The worst Red Sox season in more than half a century is about to provide a payoff.
Thanks to a 24-36 record in the 60-game season of 2020, the Red Sox find themselves with the fourth pick in the annual draft, which begins Sunday night. The only tangible reward for such a forgettable, lamentable year will provide the Sox with a chance to select one of the handful of best young players in the country.
"I think we all view it as a tremendous opportunity,'' said Paul Toboni, Red Sox amateur scouting director. "It's not every year - it's not every 10 years for us -- where you can access a talent like this in this area of the draft. We're very excited.''
Of course, the identity of that player is far from certain. Not even the Red Sox know which players will be available when it's their turn to select.
That's because the top of the draft is less defined than it's been in years -- owing both to changes to the scouting process brought upon by the pandemic, and a general lack of consensus over the best talent available.
By most accounts, the best top players can be divided into two distinct groups: high school shortstops and more seasoned college players.
As many as three high school shortstops could go with the first pick: Jordan Lawlar (Dallas); Marcelo Mayer (southern California); and Khalil Watson (North Carolina).
The top two college players are righthander Jack Leiter (Vanderbilt) and catcher Henry Davis (University of Louisville).
Much of what unfolds over the next few days may involve teams trying to cut below-market deals with a player, with the goal of saving money from their draft allotment to better utilize later in the draft. As such, the Red Sox are somewhat at the mercy of the teams in front of them.
As eager as they are, the Sox cannot select in a vacuum.
"I think other organizations will probably be keeping us on our toes,'' said Toboni.
There's a school of thought that argues the Red Sox should go with Leiter, the son of former major leaguer Al Leiter, should he still be on the board at No. 4.
That case is buffered by two points. The first is the well-documented struggles the Red Sox have had in developing starting pitchers. It's been more than a decade since the Sox last drafted/signed and developed a major league starter of any note and Leiter is seen as a highly advanced talent who could potentially crack the major league rotation as soon as 2023.
The second is that the Red Sox seldom get to choose this high in the draft, and with the major league team back in contention, won't get an opportunity to do so again for a long time. And now that they're drafting at the very top, the Sox should take Leiter precisely because they won't soon have access to such a quality arm again anytime soon.
But Toboni countered that narrative.
"I would argue that that (theory) isn't limited to the college pitcher demographic,'' he said. "If we were picking at No. 17, or No. 20 or No. 25 this year, we still wouldn't be able to access premium high school shortstops. We kind of play that game in our heads; it's fun to do. But at the same time, we're trying to be as disciplined as possible as far as keeping our emotions in check and not letting what the public thinks about these players influence our evaluation of the player to the extent that it should.''
Numerous reports have Leiter hoping to fall to the Red Sox at No. 4, in part because he would be joining a team that has been a perennial contender (with a few notable exceptions) for the past two decades. That claim cannot be made of at least two of the teams in front of the Sox (No. 1 Pittsburgh and No. 3 Detroit) or the one that immediately follows (No. 5 Baltimore).
And as Chris Sale, returning from Tommy John, ages into his mid-30s, the Red Sox lack an obvious candidate to replace him as a top-of-the-rotation ace. Tanner Houck, Connor Seabold, Bryan Mata and Brayan Bello may all profile as likely major league starters, but none boasts the ceiling of a true No. 1.
While Leiter may be the consensus favorite among fans, there are arguments that can be made for the others.
* Davis would give the Red Sox a potential franchise catcher, something the system currently lacks. He boasts above-average power and plus-plus arm strength, though his receiving skills are still raw. His bat is powerful enough that if he fails to develop behind the plate, he could be moved to a corner infield spot where his bat would still play.
* The three high school shortstops are closely bunched together, with Lawlar and Mayer judged to be a little ahead of Watson. And to those who point out that the Sox would seem well-situated at shortstop for the long-term with Xander Bogaerts signed through 2025, he does have an opt-out in his deal after 2022 that could create a huge hole at the position in 2023.
Further, even if Bogaerts remains, at some point, he may need to be moved off shortstop due to his age and size. As it is, Bogaerts, though he's become more surehanded, lacks anything more than average range for the position.
Finally, it's important to remember that while the best athletes can start out in the middle of the diamond, they're capable of moving elsewhere. If a player is athletic enough to handle shortstop, he could also adapt to virtually any other position on the field, including center field.
The indecision that marks the top of the draft is just one aspect of Sunday's draft.
While things have improved in terms of scouting opportunities this season compared to last, it's still not perfect - particularly when it comes to high school players.
"The lack of process we've been able to create on player, relative to past years...because of the pandemic (has been an issue),'' said Toboni, noting the cancellation of the Cape Cod League last summer and several summer high school showcase events as two examples. "It's easier for the industry to develop a consensus on players when we see them against high-level competition. When we see them less there's going to be greater variance in what we think about them.''