After taking a look at the Bills on Sunday, let's see what the Dolphins were up to this offseason and what that means for the Patriots. The Dolphins finished second in the AFC East with a10-6 record in 2020 and did not qualify for the postseason. Patriots were basically in a dead heat with Miami last year as they split the season series by a combined score of Patriots 33, Dolphins 33.
GOOD NEWS FOR NE: Dolphins have left Tua Tagovailoa on an island
During Tua's rookie season, the Dolphins had Ryan Fitzpatrick to start until the top pick was ready, and also in case he needed replacing (like against the Raiders). Fitzpatrick was out for the must-win season finale due to Covid protocols and Tagovailoa imploded with three interceptions in a 30-point loss to Buffalo.
For his second campaign, the Dolphins have essentially doubled down on Tua as Fitzpatrick was allowed to sign with Washington, and Jacoby Brissett is now the backup. The Dolphins will need substantially better QB play if they are to contend again.
BAD NEWS FOR NE: A lot of talent for Tua to throw to
If the southpaw puts it together, there's no shortage of weapons for him to use — and for the Patriots to have to cover. Adding to WR DeVante Parker and TE Mike Gesicki, the Dolphins signed former Texans speedster Will Fuller and drafted Jaylen Waddle in the first round. There no question that is a lot of offensive talent, but a lot of questions remain.
GOOD NEWS: Will Fuller could be biggest free-agent bust
No one is going to argue Fuller's talent and speed. It's all there, it's why some Patriots fans wanted them to sign him. But he's also injured ALL THE TIME, and he's suspended for the first game of the season for violating PED rules. Out of a possible 64 games the past four seasons, Fuller has suited up for 39 of them. The Dolphins are banking big (one year and almost $11 million), that Fuller, who has not played more than 11 games since his rookie season, that he's suddenly going to discover the TB12 Method.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
BAD NEWS: Dolphins have an excellent defense
There is talent all over the place on Miami's D — if CB Xavien Howard can come to a contractual agreement with the team (he's Stephon Gilmore-ing it to this point). The line is excellent with old friend Adam Butler adding to Christian Wilkins, Raekwon Davis and Emmanuel Ogbah. Jerome Baker is a developing star at LB, and the Dolphins traded for Benardrick McKinney (good vs. run, but liability in space). First-round pick Jaelen Phillips needs to deliver on the edge with Andrew Van Ginkel, but the talent is there. The secondary is stacked with former Patriot Justin Coleman ready to be a top slot. This will be a tough defense to score points again.
GOOD NEWS: Run defense is still leaky
We figure the Patriots to start with their running attack, and the Dolphins were only 22nd in DVOA against the run last year (and that was with new Patriot Davon Godchaux playing well). McKinney was brought in to help that, but expect the Patriots to target him in the pass game, and run when Miami is in sub. Expect good chess matches between staffs that know each other very well.
BETTER NEWS: Dolphins' offensive line is ... a work in progress
Miami seems to be one of those teams that collects talent on offense and figures it will work itself out later. Good luck with that.
The Dolphins are betting on a young QB and are putting him behind an average running game (Myles Gaskin, Malcolm Brown) and an average offense line of Austin Jackson, Solomon Kindley, Matt Skura, Robert Hunt and rookie Liam Eichenberg. Good luck with that. Skura was last seen in these parts almost single-handedly losing the game for the Ravens last year at New England in the rain. The Patriots were probably thrilled to see Skura land in Miami.
Between Fuller's hamstrings, Tua's scared play and a possibly bad line, the Dolphins could have a rough time on offense.
BEST NEWS: Revenge is best served ...
Ted Karras and Godchaux couldn't escape the Dolphins quick enough in free agency, so they'll have plenty of fuel for those matchups. And then you have Kyle Van Noy, who felt like he had the rug pulled out from under him when old friend Brian Flores axed him after one season of good football (nice loyalty). We all know Van Noy — he's got a mouth, and loves to talk amongst his teammates — so you know he's going to be talking all sorts of trash internally about the Dolphins before the matchup, and will be expecting his boys to have his back against the team that did him wrong. So pray for Tua.
In conclusion ...
The Dolphins made substantial progress last year against a cake schedule, but this year will be a big challenge. The defense can go toe to toe with anybody, but if Tua can't hold up behind a leaky offensive line, this has the potential to be an issue — possibly a team divided between offense and defense. Who's going to rescue the team, Jacoby Brissett? This is all on Tua. He better be what Flores and GM Chris Grier hope, or this season could be the beginning of their end in Miami.