Just typing Bills and AFC East champion in the same sentence is strange, and throws me back into the 1990s — when the whole division was actually interesting and could play ball.
But, that's where we are after the first non-Tom Brady season in New England. But will it just be a blip? Will the Patriots right the course this year after the offseason spending spree and (possible) new starting quarterback?
Sure, the answer to that heavily depends on the Patriots, and how quickly all the new pieces can gel and ... if they get quarterback play that can win them games.
Of course, winning the division isn't all that important. The Bucs barely sniffed the Saints in the NFC South during the regular season, but bested them in the divisional round on the way to a Super Bowl title.
Still, though, things go a lot easier if you're the king of your division.
We know all about the Patriots, but what about the Bills? What did they do this offseason, and where are the weaknesses? Let's go with some good news and bad news for New England when it comes to Buffalo entering the 2021 season:
GOOD NEWS: Bills didn't make many additions in the offseason.
Basically, Buffalo's 2021 offseason yielded WR Emmanuel Sanders (replaces John Brown), old friend TE Jacob Hollister (replaces Tyler Kroft), QB Mitch Trubisky (Patriots fans hoping his mojo cools off Josh Allen) and two rookie edge rushers (Gregory Rosseau, first round; Carlos Basham, second). Didn't really add much to a defense that, if it wasn't for the offense, would have gotten exposed as pretty mediocre last season.
BAD NEWS: Bills didn't need to add much ... because they have talent.
Normally when a team basically returns its entire starting lineup on both sides of the ball coming off a division title, that's very bad news for the rest of the division. That could very well be the case here. The Bills may not have a lights-out offensive line, but it's pretty good with RG Jon Feliciano re-signed and LG Cody Ford back from injury. The pass rush, run defense and pass coverage isn't great, but it's good enough if you have great offense in most instances. There's something to be said about continuity — guys just growing in their role makes for a good overall team — and the Bills have that all over the place here, from the front office, to the coaching staff on both sides of the ball. If you're a Bills' fan, you're just fine with the status quo.
GOOD NEWS: Josh Allen is back ... with fans in the stands.
The Bills' talented QB was plagued his first two seasons by erratic plays and throws. He'd make some plays that took your breath away, and then cause you to shake your head with just as many errors. Suddenly, for the most part, they all went away last season (except for the playoff games, where he almost puked on himself a few times — he did, against the Chiefs). So in a strange Covid year, with no fans in the stands, Allen played like a possible MVP .... hmm, funny how it worked out that.
The "Not Completely Sold on Josh Allen" table might be very small this season — it might be just a party of two, me and Bill Belichick at Davios at Patriot Place — but some of us still believe when Cowboy Josh Allen gets in front of fans, especially on the road, he might revert back to his old erratic self, incapable of settling himself down.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
BAD NEWS: Josh Allen is back...
Look, I may not want to have Allen's children like Felger, but even I can appreciate that he is among the top athletic QBs in the NFL, maybe of all time. He can run, throw and can now even direct the offense at the line of scrimmage. Plus, Allen didn't lose his puppetmaster, Brian Daboll, to a coaching job, which further insulates Allen from being exposed after Daboll and Stefon Diggs propped Allen up a bit last season. There's no question Allen has the perfect situation in Buffalo.
GOOD NEWS: The Bills are thin at cornerback.
Buffalo had a chance to add a cornerback high in the draft and passed (sounds familiar), and they did not. That leaves Levi Wallace and 2020 seventh-round pick Dane Jackson to battle it out to win the job opposite Tre'Davious White. Even nickel corner Taron Johnson is just OK. Teams can throw on the Bills.
BETTER NEWS: The pass rush is relying on three young players.
So the cornerback situation isn't great, but that can be helped out by a good pass rush. The issue? The Bills are hoping and praying for one there. Beyond Mario Addison and Jerry Hughes discovering the pool in Cocoon, Buffalo needs AJ Epenesa to make a huge leap from his rookie campaign, and Rousseau and Basham to deliver as rookies. Part of the issue with Rousseau was that he's all physical skills and lacks polish. Tough to fix as a rookie in the pros. So Buffalo's pass rush could be lacking as well.
GREATER NEWS: Bills are still slow at LB, which is bad vs. TEs.
Getting Matt Milano back from injury and re-signed was big for the Bills, he can cover a bit in the middle of the field. Plus one of the safeties (Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde) is a weapon there as well. But LB Tremaine Edmunds may be one of the most overrated players in the league. He's good coming forward but not in space. AJ Klein is good but slow. Wouldn't you know it? The Patriots just invested $30 million annually in two tight ends, Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, who should be able to exploit the middle of the field, especially if the Patriots use a QB who is good at play-action fakes (cough, Mac Jones, COUGH).
BEST NEWS: Bills were bad against the run, and didn't really do much.
Last year, the Bills were 23rd in the league in allowing runs of 10-plus yards. They were 28th in opponent rushing for 4-plus yards on first down. They were 26th in allowing 4-plus rushing yards on any down. To solve that, they got Star Lotulelei off the Covid opt-out list. That's it. Now, Lotulelei is a good player when he's right, and if the talented DT Ed Oliver really pops in Year 3, the Bills could have something. But the chances are the Bills are kind of middling in the middle, which further plays to the Patriots' strengths with the offensive line and running game.
In conclusion ...
The people that want to crown the Bills again, they probably love fantasy football because you're basing that offensive football means more. And maybe it does, who knows? I mean, I think the Chiefs and Bucs defenses loomed larger than their offenses in the biggest postseason games, but I could be wrong about that. And the Bills certainly have enough talent for the defense to do the same if it all comes together, but I've never been a big fan of Sean McDermott's scheme. It's a regular-season defense, not a postseason defense — too much zone.
For as high as everyone is on the Bills, the Patriots had them on the ropes in the first matchup in Buffalo. I mean, the greatest QB ever and the Greatest Show on Turf had ... almost the exact same numbers as Cam Newton surrounded by nobody.
If Newton doesn't let himself get the ball punched out by a nobody, the Patriots probably go in and score to win, and McDermott is not celebrating like it was V-Day and the Bills probably don't amount to much last season.
But that's not what happened, and we all know it. Plus, the Bills came in here and put it on a Patriots team that knew the good fight was long over.
Now factor in a possible change at QB to someone who can exploit the Bills' defense before and after the snap, the influx at receiver and tight end, and all the Patriots added in the front seven ... Yes, a lot has to come together quickly. But those making this division an afterthought ... I don't think that's accurate.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Doing this exercise made one thing crystal clear to me: There's no way Bill Belichick is doing anything other than having Stephon Gilmore back at cornerback. It's not a matter of if but when. There's no way Belichick is facing the Bills twice (and Brady) without talent a cornerback — maybe the old version of Belichick would have, but not this version of The Hoodie. Beyond Brady winning a Super Bowl, it had to drive Belichick crazy that McDermott finally got the best of him, took the division and basically stomped the Patriots in their own building. I think a lot of this was just aimed at the Bills. And Gilmore has to be part of that.
2. I didn't agree with any of her Deflategate stuff, but Sally Jenkins hit the nail on the head about the investigation — which led to absolutely nothing but a fine — into Washington's workplace culture:
It turns out that Wilkinson’s job was to conduct an investigation in which nothing was to be specifically investigated. No conclusions were to be reached about any allegations that she was charged with investigating, because it was not her job to determine whether any “particular allegation of inappropriate conduct” was true. It was not her job to investigate, as it turned out, any actual people.
The whole thing was a complete joke and should be an embarrassment to the NFL. But that's if you believe a league being run by a spineless and greedy ownership puppet would ever do anything other than what's in the best interest of the league and his back pocket. You probably also believe in unicorns, that the Lightning somehow cheated this year and that Oswald acted alone. And if you equate this with any of the Patriots penalties, you're flat-out wrong.
3. Lamar Jackson is being represented by his mother in contract extension talks with the Ravens, and has resisted NFLPA help. This could be an issue holding up other contracts, but the Ravens are not dumb ... they know taking advantage of this situation could only lead to big problems down the road with their QB, and that could filter down to their teammates. The Ravens have a vested interest in making sure Jackson gets a fair deal that keeps him happy.
4. There's no way Brian Flores would deal any of these players — the Patriots' interest would give them serious second thoughts — but saw a list of Dolphins players in danger, and a lot of them could fit with the Patriots: WR Allen Hurns, WR Jakeem Grant, DB Jamal Perry, WR Malcolm Perry (practice squad). Hurns and Grant would make great additions on offense. Now how to get them out of a division rival ...
5. Enjoyed this quote from Carson Wentz: "I’ve been high, I’ve been injured, I’ve been, now, benched, I’ve been traded, I’ve kinda seen a lot in five years, so whatever the game throws at me I’m ready.” ... Except having to compete for his job against a lesser draft pick. He's not ready or OK with that and would rather throw a temper tantrum to get his way out the door. Yup, totally ready for anything. Wentz is totally mentally tough now. Ok...