in case you need a brief refresher on some of the basic rules of the expansion draft:

- Teams have two options when it comes to protecting players. They can protect players via a 7-3-1 list (seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie) or an 8-1 format (eight skaters and a goalie). Obviously, teams with loaded D corps might be more inclined to go with the 8-1 format in order to protect four or more of their blueliners, but such a route opens the door for a talented forward to get snatched by Seattle. 

- All NHL teams must expose one defenseman and two forwards who are all under contract for 2021-22 and played in at least 40 NHL games in 2019-20 or played in at least 70 games from the last two seasons. They also must expose a goalie that is under contract for next season or will be a restricted free agent at the end of the 2021-22 season.

- All first- and second-year players, and all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection and will not be counted toward protection limits. So the Bruins won’t have to protect a youngster like, say, Jeremy Swayman. 

- Any player with a no-movement clause in their contract that declines to waive it must be protected by their team. Seattle will have a window to negotiate with UFAs from July 18-21. If they sign one of those UFAs, that becomes their pick from the players’ previous team. 

- Teams do not have to use a protection slot on an unrestricted free agent. So, Boston does not have to use one of those coveted spots on David Krejci, Tuukka Rask or Taylor Hall. As such, don’t be surprised if a lot of pending UFAs sign with their previous club shortly after the expansion draft wraps up.

So who are the Bruins going to protect from the Kraken? 

We can expect at this point the Bruins will opt for the more widely-used 7-3-1 format when it comes to crafting their list — shielding its trio of top blueliners while also maximizing the number of forward assets further down on the depth chart. Had the Bruins added a more legit blueliner with term like a Mattias Ekholm at last year’s trade deadline, then this discussion would likely be very, very different.

But in terms of getting the most out of their protection list, the Bruins are best off with the 7-3-1 grouping. And all things considered, the Bruins are better off than most teams ahead of the expansion draft in terms of not having to let a legitimate top-six forward or top-four defenseman slip through their grasp, nor will they need to make a last-second move and deal an asset in order to brace themselves from Seattle’s selection. 

Here’s who we have on the Bruins’ protection list:

FORWARDS (7)

Patrice Bergeron: With a no-movement clause in his contract, Bergeron is automatically protected here from the Kraken’s clutches. And even without the NMC, the B’s captain would be a lock on Boston’s list, considering that he’s … well, Patrice Bergeron. 

Brad Marchand: Marchand follows a similar script as Bergeron. The NMC protects him outright — but Boston was going to protect him regardless. The deadliest left wing in the game today. 

David Pastrnak: Pastrnak’s NMC finally kicks in starting in 2021-22, but this is a no-brainer with or without movement clauses. Boston isn’t going to let the Kraken scoop up one of the top snipers in the league.

Charlie Coyle: After a disappointing season and now entering just year two of a six-year, $31.5 million contract — Coyle could have been a possible candidate for Boston to willingly expose in order to see if Seattle would snag him and take on the remainder of that deal. But with a NMC attached to his extension, Coyle isn’t going anywhere. After undergoing offseason surgery, the Bruins are hoping for a return to form for the Weymouth native in 2021-22. 

Craig Smith: Signed to a three-year bargain deal last offseason with an annual cap hit of just $3.1 million, Smith is staying put in Boston — with the veteran serving as a key asset in this contention window that Boston finds itself in.

Jake DeBrusk: DeBrusk is a name that’s often tossed out as potential Kraken bait ahead of the expansion draft. And for as horrid a season as the inconsistent winger put forth in 2021, Ron Francis and Seattle would still likely be doing somersaults if Boston opted to let DeBrusk go for nothing. DeBrusk donning another sweater next season still sure seems like a tangible reality, but it’s downright putrid asset management if Boston just waves the white flag and let’s Seattle snatch him up instead of trying to recoup any sort of return on the trade market. DeBrusk’s value has still tanked from where it once was, no doubt. But whether it be serving as a key piece in a package deal for a legit player, a 1v1 swap for another potential NHL contributor, draft capital or more — all of those moves make much more sense than just leaving DeBrusk unprotected this week.

Trent Frederic: Ultimately, the final spot on this list is going to come down to either Nick Ritchie or Trent Frederic — and frankly, it’s not an easy call. I’ve flip-flopped between both forwards over previous lists, and even after publishing this notebook, I still have some trepidation with opting for Frederic over Ritchie. But ultimately, it comes down to $$$, and Boston may not want to be the team on the hook for Ritchie’s expected pay raise after potting a career-high 15 goals in 2021. 

With Ritchie’s reps on the top power-play unit far from guaranteed moving forward, coupled with his game tailing off down the stretch last year (especially in the postseason), Boston very well could move on from Ritchie regardless of whether or not Seattle picks him up. That could involve flipping him for a draft pick or simply opting to not qualify him, which would remove Ritchie’s arbitration rights when it comes to settling on a new deal. At the end of the day, it’s going to come down to which team wants to be the one signing the checks for Ritchie’s new contract. Boston might be unwilling to commit to such a fiscal move.

Ultimately, Frederic is the younger, cheaper asset in this scenario — and could be in line to serve as a key cog on a revamped fourth line, especially if Sean Kuraly heads elsewhere in free agency. While Ritchie could find himself in a tough spot in the middle-six depth chart next year if Boston adds other wingers to the roster this summer and/or DeBrusk returns, Frederic stands as a lower risk that should have a space reserved for him on a checking unit. 

DEFENSEMEN (3)

Charlie McAvoy: Another no-brainer. Should be a Norris Trophy contender next year. And the next year. And the year after that. And th…

Brandon Carlo: After signing a six-year contract extension earlier this week, Carlo is set to remain in place as a key foundation on the B’s blue line for the foreseeable future — even with some of the injury risks that have unfortunately plagued him over the last few years. 

Matt Grzelcyk: He ended the 2021 season on a sour note with a brutal Game 6 against the Islanders, but Boston is still high on Grzelcyk and the value he offers this team as a puck-moving presence on the back end. The Bruins can and should beef up the rest of their D corps, but there’s still merit in keeping a guy like Grzelcyk in the fold, whether it be up with McAvoy when Boston needs an offensive spark or as part of an intriguing shutdown pair with Carlo — with Boston holding a 57-41 edge in shots on goal during a Grzelcyk-Carlo pairing’s 5v5 TOI last season, despite having just 44.26% of their faceoffs in offensive zone. 

GOALTENDERS (1)

Dan Vladar: By qualifying Callum Booth, the Bruins would fulfill the necessary requirements when it comes to exposing a goalie for the Kraken. In turn, the B’s would also be able to protect Vladar — who could be in line for a hefty amount of minutes in the NHL ranks in 2021-22. At this point in his career, Vladar would require waivers to report to Providence next season.

So who will the Kraken have an opportunity to take from the Bruins?

Names include Nick Ritchie, Connor Clifton, Jeremy Lauzon, Curtis Lazar, Chris Wagner, Jakub Zboril and Ondrej Kase.

While Ritchie could be an appealing option for the Kraken (a move that Boston would likely welcome, given the cap savings ahead of Ritchie’s new payday), the logical pick for Seattle would be a cost-controlled regular on the blue line — with either Clifton or Lauzon offering appeal as a hard-nosed stalwart that Dave Hakstol can pencil into the lineup night in and night out.

Ultimately, I think Clifton is the B’s skater that heads up to the PNW within the week — with the 26-year-old skater raising his stock over the last season and locked in on a very affordable contract ($1 million annual cap hit through 2023). A hard-nosed, physical skater that should be a fan favorite in a growing market thanks to his high-energy brand of hockey, Clifton can and should be a dependable contributor n the Kraken blue line for years. 

Boston wouldn’t be thrilled with such a development, especially considering Clifton was likely in line to serve as Kevan Miller’s replacement as Boston’s third-pairing bruiser on the right side next season. The B’s might be in better shape than most teams as far as the expansion draft goes, but Boston is still losing a good player all the same.

OTHER NOTES 

The parade of buyouts across the league continued this week after Minnesota got the ball rolling by pushing Ryan Suter and Zach Parise out on the open market — with another intriguing blueliner hitting free agency in Keith Yandle after the Panthers bought out his contract. Yandle, a Milton product, is an interesting case for the Bruins regardless of the hometown ties. What you see is pretty much what you get with Yandle at this point in his career, with the 34-year-old defensemen serving as an effective power-play QB that seriously struggles in his own zone. And while Yandle could be an option as, say, a third-pairing playmaking conduit, Boston might be better served targeting stingier D-men such as a Suter, Jamie Oleksiak, Jake McCabe, Jani Hakanpaa and Alex Edler. 

If Boston wants to beef up this roster for the postseason, it's going to need to inject some size and snarl on D to balance out the puck-moving prowess offered by players like Grzelcyk and McAvoy. Yandle sure doesn't fit that bill, especially considering that a player like McAvoy could be in line for a major bump in power-play reps next season. Perhaps if it's a cheap deal, Boston will take a guy in Yandle that at the very least serves a functional role and is a workhorse, but methinks Boston kicks the tires on other D-men first once the free-agency feeding frenzy begins. 

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Would the Bruins be interested in Gabriel Landeskog if the Avs captain somehow makes it to free agency? Well, of course – who wouldn't be interested in a two-way force like him?

But ultimately, even if you could make the case that Landeskog might be the more complete player when compared to another top-six LW like Taylor Hall — a reunion between the B's and Hall sure seems a lot more likely this summer. It also might be the most pragmatic move for Boston to make, given Hall's expressed willingness to sign with the B's (and perhaps below market value). 

A discount ... sure doesn't seem to be in the cards if Boston wanted to target Landeskog over Hall. If Landeskog was the only missing piece to complete the puzzle that is a Stanley Cup contending roster, then perhaps you go for it. But Boston has a LOT of other moves to make this summer beyond the second line, and it's going to need all the money it can to accomplish said offseason goals. 

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Brandon Carlo's Zoom call with the media on Wednesday centered on his new six-year deal, but the defensemen dedicated a good portion of his opening remarks saluting Kevan Miller after the veteran announced his retirement on Wednesday. 

Miller's bruising style of play was missed on the ice for Boston over the last few seasons, but his presence alone might have been his top asset — with Boston posting a 19-7-2 record when he was in the lineup in 2021, as opposed to a 14-9-5 record when he was on the shelf. Be it the energy he provided on every shift or just the lift his teammates received from seeing him back on the ice, Miller was a beloved figure in the B's room — with Carlo's comments serving as the latest example of just how revered he was in the eyes of a young D corps. 

"Millsy and I communicated a lot and those past two years were crazy things that he had to battle back from," Carlo said. "But if there was anybody that was going to do it, it was going to be him. It’s good for him to be recognized as that leader and as that guy. I always talk about him in the aspect of just the willingness to never give up. And he never gave up. 

"Even in this retirement sequence that he’s been in, he knew he was ready for that, that it was time. He would have kept going if he felt like it was the appropriate thing to do. I’m just so thankful to have him around the room, to develop the friendship that I had with him. I know he’ll be a guy in my corner, throughout these next six years especially, that I can rely on and lean on at any moment. I just love that guy so much."