NHL Notebook: Is timing on Bruins’ side when it comes to spending big in 2021?

When it comes to gauging the Bruins’ odds of going for it in 2021 - it sure seems like a no-brainer, right?

As we covered in the immediate aftermath of Boston’s disappointing second-round exit against the Islanders, the only palatable course for the B’s to chart moving forward is to try and make the most of the final years of the Bergeron era — diverting resources and assets towards putting this current roster in the best possible position for another Cup run next spring.  

Based on both Don Sweeney and Cam Neely’s comments back in mid-June, it sure seems like Boston’s top brass concurs with such a sentiment — especially given the fact that the time for the Bruins to truly blow things up and sell off assets is likely a year or two too late at this juncture.

And while putting all of your chips on the table for a memorable last couple of hurrahs in 2021 and perhaps 2022 might be setting the stage for some painful years once names like Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci and others have hung up their skates — there are some factors that are working in Boston’s favor when it comes to maximizing whatever returns they can get from the final chapters of this fruitful era of Bruins hockey.  

Chief among them is fiscal flexibility and the benefit of shedding some hefty contracts this summer. While many teams are woefully constricted in this flat-cap market, the Bruins are poised to have deeper pockets than most other clubs — with CapFriendly estimating that the B’s will open the summer with around $30 million in cap room. 

And even though some of those contracts coming off of the books feature players that will ideally be retained moving forward like Krejci, another positive perk benefiting the B’s is that most of these key cogs will likely return on a lower annual rate such as No. 46 and Tuukka Rask (if Rask even returns, that is). 

Add in other big names like Taylor Hall expressing a willingness to remain in Boston at potentially below market value, and the Bruins could still have close to $20 million to spend elsewhere in free agency or on the trade market after bringing foundational players back into the fold.

Given the litany of needs that Boston must address this offseason when it comes to blue line help and scoring depth — coupled with the urgency to make the most of however many years the B’s can still reap the benefits of guys like Bergeron and Brad Marchand playing at a high level — the conventional line of thinking would have the Bruins opening their wallet and spending to the limit when it comes to bolsteringf this current roster.

Be it spending big bucks in free agency for the likes of Jamie Oleksiak, Alec Martinez and/or Jake McCabe on defense, legit middle-six wingers on the market like a Blake Coleman, Kyle Palmieri or Zach Hyman or dealing for players like a Conor Garland, Mattias Ekholm or another skater with a heftier contract, the Bruins do have the means to give this roster a shot in the arm thanks to their healthy amount of cap space. 

But for as tempting as it is to spend to the limit this summer — there are few factors looming on the horizon that might make one think twice before giving the green light on tossing out a slew of multi-year deals that could financially constrict the B’s in 2022 and beyond. 

It’s a delicate balancing act for the Bruins in the midst of their win-now window, but one that must be considered when it comes to not letting the urgency of this summer hamper opportunities to improve this roster beyond the lens of just this 2021-22 campaign. 

A loaded 2022 free-agency class

When it comes to plugging in holes on Boston’s roster, there are a lot of intriguing names available in the 2021 free-agent class — be it Martinez, Oleksiak, Coleman, Hyman, Palmieri, Brandon Saad and much more.

But if Boston is looking for a transformative piece that can take this club to another level this summer — it’s likely going have to pursue said targets via trade, or wait to open up their wallets the following summer in 2022 when a HAUL of legitimate stars hit the market. 

I mean, take your pick if you’re a team flush with cap space in 2022.

Need a legitimate top-six center in 2022-23 and beyond? (sound familiar?), you’ve got names like Aleksander Barkov, Tomas Hertl, Sean Couturier, Vincent Trocheck and Nazem Kadri. Older pivots like Evgeni Malkin and Claude Giroux will also hit free agency. 

Need a top-six winger? Names like Filip Forsberg, Johnny Gaudreau and Rickard Rakell are UFAs. Matthew Tkachuk could be a target as an RFA. 

How about a legit top-pairing defenseman? Seth Jones is due to get paid if he doesn’t ink an extension for whatever team inevitably deals for him this summer. Other UFA blueliners include Colton Parayko, Mattias Ekholm, Hampus Lindholm, Morgan Reilly and Ryan Pulock.

 Sheesh. 

The Bruins are expected to explore every possible avenue in order to brace this roster for at least one more Cup run in 2021-22, but if the B’s are looking to prevent a full-blown rebuild in the post-Bergeron era and instead try to retool with new franchise pieces surrounding the likes of Charlie McAvoy and David Pastrnak, and easy route would have the B’s tossing some huge contracts offers out in an effort to lure a guy like Barkov or Hertl as an suitable (albeit expensive) replacement for No. 37 and No. 46 down the road. 

But in order to play ball during the summer of 2022, the Bruins are going to have to be flexible with how much money they’re allocating this offseason. Boston could set itself up for a chance to snag a big fish in free agency in ‘22 with Bergeron’s contract coming off the books (with Boston likely hoping to retain him at a lower cap hit moving forward) and Boston ideally signing Krejci this summer to a one-year deal — opening the door for Boston to at least partly rework their pipeline of pivots the following offseason after attempting one last kick at the can this year. 

And yet, while the B’s might be able to ink a player like Krejci or a Rask to a one-year deal this summer, you’re not going to get the same flexibility from other ‘21 UFAs like a Coleman, Palmieri, Oleksiak or Martinez. 

Given the current circumstances facing the Bruins at this very moment, a scenario in which Boston simply opts not to target free agents with term in an attempt to put this 2021-22 team over the top just seems inconceivable — if not a direct slap in the face to players like Bergeron and Marchand. 

Still, this isn’t an offseason in which we can just expect the Bruins to just spend wildly given their available cap room for the sake of having cash to burn. Whether it be making an effort to free up more money via deals involving contracts such as John Moore's or Jake DeBrusk's — or prioritizing one-year deals for key cogs like a Krejci or Rask, the B’s need to make sure that there’s enough money saved for next year when a potential contention-extending piece could be available for the highest bidder. 

Looming pay days for McAvoy & Pastrnak

A loaded free-agent class in 2022 should be enough of an incentive for the Bruins to be very, very cautious about how they utilize their available cap room this summer. But beyond just the need to acquire outside help in an effort to put this team in the best possible position to contend, Sweeney and the B’s are also well aware that they’re going to need to have some money saved in order to pay the new faces of the franchise in Charlie McAvoy and David Pastrnak in 2022 and 2023, respectively. 

While the Bruins have benefited over the past decade of avoiding to pay players above the fiscal ceiling set by Krejci ($7.25 million) and Bergeron’s ($6.875 million)’s deals, it sure seems like that threshold is going to smashed in due time, with McAvoy in line for a significant pay raise after this year. 

Even though Boston still holds a bit of leverage in that McAvoy is still an RFA, the Bruins would be very, very wise to try and strike a long-term deal with their star defenseman — given both the potential of a rising salary cap limit as the years go along, but also because McAvoy’s value should only continue to soar with each passing year. A perfect scenario for Boston would likely involve the potentially perennial Norris Trophy contender to a long-term deal with an average annual cap hit betweem $8 - $8.5 million, but that could be low-balling McAvoy’s eventual payout.

Expect a similar hefty paycheck coming Pastrnak’s way in 2023 — especially if the winger adds another pair of 40-plus-goal seasons on his resume before entering UFA status. When Boston signed Pastrnak back in September 2017 to a six-year contract with a $6.66 annual million cap hit, it was already considered one of the top bargains in the league. Four years later, it’s downright laughable that the B’s have employed arguably the top goal scorer in the league at that annual rate. 

Expect that to change in the coming years. 

There are other factors worth considering when it comes to reeling in just how aggressive the B’s might be in the next year or so in an effort to try and put this team over the top. After relinquishing first-round picks in two of the previous three seasons, the B’s should be wary about moving more valuable draft capital again and again.

While that could curtail the B’s a bit in terms of their efforts of acquiring top-tier talent via trades, Boston would be wise to place a premium on their first-round picks in 2022 and 2023 ahead of what are expected to be loaded drafts.

Of course, Boston likely won’t isn’t going to suddenly plummet into lottery-pick contention in the next two years, but even if lauded prospects like a Shane Wright, Connor Bedard, Brad Lambert, Matthew Savoie, Adam Fantilli and Matvei Michkov are all far out of Boston’s reach, there should still be enough talent in Boston’s expected draft range in the low to mid-20s that any tempting offers pitched this summer to acquire players at the cost of future firsts must be weighed heavily.

Boston’s 20th overall pick thus summer in a largely meh draft might be up for grabs for the right price if the B’s can truly acquire a game-changer on the blue line or up front — but sooner or later, the Bruins must be cognizant about the future, and there’s plenty of tantalizing talent that should be ripe for the picking over those two drafts. 

Now, even with these looming concerns regarding McAvoy/Pastrnak’s pay days and the potential of missing out of the 2022 UFA sweepstakes, do I expect the Bruins to go for a conservative approach this summer? Of course not. 

Given everything that Sweeney and Neely mapped out last month — coupled with the evident urgency to make good on at least one final Cup run with this core in place — I fully expect Boston to do everything it can to construct the best possible roster in 2021-22. 

But with potential avenues to extend this contention window beyond its expected expiration date of 2022 or 2023 available in the coming years, the B’s need to be smart as to how to best utilize this cap space over the next month, while maintaining the flexibility that ensures that 2021-22 is not indeed the final go of it before a painful rebuild. 

Other Notes:

We’ve already explored both the Predators (Ekholm) and the Coyotes (Garland, Oliver Ekman-Larsson) as potential trade partners for the B’s this summer. But what about a team mired in no-man’s land in the Sharks?

While the Bruins obviously would be wise to steer clear of albatross deals for players like Erik Karlsson ($11 million annually through 2027), Brent Burns ($8 million annually through 2025) and Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($7 million annually through 2026), Boston could have a keen interest in some of San Jose’s forwards — with the Sharks in desperate need of restocking their system in the coming years. 

And while the Sharks are not expected to dangle legit stars such as a Timo Meier or a Hertl at this point, Kevin Kurtz of The Athletic notes that other forwards like Kevin Labanc and Dylan Gambrell could be available for the right price.

Labanc, 25, has seen his game tail off a bit after posting a 56-point campaign back in 2018-19, but the Brooklyn native still fits the mold as a potential middle-six regular that could provide a much-needed scoring boost (especially at even strength) next to Charlie Coyle on a third line. 

Is Labanc the most appealing option for Boston this summer among a large list of available wingers? Likely not — not when considering his dip in production as of late and his rather hefty contract ($4.725 million per year through 2024). But with more and more teams looking to rebuild or move contracts in this flat-cap era, Labanc’s rumored availability is just another sign that Boston could find itself weighing multiple options this summer thanks to its fiscal flexibility.

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Gotta say, I can’t believe people are really making a big deal out of Nikita Kucherov’s *ahem* spirited Zoom conference after the Lightning bested the Canadiens in Game 5 on Wednesday and captured their second-straight Stanley Cup title.

If you’d like the official transcript...

“I don’t know what to say. ****. Back-to-back. I couldn’t sleep for three nights. To be able to win this game was huge. (Andrei Vasilevskiy) was outstanding. MVP. I was telling him every day, you MVP. You the best player. 

And then they give — whatever the guy on Vegas — the Vezina and then last year, they gave Vezina to someone else. Number one bulls***. Number one bulls*** 

Vasi took both Cups. And then he took MVP. I was keep telling him he’s MVP. He was the guy that was, f******, he’s the best. He stood on his head today. He kept us in the game. Another shutout by him. Remarkable. Can’t even tell more.  I’m so happy… I didn’t want to go back to Montreal but they acted, the fans in Montreal, c’mon. They acted like they won the Stanley Cup last game. You kidding me?? (hits podium) Are you kidding me?”

Am I surprised to see a whole lot of pearl clutching from some hockey circles after Kucherov’s trash-talking Zoom conference? Of course not, especially when he put the Habs and their fans in the crosshairs. 

But considering how much the NHL desperately needs its star players to show, I don’t know, ANY EMOTION, having Kucherov turn full heel and roast an Original Six franchise is more than enough entertainment for me. And, let’s be frank — if you’ve won a Stanley Cup, you’ve got a free rein to talk as much trash as you want. 

More of this kind of stuff, please.