Bruins vs. Capitals playoff preview: Why I'm picking Boston in 5 games

With the first round of the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs set to begin Saturday, here is a look at five questions that could decide this best-of-seven series between the Bruins and Capitals, along with other predictions and preview content:

No. 2 Washington Capitals vs. No. 3 Boston Bruins

Schedule

Game 1: Saturday, May 15 at 7:15 pm ET (TV: NBC, SN, CBC, TVA Sports, RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub)
Game 2: Monday, May 17 at 7:30 pm ET (TV: NESN, NBCSN, SN, CBC, TVA Sports, RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub)
Game 3: Wednesday, May 19 at 6:30 pm ET (TV: NESN, NBCSN, SNE, SNO, SNP, SN360, TVA Sports, RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub)
Game 4: Friday, May 21 at 6:30 pm ET (TV: NESN, NBCSN, SNE, SNO, SNP, SN360, TVA Sports, RADIO 98.5 The Sports Hub)
Game 5: Sunday, May 23 at TBD (TBD)
Game 6: Tuesday, May 25 at TBD (TBD)
Game 7: Thursday, May 27 at TBD (TBD)

Capitals Record: 36-15-5 (77 points — 2nd in East Division)

Washington Team Stats:

Goals Per Game: 3.36 (4th in NHL)
Goals Against Per Game: 2.88 (17th in NHL)
Power-play Percentage: 24.8 (3rd in NHL)
Penalty Kill: 84.0 (5th in NHL)

PROJECTED LINES

BOSTON 

Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak
Hall-Krejci-Smith
Ritchie-Kuraly-Coyle
DeBrusk-Lazar-Wagner

Grzelcyk-McAvoy
Reilly-Carlo
Lauzon-Miller

Rask
Swayman

WASHINGTON

Alex Ovechkin - Nicklas Backstrom - Anthony Mantha
Conor Sheary - Lars Eller - Tom Wilson
Daniel Sprong - Michael Raffl - Daniel Carr
Carl Hagelin - Nic Dowd - Garnet Hathaway

Dmitry Orlov - John Carlson
Brenden Dillon - Justin Schultz
Zdeno Chara - Nick Jensen

Vitek Vanecek
Craig Anderson

Bruins’ record against Capitals this season: 4-2-2

Backed by the play of noted ursine-hater Braden Holtby in net (he of a .939 save percentage in 22 games against Boston), the Capitals have regularly served as the bane of the Bruins’ existence for most of the past decade — with Washington at one point holding a 14-game winning streak against the B’s that stretched from Oct. 11, 2014 to Jan. 10, 2019.

But over the last few years, the Capitals have been surprisingly mortal against Boston (perhaps coinciding with Holtby coming back down to earth and later departing ahead of this season) — with Boston going 1-1-1 against the Caps in 2019-20 before holding a 4-2-2 record against them in this COVID-shortened campaign. 

And even though the physical Caps have done some damage against the Bruins (headlined by Tom Wilson’s dangerous cheap shot that landed Brandon Carlo in the hospital back on March 5), the Bruins have more than managed to punch back — be it in terms of scraps (five fighting majors, two misconducts in eight meetings) or on the scoresheet. 

Anchored by a pair of young netminders in Vitek Vanecek and Ilya Samsonov, the Caps’ defense has been put on the ropes by Boston this year — with the B’s averaging 3.25 goals per contest against Washington this season. The only teams that Boston managed to pot more goals against in the East this season were the lowly Sabres and the sans-defense Flyers (each at 4.00 goals per game).

Pretty impressive stuff, especially considering one of those games was diluted by the fact that the Providence Bruins basically battled (and nearly took a point) from the Caps in the B’s regular-season finale on Tuesday. 

Of course, the Caps have also managed to land some shots against Boston, leading all opponents in goals against vs. Boston at 3.13. Granted, some of that is also skewed some by that 8-1 drubbing that Washington dropped against them back on April 11. 

You know, the game where the Bruins played without Charlie McAvoy, Tuukka Rask, Jaroslav Halak, Matt Grzelcyk, Brandon Carlo and Kevan Miller — and then promptly dealt for Taylor Hall, Mike Reilly and Curtis Lazar approximately 90 minutes later. 

FIVE QUESTIONS

Can the Caps’ stop Boston’s top-six unit?

Let's face it — most of the storylines that will envelop this series will surround the boogeyman that is Tom Wilson and the optics of Zdeno Chara going to battle against the team he captained for 14 seasons. 

But when it comes down to it, this series will be decided by Washington's ability to slow down the Bruins double-headed monster in the Bergeron and Krejci lines — because over the last five weeks, many clubs have yet to find a proper answer. 

The Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak line has been as effective as ever, outscoring opponents by a 33-17 margin this season — even with Pastrnak *only* scoring 20 goals in 48 games. Given the Caps’ flaws in net, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise that Boston has feasted against them this season, with Marchand pacing the pack with seven goals and 13 points over his seven meetings with the Caps. 

Of course, what has put Boston’s even-strength offense over the top since the deadline has been the emergence of a second line of David Krejci, Taylor Hall and Craig Smith — with Boston holding a 13-1 edge in goals scored during their time out on the ice together. 

Hall in particular has been a cheat code in Boston’s forward corps, with Boston leading in goals (15-1) and shots on goal (131-73) during his 200 minutes of ice time. That’s certainly a byproduct of Hall finding his scoring touch once more (eight goals in 16 games), but his ability to push the puck through the neutral zone, playmaking on the rush and his attention to details down the other end of the ice have made a sizable impact — giving a revitalized Krejci (21 points in last 16 games) a full arsenal of weapons at his disposal.  

From a pure matchup perspective, it sure seems like the Caps are in line for a miserable time against both of Boston’s top lines — especially given that Washington doesn't have a steady presence between the pipes (more on that later.)

So far this season, the Capitals haven’t had much success in terms of putting together a line that has managed to slow down Bergeron and Co. It’s been particularly lopsided when Boston’s top line has earned reps against the Caps’ line of Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Tom Wilson — with Boston holding a 6-0 edge in goals scored during the 27 minutes of 5v5 ice time in which Bergeron and Ovechkin have been out on a shift at the same time.

During Washington’s lone game against the revamped Hall-Krejci-Smith line on April 18 at TD Garden, it was the Caps’ other top-six unit in Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie and Anthony Mantha that earned the most reps against the B’s second line — with Boston and Washington each tallying a 5v5 goal during that head-to-head matchup (Boston ultimately won the game, 6-3). 

Washington will absolutely take it if both the Krejci and Backstrom lines cancel one another out during this series, but if the Bergeron line continues to put Ovechkin and Co. on the ropes time and time again in this series, Washington is going to be in trouble. 

These Bruins are better equipped to handle the grind of bigger foes in the postseason than in years past, especially with guys like Nick Ritchie, Kevan Miller and Jeremy Lauzon in the lineup — while guys like Trent Frederic, Jarred Tinordi and others will be ready to draw into the lineup if Cassidy needs a bit more heft. 

Of course, Boston doesn’t want these games to devolve into a Charlestown Chiefs game. But Boston should have the personnel in place to match whatever the Caps throw at them. 

"I think we've always been able to play both ways – we've been able to skate with teams and we've been able to dish out our share of hits and take them to make a play, so that's got to be our mentality — is we're gonna play the right way and play hard and hard also means having the puck and taking a hit to make a play,” Cassidy said. “Hard means retaliating in the right way. It means if they happen to finish a check hard and we don't like it — sometimes you got to take a number and say, 'Okay, they banged on one of our guys, we got to go put some pressure on Carlson or Backstrom, whatever the case may be. 

“And that's how you answer some of that, is by being physical within the boundaries of the law against their skill as well. And I think teams that do that are effective, because that will frustrate them as much as anything, seeing their top guys getting hit. So that's a little bit of what every team does, I think, to neutralize some of that.”

Can Bruins stay out of the penalty box?

Cassidy’s comments on taking numbers and avoiding reactionary plays during this heavyweight bout against the Caps shouldn’t come as a surprise — because if there’s one area where Washington can tilt the series back in its favor, it’s through repeated reps on the man advantage. 

Boston’s penalty kill might be an area of strength on this club (86.0% success rate - second in NHL), but such hasn’t been the case against Washington’s lethal power play — with the Caps cashing in on nine of their 29 bids against Boston for a 31% success rate. 

Now, injuries might play a part in just how efficient the Caps’ power play will be to open this series — especially Kuznetsov and Oshie, who has particularly burned the B’s form the bumper spot this season (three power play goals in seven games against Boston). 

(Ovechkin draws plenty of attention while stationed at the left circle, but Oshie has been absolutely lethal against Boston this season when serving as the bumper on Washington's power play.)

Given how much of a slugfest this series should be, it’s to be expected that quite a few players will be spending some time in the sin bin over the next two weeks. But Boston — the third-most penalized team in the league — can’t make things easy for the Caps off of ill-advised retaliatory strikes or careless stick infractions. 

If Boston can keep its emotions in check and keep these games at even-strength play,  the matchups should fall in Boston’s favor. 

How healthy are the Capitals?

With Charlie Coyle cleared to play in Game 1, the Bruins are arguably the healthiest they’ve been all season long — with Ondrej Kase standing as the lone Bruin currently on an uncertain recovery timeline. 

Washington is not so lucky — with a couple of key cogs in the Caps’ lineup either still not on the ice or nursing some painful ailments.

While Ovechkin, Backstrom and Carlson were all dealing with lower-body injuries during the final stretch of the regular season, all three are expected to be cleared for Game 1. Oshie, hampered with what looked like a painful ankle injury this week, joined Washington’s practice on Friday but his availability is still in question for Game 1. 

Michal Kempny is also day-to-day with a lower-body injury, but the biggest wild cards for the Caps might be Kuznetsov and Samsonov — who have been on the COVID-19 Protocol list for 11 days now. At this point, it sure seems like both Caps players are setting themselves up for a full 14-day stint on the COVID list, which would rule them out for at least Games 1 and 2. That’d be a brutal hit for Washington, to say the least. 

If the Caps are either missing top-six wingers or rolling out a banged-up roster in the early going of this series, Boston needs to pounce and give themselves a cushion against a team like Washington that would ideally want to drag Boston into a war of attrition. 

Can Vitek Vanecek keep Washington afloat? 

As we noted in our early predictions regarding this series, the top mismatch between the Bruins and Caps lies in net — as you could make the case that Boston has the three best netminders between both clubs in Tuukka Rask, Jeremy Swayman and Jaroslav Halak. 

From our predictions piece:

Both the Caps and Bruins can hold their own in scraps. Both have high-powered top-six units. Both can tilt the ice in their favor on special teams. But when you the tale of the tape shifts down to defense and goaltending, it sure seems like Boston has a sizable edge, especially among its netminders.

Even though he's been decidedly meh over his last two starts, Tuukka Rask should still inspire plenty of confidence going into this first-round matchup, with the B's longtime starter going 7-1-0 with a .923 save percentage after returning from a lingering upper-body injury last month. And while Boston ideally won't need to utilize him, the B's have an awfully intriguing backup in net in Jeremy Swayman, who ranks second among all East Division playoff goalies in goals saved above expected at 5.25 — despite playing in just nine games.

Meanwhile, the Caps' situation in net is ... concerning.

While Swayman and Rask rank second and fourth among East Division goalies in goals saved above expected, Washington's tandem in net in Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek rank 9th and 10th, respectively, out of 11 goalies in their division with goals saved above expected rates of -5.09 and -9.41.

Especially if Samsonov is ruled out for the time being due to COVID protocols, it sure seems like Vaneck is going to be the guy in net — which is less-than-ideal for the Caps, given that the netminder posted a .905 save percentage against Boston through seven games.

And even if Samsonov does come back, it’s not as though he’s fixing to be the savior here — with the goalie posting an .872 save percentage against the B’s in 2021. 

Rask will surely have his hands full with a Cups offense that can bury goals in a hurry, but the Bruins have to be licking their chops at the prospect of landing punches against a netminder like Vanecek. 

X-FACTORS

BRUINS

Power play: Boston’s offensive resurgence at even-strength and 5v5 play since the deadline has been well-documented at this point, but you could very well make the argument that a Bruins team averaging 3.4 goals per game over their 17 contests has a whole ‘nother gear it can hit if its top power-play unit rounds back into form during the playoffs.

These days, Boston’s man advantage may not be anchored by a blue-line QB in Torey Krug, nor has Pastrnak rifled home nearly as many goals as expected from his usual office at the left circle — but it’s not as though Boston’s power play is a shell of its former self. 

A hot start (headlined by a bevy of Ritchie tallies at the net front) buoyed the Bruins’ power play at the start of the season — allowing them to remain as top-10 unit by year’s end (21.9% success rate - 10th in league). 

But for as much as Boston’s power play was stuck in a rut for extended stretches in March and April, they actually managed to end on a bit of a high note — cashing in on six of their last 20 opportunities to close out the year (30%). 

The emergence of that second power-play init as more than just a complimentary piece has paid dividends, but let’s face it — that top unit is far too talented to be kept in check for long. Yes, opposing PKs have done a better job cutting off seam passes to Pastrnak, but a sniper of his caliber sure seems due for a regression to the mean after going 26 games without a power-play tally. 

Another honorable mention here — Boston’s third line of Nick Ritchie, Charlie Coyle and Sean Kuraly. Not only will this heavy trio be called upon regularly to combat the Caps’ physicality, but they’ve also been a pretty great generator of offense when grouped together — with Boston holding a 4-1 edge in goals scored during their 45 minutes of 5v5 ice time together. 

CAPITALS

Hagelin-Dowd-Hathaway Line

If the Caps are going to be able to slow down some of Boston’s top-six unit, methinks that a strong series from the Caps fourth line of Carl Hagelin, Nic Dowd and Garnet Hathaway will play a large role in said venture. 

As we noted above, Bergeron and Co. have regularly owned the Caps when matched up with the Caps’ top-six units, but don’t be surprised if Peter Laviolette opts to roll his fast-skating, agitating checking trio against either the Bergeron or Krejci line when given the chance to dictate matchups. 

That trio is everything you want in an effective checking unit, be it Hagelin’s jets, Hathaway’s knack for annoying the bejesus out of the opposition and plenty of scoring punch between all three skaters. 

If they do their job and throw their weight around on the forecheck, the Caps stand a chance at minimizing just how much damage Boston’s big guns can dole out in this series. 

WORTH NOTING

Expect no heartfelt exchanges between the Bruins and their former captain in this series, not until the handshake line. “It's always fun to line up against Zee and obviously we have a special bond,” McAvoy said. “But this is Bruins vs. the Capitals and that's really it."

OVER/UNDER

Fights involving Tom Wilson - 2.5

Give me the over here — although it might depend on just how long this series lasts. Of course, even if Wilson only ends up dropping the gloves once or twice, expect plenty of tomfoolery (and hopefully that’s the worst of it) when the Caps’ polarizing power forward is on the ice. 

Frederic may not draw into the lineup for Game 1, but if Wilson is making his presence felt in this series away from the scoreboard, don’t be surprised if the pugnacious B’s forward is added to the lineup. Wilson is great at getting opponents’ blood boiling (hell, he dismantled the Rangers in less than a week), but his short temper means that a guy like Frederic can get him off his game in a hurry. 

“Rightfully so, he's a unique player in the league,” Don Sweeney said of accounting for Wilson. “Their team does present some challenges, they're a physical team. If you look at our matches this year, I think we handled that very well. Obviously, the Carlo injury aside, I think our team, all teams have to be prepared to play any style any night.

"You don't pick your opponents, you just prepare for them as they come and worry about your own game. I think that's something we've tried to do over the course of my time here, is be the best that we can be, and address some areas of need and fill some holes as we go along throughout the season, try to identify them. Be really honest about them if you have some needs, and then go to war. That's honestly what it comes down to. You've got to have everyone in and ready to chip in."

PREDICTION

Expect plenty of goals, scraps and heavy checks over the next two weeks — but when you go down the list of matchups in this anticipated series, it doesn't seem like the Caps have any answer for Boston's top-six, especially given the state of their goaltending. We could have a couple of 6-4 games on the horizon, but if both the Krejci and Bergeron lines can carry their play from the last few weeks into the playoffs, they can and should dissect Washington in their own zone. So long as Rask holds the edge over Vanecek in this series (as he should), Boston moves on. 

Bruins in 5. 

Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, HockeyViz and  MoneyPuck.