When you’ve got as many potential holes to fill on your roster as the Bruins do — especially in the midst of this win-now window — don’t be surprised to see Boston mentioned early and often when it comes to the various trade rumors that permeate twitter feeds and message boards during this stage of the offseason.
And while we’ve already covered trade targets on the blue line and a local product currently mired in the desert in Conor Garland, the names keep on rolling in when it comes to other intriguing players that could land squarely on Don Sweeney’s wish list.
The Fourth Period’s latest “Summer Trade Watch” list featured some of the usual suspects like Jack Eichel, Seth Jones, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and others — but there were a couple of intriguing additions that might raise the collective eyebrow of B’s fans when it comes to a potential fit on the club in 2021-22 and beyond.
As we continue to trudge through the no-man’s land that is this part of the NHL offseason before the Kraken Expansion Draft kicks things off, we’ll spend the next couple of weeks looking at a few other players on the rumor mill and whether or not they might fit into the Bruins’ plans in 2021-22 and beyond.
First up, a proven scorer out in St. Louis.
Vladimir Tarasenko, St. Louis Blues
Despite a lackluster showing in the second round against the Islanders, the trio of David Krejci, Taylor Hall and Craig Smith still offered Boston its most dynamic top-six unit in years — with the B’s holding a 13-1 edge in goals scored during that second line’s 180:19 of 5v5 ice time during the regular season.
And while one of Boston’s top priorities this summer will be to bring UFAs in Krejci and Hall back into the fold in order to shore up that top-six grouping, you could make the case that the B’s might also be in the market for another top-flight RW if one was available. That’s no slight against Smith, but with Boston desperately needing to spark Charlie Coyle’s line in 2021-22 — adding another impact forward could create a domino effect in which Smith would be slotted down to 3RW, a spot that Boston likely envisioned the veteran would be in for most of the 2021 season.
But to facilitate such a move in which impact players are pushed further down the depth chart to balance out lines, the Bruins would need to find another legit, scoring winger to pair with Krejci and Hall (if they return).
Well, if you’re looking for marquee names on the open market, a proven sniper in Vladimir Tarasenko might fall in line with what the Bruins could be on the prowl for if they’re setting the sights a bit higher than just bottom-six forwards.
According to Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff, the Blues are indeed exploring a trade centered on their star winger — with Tarasenko willing to waive his no-movement clause in search of a new start elsewhere. The 29-year-old winger has two years remaining on his current deal at $7.5 million per year.
Now, had this been the Tarasenko of a few years ago that was dangled out on the market, you’d probably have fair reason to doubt Boston’s ability to even trade for the winger — given their limited prospect pool and other trove of tradable assets.
But Tarasenko’s value has certainly taken a hit over the last few seasons — which also magnifies the risk of any team dealing for him.
For years, Tarasenko was about as consistent as they come as far as lighting the lamp goes— reaching the 30-goal mark in five consecutive seasons, including a 40-goal campaign in 2015-16.
But since Tarasenko helped St. Louis best the Bruins in the 2019 Stanley Cup Final, it’s been a rough stretch for the winger — limited to just 34 total games over the last two seasons due to a recurring shoulder injury.
Even though he eventually returned to the Blues lineup this past season following a third procedure on said shoulder, Tarasenko’s numbers continued to tail off — scoring just four goals over 24 games.
Now, granted, it’s to be expected for there to be plenty of rust and early struggles given his injuries and extended time off, but is there a chance that Tarasenko — who won’t turn 30 until Dec. 13 — could rebound now that he’s got a clean bill of health?
From the Bruins’ perspective, perhaps the most appealing aspect of a deal like this — aside from the obvious hope that he regains his scoring touch and forms part of a lethal second line with Krejci + Hall — is that the Blues’ asking price will likely be more agreeable than most other blockbuster moves this summer, given both Tarasanko’s injury woes and the sizable cap hit he commands during this flat-cap era.
Boston wouldn’t get him for peanuts, but if the B's were able acquire a talent like Tarasanko without mortgaging key pieces on this CURRENT roster, there is something awfully tempting about rolling out three forward lines such as...
Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak
Hall-Krejci-Tarasenko
DeBrusk/Ritchie(?)-Coyle-Smith
And yet, as appealing as that might be, pulling the trigger on such a move does give me pause.
The obvious risk here is that the amount of mileage and injuries just continues to pile up for Tarasenko, and Boston brings in a player making $7.5 million per year that’s far from the player that he once was.
(For reference on Micah Blake McCurdy’s individual impact charts via Hockey Viz — On the offensive side of things, you’d want to see a player providing positive numbers — with the red blobs signifying where the team is generating a majority of their shots from whenever said player is on the ice. As you can see here, the addition of player that's usually an offensive sparkplug in Tarasenko didn't do much last season for the Blues — with their expected goals rate per 60 minutes actually dropping from 2.07 to 1.98 when he was on the ice last season).
The potential lack of production and injury risk is a major concern, but it might be the money that serves as the real deterrent here, because it’s not like the Bruins are just on the prowl for another scoring winger and BOOM — they can cross off most of their offseason to-do list.
If Boston is serious about contending in 2021-22, it’s going to need to address MULTIPLE areas of the roster and allocate plenty of cash in the process — be it retaining the likes of Krejci and Hall, sorting out the situation in net and potentially bringing in another veteran goalie, shoring up its blue line and yes, also setting aside from cap room for Charlie McAvoy’s big payday the following year.
Boston does have some cap room to play with this summer (around $30.2 million at this current juncture, per CapFriendly), but taking a big chunk of that out to bring in a winger that could either pot 35 goals or spend most of the year on IR does seem like an awfully big gamble for a Bruins team that needs to hit on multiple moves this offseason.
Given Boston’s win-now window, perhaps it’s a risk that the B’s view is worth taking — Tarasenko comes in, scores those aforementioned 35 goals, Smith slots down and helps drive a third line with a healthy Coyle and all is well.
But with Boston needing all of the cap space it can get to elevate this roster back into true Cup contention, the safer play might be to look for another legit middle-six winger (Blake Coleman in free agency, Conor Garland in trade) that, even with a pretty solid price tag ($4+ million per year) would be a cheaper alternative to Tarasenko — and one with considerably less risk.
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, HockeyViz and JFreshHockey.