With the Patriots now into their summer break and with offseason practices concluded, it's a good time to assess where things stand with the roster.
We'll start our Road to 53 now, but we'll readily admit that there are huge gaps even making an educated guess because the team has yet to be in pads, and some players haven't even taken the field. That means the offensive and defensive lines are guesses, and we're making projections on rookies like Joshuah Bledsoe and William Sherman.
But you need to have a starting point, and this will be it for us. We started with the offense. Today we'll get to the very complicated puzzle on defense and special teams.
On both sides of the ball, we offer up a couple of surprise trades. I know we probably say this every year, but this time we really mean it — not sure I've ever seen a roster crunch like this before. When you combine an unprecedented free agency period, along with a robust draft — and the need to finally develop young (and cheaper) talent again — I don't see any other way to fit both without bidding adieu to a handful of veterans that normally would stick and have major roles.
As a starting point, we went back and revamped our previous numbers for the Patriots' five-year average for the number of players taken at that position each season. We used Week 2 rosters instead of initial or even opening-day rosters because roster composition often changes due to roster rules. Some of the numbers were a bit surprising to us, especially at receiver (usually low) and safety, when you take out players who really just play special teams.
Let's take a look at those numbers for defense, and then go over each position:
Here's the entire defense and special teams:
BIGGEST OVERALL ISSUE
The influx of talent. Just in this offseason, the Patriots have imported the following players who are either roster locks or close to it:
Dont'a Hightower
Matthew Judon
Kyle Van Noy
Davon Gaudchaux
Henry Anderson
Jalen Mills
Henry Anderson
Christian Barmore
Ronnie Perkins
That's nine new players.
Could also include: Montravius Adams, Joshuah Bledsoe, Raekwon McMillan.
And that would make 12 players you possibly need to make room for.
This is the defense they ended last season with, via OurLads.com:
No longer back:
John Simon, Adam Butler, Shilique Calhoun, Jason McCourty, Terrence Brooks.
That leaves four more spots for the nine definites. We'll give you Terez Hall and Akeem Spence.
At this point, you're getting into cutting or trading at least two recent draft picks, and that number could easily reach five because Adams had a major sub rusher role in the spring, Bledsoe was a draft pick and Devin McCourty is in his final year, and McMillan brings a veteran option at ILB that allows the Patriots to move Dont'a Hightower and Kyle Van Noy around.
Yup, it's complicated. Obviously injuries and practice performance will determine all this, but right now, in a vacuum, this is going to get dicey.
Let's go through the positions, starting with the one that will likely change the math on defense.
Skimping on the defensive interior numbers finally caught up with the Patriots last season when their porous run defense led to all sorts of problems. Fixing that was obviously a priority for the Patriots as Belichick signed five new or returning players, and re-signed Lawrence Guy late.
Could the Patriots skimp a little here? Possibly. Guy, Davon Gaudchaux and Christian Barmore are the three definites. If Barmore pops in camp, that will help, but you still need depth. Henry Anderson and Montravius Adams bring that.
Of the cuts, Byron Cowart was the most painful. Who goes instead of him? Cowart has talent but his inability to capitalize last year when the team needed him means it might be time to move on. Maybe you can get a pick out of Nick Caserio.
This will be the most controversial position as I put Chase Winovich and Anfernee Jennings on the trade block. I just don't see how either gets much playing at any spot, unless Winovich moves to ILB and takes after Kyle Van Noy a bit more (Winovich looked like he cut weight this offseason, so maybe edge is no longer his spot ... his absence at minicamp complicates things and was strange, especially if it was with a minor injury.)
Another move that complicates the math: Deatrich Wise's extension. Good player in the right scheme, and certainly a leader and fabric guy ... but he's not an edge player and he's not a 3-4 lineman. So what exactly is his position? Winovich over Wise would make a lot more sense but that's unlikely to happen.
Jennings might be my last guy out, even over Winovich, simply because Nick Saban loved him and in theory he can play a lot of different positions. Plus, might be willing to give second-year players a Covid mulligan.
In my mind, Judon and Uche are the starters on the edge, Perkins takes Winovich's spot at some point and provides more physicality against the run, and Wise is a DL/Edge tweener to give versatility. With Hightower and Van Noy able to play on the line if need be and with safeties Adrian Phillips and Kyle Dugger playing in the box a ton, I'm OK with less numbers here.
If you were looking to "steal" a couple of roster spots, this would be it with Bentley and McMillan. But both had major roles in minicamp so I think they stay for now. Plus, if there are injuries on the edge, Van Noy is next up and he'll need a replacement. I think they still like Bentley, and McMillan brings a speed element at the position. Of course, he could be canceled out by a safety in the box.
A Gilmore holdout would open up another spot, and the favorite would be Michael Jackson. Out of the past five seasons, the Patriots have kept six CBs on three occasions. But normally the Patriots have nine between cornerback and safety, not including special teams.
The cornerbacks seem pretty straightforward to me. I don't see where Williams fits, Ross is canceled out by Bryant among short cornerbacks. Virgin and Jackson are the two taller options but Mills gets that spot.
Bledsoe wasn't healthy in camp, so we have no idea if the sixth-round pick can play or not. If he can't, Mills slides over to that spot and another corner could be added. The top three are here without question. Five corners and four safeties make sense numbers-wise.
I would love to keep Nordin as a long FG specialist but that seems like fantasyland with the roster crunch this year, so the hope is for the practice squad. And this is even with cutting one of Belichick's binkies in Brandon King. If Belichick continues to focus on special teams like he always has, then he could keep King and that means another roster spot gone. I just wouldn't understand that.
For the record, the combined punt/kickoff returns by both the Patriots and their opponents last season was 98, or 6.1 per game. In 2004, it was 213 or 13.3 per game.
Special teams plays have decreased 54 percent in 16 years. I'm willing to guess the Patriots' personnel has decreased zero percent over the same time period.