FOXBOROUGH — The 2021 Patriots assembled for the first time as a group on Monday for mandatory mini-camp.
There was one notable absence: Stephon Gilmore, who is reportedly sitting out again (he pulled a little camp vacation last year with the same aim) to be paid more money by the Patriots.
More power to him. I've learned over the years not to question an NFL player's desire to get paid more. Their careers are too short. The teams will cut them in a split second if their play slips and it benefits them financially. Teams are never shy about asking for paycuts. Yet, we never hear about the owners or head coaches giving back their money.
So if Gilmore wants more money, more power to him. I hope he gets it.
Now, the big question ... should the Patriots be the team to give it to him? That's an entirely different question, and that's worthy of debate.
I know what the Bill Belichick from less than a decade ago would do. I just don't know if the Belichick we see today would do the same thing. It will be fascinating to watch this unfold.
We went through this whole exercise with Gilmore last year and the two sides reached a reasonable compromise.
The problem? These are two distinctly different situations, and it could lead to a much different result.
Gilmore, a year ago, was coming off being named 2019 NFL Defensive Player of the Year and wanted to be paid as such. So the Patriots, after Gilmore withheld his services in the middle of training camp, agreed to move about $5 million of his 2021 salary to '20 to get Gilmore near $15.5 million for last season.
A totally agreeable solution. Gilmore got a fair wage, the Patriots got their top corner in the fold. Good move by Belichick. No reason to force the issue when Gilmore was worth that money.
But the compromise left a ticking time bomb: there was no way Gilmore was going to play for $7.5 million this season. And that's where things get complicated.
Even before Gilmore's 2020 season ended with a torn quad and surgery, Gilmore had a few things working against him:
- He's going to be 31 in September;
- His play declined last season
Gilmore went from being the No. 3-ranked coverage player by PFF in 2019 (tops among man cover corners) with six interceptions and 13 pass breakups, to 49th with one interception and two pass breakups.
Then you have the whole injury situation. Who even knows if Gilmore is healthy? Who knows if he's going to last the season? If he was on the free-agent market at his age coming off injury — during the Covid cap year, mind you — how big of a deal would he get?
William Jackson, who is two years younger than Gilmore, got $13.5 million from Washington. Janoris Jenkins, two years older than Gilmore, got $7.5 million this offseason.
The big problem is both Gilmore and the Patriots have competing interests.
Gilmore, at 31 and just one season removed from being DPOY, is looking at likely his final chance to get a huge contract. All things being equal and getting decent trade compensation, I'm sure the Patriots would have been very interested in trading Gilmore and giving him that shot.
But the Patriots need Gilmore. There is very little depth at cornerback beyond Gilmore, Jonathan Jones and JC Jackson (who will be a UFA next offseason). And unless there's another high-caliber corner available via trade, the Patriots don't have many great options to replace Gilmore, internally or externally.
Richard Sherman is the top free-agent corner left and I'm sure Belichick would like the player, but he's 33, has played for $13 million the past three seasons, and isn't really a man coverage corner, he's a zone corner. The other two free agents, Brian Poole and Nickell Robey-Coleman, are both 5-foot-9 or under.
So if you're the Patriots, what do you do? The easy thing to do would be a bridge deal. I think Gilmore would entertain a Brady-esque one-year deal that adds a dummy year and allows him to be a UFA next year. I don't think Gilmore would go beyond that — he wants that last, great multi-year deal and could probably fool some team into giving him that. Anything beyond a year and Gilmore will be too old to get a mega-contract.
If this was the Belichick who dealt with Malcolm Butler, Logan Mankins and Wes Welker, et al ... Belichick would trade Gilmore and figure out a way to get by at cornerback (that Belichick would have had in-house options better than Joejuan Williams).
But a 69-year-old Belichick coming off his first losing season in 20 years, an uncharacteristic free-agency spending spree, who doesn't have Tom Brady to cover up his roster and isn't sure what he has at QB, who is trying to catch Don Shula and doesn't want to get embarrassed by Brady at home on national television? Can that Belichick afford to play hardball? Will he?
I have serious doubts about that, which is why Gilmore and his agent, Jason Chayut (a vet who knows what he's doing), are smart to press the issue. I don't see how Gilmore loses here. Either they get something that acceptable from the Patriots (short or long term), or Belichick is tired of the games and ships Gilmore to some place where he gets his money. I don't see any downside to this strategy.
My odds of the different scenarios, from highest odds to lowest:
- Gilmore gets a one year bump from Patriots, hits free agency next year;
- Patriots hold onto to Gilmore and trades him during camp after injuries hit for a player and/or second-round pick.
- Gilmore gets a long-term extension from Patriots.
- Gilmore released (saves $7 million in cap space).
What's Belichick going to do? With this version, you never know.