NFL Notebook: In AFC East, Patriots have the early schedule advantage and have to take advantage

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It's always a bit of a fool's errand to delve too deeply into NFL schedule strength in May — things always change rapidly and teams routinely go from the worst to first — but we're going to make an exception this time because the schedule is a big storyline as the Patriots try to take back what was theirs for 20 years — the AFC East.

By most measures that involve some projection, the Patriots hold the schedule advantage when it comes to the three teams expected to vie for the AFC East Title: New England, Miami and defending champ Buffalo.

SharpFootballStats.com

Patriots 17th toughest
Bills 8th toughest
Dolphins 4th toughest

NFL.com

Patriots 32nd toughest
Bills 27th toughest
Dolphins 24th toughest

But where the Patriots really gain an advantage, is how the schedules are stacked.

We know the Patriots had a lot of turnover this offseason, especially in free agency. That usually lends itself to a team being better later in the season than they are earlier (think the Bucs last year, who were 7-5 and then they won their last eight, including the Super Bowl). For a team like the Patriots, it would be better to have a softer open to the schedule, and have the tougher games later, when the team should be more in sync.

Well, on paper in May, that's exactly the way things appear for the Patriots. And the double good news for New England is the Bills and Dolphins have much tougher opens to the season. That means the Patriots have a big opportunity to jump out to a lead in the AFC East, and could hold serve down the stretch if they are indeed better.

Sharp Football's schedule rankings through Week 8:

Patriots 9th easiest
Bills 18th
Dolphins 30th

Time to make hay. Let's go through it.

WEEK 1

Dolphins at New England
Steelers at Bills

Patriots will be tough at home, and that's a tough matchup to start for Buffalo. But it is home.

Patriots 1-0
Bills 1-0
Dolphins 0-1

WEEK 2

Patriots at Jets
Bills at Dolphins

Is Miami going to fall to 0-2, or will they rise up and knock off Buffalo?

Patriots 2-0
Bills 2-0
Dolphins 0-2

WEEK 3

Saints at Patriots
Dolphins at Raiders
Washington at Bills

Three tough matchups, but two are at home. Revenge of FitzMagic in Buffalo?

Patriots 3-0
Bills 2-1
Dolphins 1-2

WEEK 4

Tampa at Patriots
Colts at Dolphins
Texans at Bills

Tompa Bay comes back, and who did the Dolphins piss off in the league office?

Patriots 3-1
Bills 3-1
Dolphins 1-3

WEEK 5

Patriots at Texans
Dolphins at Tampa
Bills at Chiefs

An early bye week for the Patriots gets them a leg up.

Patriots 4-1
Bills 3-2
Dolphins 1-4

WEEK 6

Cowboys at Patriots
Dolphins at Jaguars
Bills at Titans

Miami finally gets a break, and you know Mike Vrabel would love to screw with the Bills.

Patriots 5-1
Bills 4-2
Dolphins 2-4

WEEK 7

Jets at Patriots
Falcons at Dolphins
Bills bye

Early-ish bye for Buffalo with 11 games to play? Another win for the Patriots.

Patriots 6-1
Bills 4-2
Dolphins 3-4

WEEK 8

Patriots at Chargers
Dolphins at Bills

This could potentially be a huge swing week in the division, with Miami almost being out of it with a loss. Buffalo coming off a bye is not going help them. If Miami can make a big stand and knock off the Bills, that would give New England a huge advantage.

Patriots 7-1
Bills 5-2
Dolphins 3-5

WEEK 9

Patriots at Panthers
Dolphins at Texans
Bills at Jaguars

I know I projected a Patriots loss here because they always have a strange loss, but this should really be an AFC East sweep to set up the second half sprint.

Patriots 8-1
Bills 6-2
Dolphins 4-5

It would be really helpful for the Patriots to open up a bigger lead, but with both matchups against the Bills still to come, New England will have everything in their control — and they should be a much-improved team by then.

The other teams have the advantage in the second half. 

Weeks 9-18 strength of schedule

Dolphins 1st-easiest
Bills 9th-easiest
Patriots 27th-easiest

Here are Sharp Football's weekly opponent forecasted win total:

As you can see, the Patriots have to find a way to pile up the wins early because the Bills and Dolphins will load up down the stretch. Not sure the Patriots can afford any early slip-ups if they want to take back the division.

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NICKEL PACKAGE

1. The Patriots posted pictures from their rookie camp — that's the extent of the media's access this week — and two stood out:

Josh McDaniels watching Mac Jones closely with playaction (you mean he'll actually do the fakes, unlike Cam Newton?).

And my guy Ronnie Perkins standing up at ROLB.

No big surprise. Just nice seeing them in those spots.

2. Total bush-league crap by the Broncos to release Ja'Waun James and not pay the money owed to him after he tore his Achilles in an off-season workout away from the facility. As usual, that's just an excuse to get rid of a bad contract. It was during the voluntary portion of the offseason. You would think teams would be encouraged their players workout before they arrive at mini-camp. The NFLPA better fight this. Do you think the Bucs would release Tom Brady if he injured himself working out with Alex Guerrero? Of course not, the optics would be terrible. But because it's Brady... The NFLPA needs to fight for a consistent policy.

3. Apropos of nothing, Bills rookie OT Tommy Doyle signed his contract in full uniform. Hardo alert. He'll fit right in:

4. I love how everyone wants to get on board with Bill Belichick "changing his ways" and "being more collaborative" in the draft process ... and his first two picks were from Alabama, and he drafted his third Michigan linebacker in as many years. Oh, and New England took another three players from the Senior Bowl (Jones, Rhamondre Stevenson, Joshuah Bledsoe). Yup, big departure.

5. Deja vu? Former Patriots special teamer Nate Ebner might be a free agent with the Giants, but that's not expected to last. Coach Joe Judge, via the NY Daily News, said the team fully intends to re-sign him ... after he returns from a stint with the rugby team at the Olympics. “That’s an experience I’ve been through with him before,” Judge said. “Actually he returned from the Olympics in 2016 and had a tremendous year for us. So I’ve gone through this before with him. I understand exactly how his training applies [with] rugby and can lead into football, and look, honestly it was one of his most productive years ever.”