With the Patriots now into their summer break and with offseason practices concluded, it's a good time to assess where things stand with the roster.
We'll start our Road to 53 now, but we'll readily admit that there are huge gaps even making an educated guess because the team has yet to be in pads, and some players haven't even taken the field. That means the offensive and defensive lines are guesses, and we're making projections on rookies like Joshuah Bledsoe and William Sherman.
But you need to have a starting point, and this will be it for us. And we'll start with the offense.
On both sides of the ball, we offer up a couple of surprise trades. I know we probably say this every year, but this time we really mean it — not sure I've ever seen a roster crunch like this before. When you combine an unprecedented free agency period, along with a robust draft — and the need to finally develop young (and cheaper) talent again — I don't see any other way to fit both without bidding adieu to a handful of veterans that normally would stick and have major roles.
As a starting point, we went back and revamped our previous numbers for the Patriots' five-year average for the number of players taken at that position each season. We used Week 2 rosters instead of initial or even opening-day rosters because roster composition often changes due to roster rules. Some of the numbers were a bit surprising to us, especially at receiver (usually low) and safety, when you take out players who really just play special teams.
Let's take a look at those numbers for offense, and then go over each position:
Here's the entire offense:
The total number was close to the previous average of 24.2. We had 25 on offense: 3 QBs, 5 RBs, 4 WRs, 5 TE/FBs, 4 OTs and 4 G/Cs. I wanted to keep a lot more on both sides of the ball, but especially on offense because you literally have entirely new dynamics at three key positions — QB, WR and TE — due to the Patriots bringing in new starters (two at WR and TE) at each spot. We have no history on how Bill Belichick is going to handle this. I mean, how can you really know what you're going to get, in terms of performance and durability, from Mac Jones, Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. Ideally, you'd love to have a little more backup at each spot, but the Patriots really can't afford much.
Let's go through it by position.
At this point, Cam Newton and Jones are here. Could that change with Newton at some point depending on Jones? Sure, but that's a long way off. Could the Patriots go with just Newton and Jones? Yes, but I think that's a long shot.
Went with Jarrett Stidham over Brian Hoyer because the team lost confidence in him last year after the Chiefs game and that won't go away. After this camp, it will be time to transition to a career in coaching, and Hoyer would be great at it.
First controversial decision: The trading of James White.
Unless Stevenson completely wows at camp and in the preseason (definitely a possibility) then I think Sony Michel stays and the Patriots get a comp pick for him after the season. The Patriots love Brandon Bolden and he has immense special teams value. And that's ultimately why we kept Taylor and shipped out White: Taylor has kick return value and he's really become a good all-around player. I don't know how they would part with him.
White had a rough season last year, on and off the field. He was a free agent and no one really wanted him. The Patriots gave him a one-year deal and while it's fully guaranteed, at just $2.4 million, that's going to be inviting to another team (Tampa) that could use a veteran pass back.
The most RBs the Patriots have kept the past five season is five. If Stevenson pops, then Michel is tradeable and you get the best of both worlds with White and Taylor. But given the Patriots' history of redshirting RBs, the odds of that are not good. Someone has to go.
This is going to drive the fantasy-obsessed people crazy, but if you think about it for a minute ...
Out of the past five seasons, the Patriots have kept four receivers (not including Matthew Slater) three times and five just twice. While you want some backup for Agholor and Bourne to cover your tuchus, a) the Patriots don't really have anyone who screams potential starter right now, and b) the Patriots are going to have two tight ends on the field a lot of the time, nevermind a fullback. When Gronk and Hernandez were at their zenith in 2012, the Patriots only kept four receivers, and one of them was an on-fumes Deion Branch.
It's pretty clear cut to me that Meyers and Olszewski are the next guys up. And that means N'Keal Harry is shipped out, unless injuries strike.
This is one of the spots that will drain a player or two from other spots.
The x-factor at tight end is that as Smith and Henry usually endure some nagging injuries, and Smith has already barely been on the practice field. You need at least one backup, and I'm guessing the Patriots would love two — Devin Asiasi and Matt LaCosse, for a veteran presence. But the hope is Dalton Keene gets more up to speed and is a swing player between FB/TE. If not, the Patriots might have to part ways with one of their fullbacks, and it might not be Jakob Johnson. Asiasi and Keene will be on the spot in camp.
The only real surprise here along the offensive line is that I kept one less interior player than normal, but I needed to steal a roster spot and Ted Karras can man many spots. Marcus Martin was the player I wanted to keep, but that will get sorted out in pads. Still not sure if Willliam Sherman is a guard or tackle yet, and that is also TBD. If Yodny Cajuste finally looks like a player, then maybe Sherman is a guard and finds a place to stick. Otherwise, Sherman might have to go the practice squad route.
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What did you think? Leave your thoughts in the comment.
One rule: You can't say, "There's no way they're getting rid of X" without offering who else you would part with to keep them. Let's hear it, Belichick Jr.