Penguins or Islanders? An early look at who Bruins should want to face in Round 2

After vanquishing the Washington Capitals in five games during the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Bruins have been granted an extended break from the playoff grind — with five more series still yet to be determined. 

And while there’s some risk that might come with such an extended layoff (here’s looking at you, 2019), the Bruins are looking to make the most of their time away from the usual rigors of the postseason — whether that be licking their wounds, scheduling second doses of COVID-19 vaccines or simply disconnecting for a few days. 

But amid some much needed time off, Bruce Cassidy and his staff have been keeping a close watch on the ongoing playoff bout between the Islanders and Penguins — with the victor punching a ticket to a second-round meeting with the B’s. 

"Rest is important,” Cassidy said. “I think we're a veteran enough group, especially if you feel you're in it for the long haul, which we do feel we're a real good hockey team that's getting better. Obviously, we'll watch with interest with New York and Pittsburgh. We've been keeping an eye on it.”

Considering how much Cassidy already tends to not chase matchups in a game setting, it sure seems likely that Boston’s bench boss won’t publicly admit to which is the lesser of two evils between the Penguins and Islanders. 

Of course, that won’t prevent us from undergoing such an endeavor. 

As we all await Boston’s second-round opponent, here are a few observations about both the Islanders and Penguins — and just how the Bruins might match up against them in the coming days.

Tuukka Rask should be thrilled with either opponent

Another netminder donning a gold sweater might draw a bit more attention when it comes to projecting X-factors in Round 2 (more on Pittsburgh’s situation in net a bit later), but nothing has changed with Boston’s usual mantra come the postseason — “As Tuukka Rask goes, so goes the Bruins.” 

While Boston’s No. 1 goalie is certainly facing a bit more heat this postseason with rookie sensation Jeremy Swayman waiting in the wings, Rask has been stellar so far — closing out Boston’s five-game triumph over the Capitals with a .941 save percentage.

Perhaps most encouraging for Boston during that first-round bout was that Rask seemed to get better and better with each new game — with his goals saved above expected rate rising throughout that playoff set.

Getting over the hump against a team that had previously haunted him in years past (.894 save percentage in 23 regular-season games vs. Washington) should do wonders for Rask’s confidence moving forward — and that should only be bolstered regardless of who Boston battles here in Round 2.

Let’s be frank: Whether it be Tristan Jarry or Ilya Sorokin down the other end of the ice, Boston should have the clear advantage in net next round with Rask in place (just how much of a mismatch it is depends on if Pittsburgh manages to advance). But besides the gap between Rask and some unproven netminders, the fact of the matter is that Rask has owned both the Penguins and the Islanders over the years.

As has been the case for close to two decades now, the Penguins have excelled as a team with plenty of speed and skill — headlined by that potent one-two punch down the middle with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. 

But even with so much firepower present on its roster, the Penguins have struggled to put much of a dent in Rask for years now. Even though Rask only started two games against Pittsburgh in 2021, he made the most of them — winning both contests and generating a .946 percentage.

And don’t forget that a wagon of a Pens team in 2013 was flat-out embarrassed in a four-game sweep by Boston in the Eastern Conference Final due in large part to Rask reaching a higher plane of existence between the pipes (.985 save percentage, two shutouts in four games). 

June 1, 2013

Tukka Rask makes all 29 saves in a Boston Bruins (3-0) win over the Pittsburgh Penguins in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals

Bruins would go on to sweep the series

Tuukka - 4 games - 0.44 GAA - .985 SV% pic.twitter.com/PUL5QKxr0R

— Boston Sports Info (@bostonsportsinf) June 1, 2020

But Rask has also fared very well against the Islanders during his career — going 19-7-1 in 29 career games against New York with a .936 save percentage and a 1.88 GAA. 

Whatever the matchup may be, Boston should be feeling awfully confident with Rask in net. 

Isles’ early-season dominance of Bruins doesn't hold much significance these days

Much like the previous round in which plenty of fans were worried about how the Bruins would fare against a physical Capitals team, a Bruins-Islanders playoff series would also raise the blood pressure of many in New England, due in large part to Boston’s struggles against New York early on this season. 

For most of the first month or so of the 2021 campaign, the Islanders looked like a juggernaut — with great coaching, a stingy defensive structure, great goaltending and timely scoring serving as the perfect ingredient for a roster designed to grind through a grueling playoff slate. 

Boston certainly looked outclassed in the early going against Barry Trotz’ club, losing its first five games against New York while getting outscored by a 17-8 margin. 

And while those less-than-stellar returns might loom large over some fans dreading a similar result in Round 2, it’s been a tale of two seasons for both the Bruins and Islanders since the deadline — and that (albeit smaller) sample size in April and May might be a bit more helpful when it comes to mapping out a potential playoff showdown. 

After adding Taylor Hall, Curtis Lazar and Mike Reilly at the deadline (along with getting healthy), Boston didn’t seem all that troubled by the Islanders — going 3-0-0 against them down the stretch and outscoring them by a 10-3 margin. 

And while a revamped and retooled Boston lineup deserves plenty of credit for landing plenty of punches against an Isles team that still ranked second in the league in goals against (2.23), you could make the case that New York has been on a downward spiral for some time now. 

The loss of captain Anders Lee to an ACL injury left a sizable hole in New York’s top-six unit — with the Islanders posting a record of 17-6-4 with the winger in the lineup and going 15-11-3 without him, including a 6-7-3 showing in May. 

Of course, New York still currently sits one game away from bouncing Pittsburgh and moving on to Round 2. But aside from some spectacular implosions in net, Pittsburgh has generally put New York on the ropes for extended stretches in Round 1, holding sizable leads in shots on goal (175-143) and scoring chances (149-103) through five games. 

Don’t get it twisted — the Islanders are still a very good team with the personnel in place to grind out a couple of one-goal victories in a seven-game series. But Boston is no longer the punching bag it once was at the start of the season, especially with guys like Hall (four goals in three games against the Isles) added to the mix. 

Bergeron vs. Crosby wasn’t even close during regular season

When it comes to scouting the Penguins, it deservedly starts with Sidney Crosby and Pittsburgh’s loaded forward corps. 

And while the Pens’ top line of Crosby, Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust routinely make life hell for even the most stout opposing defense, they haven’t had much luck this season when matched up against Patrice Bergeron and Boston’s own top-line triumvirate. 

While it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that a player with Bergeron’s credentials and two-way acumen still routinely tilts ice in Boston’s favor when asked to shut down opposing top-six units, the numbers are pretty striking when No. 37 and No. 87 were out on the ice at the same time in 2021. 

In total, during the 59:25 of 5v5 ice time in which Bergeron and Crosby were matched up, Boston held a convincing lead in …

Shot attempts: 63-29
Shots on goal: 44-17
Scoring chances: 29-16
Goals scored: 4-0

That’s just pure domination. 

And while the Pens have plenty of firepower elsewhere in the lineup (especially with Malkin back in the lineup and Jeff Carter finding the fountain of youth somewhere along the Allegheny River), it certainly makes things a lot tougher for Mike Sullivan and Co. when your top line is routinely getting smoked by Bergeron and his crew.

Jarry is the true wild card

Well, you had to know this was coming, right? 

While my gut is telling me that the Penguins have a higher ceiling than the Isles — man, it’s awfully tough to ignore just how horrid Tristan Jarry has been in net for Pittsburgh. 

Even though Jarry has managed to stand tall against Boston this season (.931 save percentage in five games), don’t let anyone tell you otherwise — he’s … not great. 

Of course, Jarry’s horrid giveaway that led to Josh Bailey’s 2OT winner in Game 5 will headline most *critiques* against the Penguins’ netminder, but he wasn’t much better in Game 1 — getting beat clean multiple times by the Islanders. 

If Pittsburgh does manage to win the next two games and move on, one has to think that Boston and its big guns have to be licking their chops at the prospect of unleashing a salvo of shots against Jarry. 

Among the goalies remaining in the East Division playoff picture, Jarry is far and away the worst — posting a goals saved above expected rate of -9.60. In other words, he gave up close to 10 more goals than what he was expected to surrender during the regular season. 

Perhaps Pittsburgh finds some salvation in the form of Max Legace or the return of Casey DeSmith from injury — but for right now, it seems like Jarry is the Pens’ top option in net. And that should horrify Penguins fans. 

Unlike Jarry, Isles youngster Ilya Sorokin has fared much better — posting a .951 save percentage against the Penguins through five games this postseason. 

Sorokin’s strong play has been a godsend for the Isles with Semyon Varlamov likely fighting through an injury. Still, you wonder if Varlamov might warrant another look in net if New York advances, given that the veteran went 5-1-0 with a .943 save percentage in seven starts against Boston in 2021. 

Whether it be Varlamov or Sorokin, the Islanders present a steeper challenge for the Bruins, especially when compared to both Jarry and the goalie roulette that the Capitals had to deal with in round one.

Our pick?

If it wasn’t for the play of Sorokin, you could make the case that an Islanders team already trending downhill far before the playoffs began would already be bounced by Pittsburgh. But sometimes, all you need is a hot goalie to survive and advance — especially when the opposing netminder is handing out freebies. 

On paper, the Penguins should be the more lethal team here — especially given their depth scoring, star power and the fact that they’ve been on a roll for months now (32-11-2 to close out the regular season). 

But for as imposing an opponent as Pittsburgh might be, all that gets negated if Jarry remains in net. 

Sure, the Islanders may not have the same ceiling as the Pens when everyone is firing on all cylinders, but methinks Boston would much rather be stuck in track meets and potting 4-5 goals a night against the Pens than fighting through 2-1 nail-biters with the stingy Isles. 

I think Boston should win both of these matchups in Round 2, but the disparity in net is so great with Jarry that Boston should welcome a showdown with Crosby and Co. later this weekend.

Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, HockeyViz and JFreshHockey.