5 early predictions for a Bruins-Capitals playoff matchup

We'll be rolling out plenty of deep dives and breakdowns in the days leading up to an anticipated heavyweight bout between the Bruins and Capitals in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs — but for now, here's a quick look at five early predictions before the bodies start flying down at Capital One Arena on Saturday night. 

1. The victor of this round isn't moving on unscathed 

Brad Marchand might have said it best Monday when it comes to sizing up the B's first-round opponent.

“If you look back at the start of the year, you probably could have guessed it was going to play out this way,” Marchand said of the Caps. “It adds another storyline to the game and to the series. They’re obviously a very dominant team. Big, physical. That’s obviously where they gain a lot of emotion and energy from that. They have a lot of guys that play that way. They’re built to be heavy and be a playoff team. They’re built for the playoffs.”

As I noted in my column from the weekend advocating for a Bruins/Caps playoff series — any fears regarding the Capitals' heavy style of play come the postseason certainly holds some merit.

The poster child of the Caps' bruising game might be Tom Wilson, but Washington has a number of big bodies that can dole out some heavy punishment, including Alex Ovechkin, Brenden Dillon, Garnet Hathaway and a certain 6-foot-9 defenseman from Slovakia. Now, granted, while the Bruins and Brandon Carlo have unfortunately been on the receiving end of one of Wilson's cheap shots this season, this Bruins club is not the New York Rangers and have the personnel to punch back and match Washington's heavy checks when the blood begins to boil over the course of this series.

Granted, Bruce Cassidy may have to tinker with his lineup at times in order to inject a bit more heft into the lineup at times (opting for perhaps a scrapper like Trent Frederic or Jarred Tinordi for a game or two — or opting for Chris Wagner over a speedster like Karson Kuhlman in series like this), but expect the Bruins to come into this first-round matchup looking to set the tone physically as well. Beyond just firing a shot across the bow by way of some heavy checks in the early going, Boston very well could smell blood in the water given how many Caps regulars are expected to still be nursing some ailments come Saturday.



While Charlie Coyle and Ondrej Kase are the only two Bruins currently tabbed as "injured" (Coyle is expected to be cleared by Saturday), the Caps have been mired in a tough stretch with the injury bug — with T.J. Oshie and John Carlson both dealing with lower-body injuries that will keep them out of the lineup on Tuesday night. Alex Ovechkin is also considered a game-time decision with a nagging lower-body injury on Tuesday, while both Wilson and Nicklas Backstrom have also be dealing with similar ailments. Add in the fact that both Evgeny Kuznetsov and Ilya Samsonov remain in COVID protocol — and even if Washington has its full compliment of stars back by Saturday, it seems rather evident that they won't all be at 100 percent.

With the book already out on the Caps as far as their extensive injury report, expect Boston to try and finish checks and dole out as many welts as they can in the early going. And expect for the Caps to counter, of course.

The sooner this series wraps, the better for the victor — because this very well could be a war of attrition between two very good clubs.

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2. Boston's top advantage will be in net

Both the Caps and Bruins can hold their own in scraps. Both have high-powered top-six units. Both can tilt the ice in their favor on special teams. But when you the tale of the tape shifts down to defense and goaltending, it sure seems like Boston has sizable edge, especially among its netminders.

Even though he's been decidedly meh over his last two starts, Tuukka Rask should still inspire plenty of confidence going into this first-round matchup, with the B's longtime starter going 7-1-0 with a .923 save percentage after returning from a lingering upper-body injury last month. And while Boston ideally won't need to utilize him, the B's have an awfully intriguing backup in net in Jeremy Swayman, who ranks second among all East Division playoff goalies in goals saved above expected at 5.25 — despite playing in just nine games.

Meanwhile, the Caps' situation in net is ... concerning.

While Swayman and Rask rank second and fourth among East Division goalies in goals saved above expected, Washington's tandem in net in Ilya Samsonov and Vitek Vanecek rank 9th and 10th, respectively, out of 11 goalies in their division with goals saved above expected rates of -5.09 and -9.41.



With Boston's 5v5 offense rolling since the deadline (they've outscored opponents by a 43-21 margin, while the Caps are -2 during that same stretch), the B's have a chance to put either Vanecek or Samsonov on the ropes early and often in this series.

Despite Washington's reputation as a big, imposing club — Boston has been able to generate plenty of chances against them this season — averaging 3.57 goals per game through seven contests against Washington. The only team Boston managed to average more goals against during the 2021 season than the Capitals were the lowly Sabres (4.00 goals scored per game) — and the Caps have only faced the Bruins with Hall/Reilly/Lazar once this season (a 6-3 Boston win).

3. Boston will focus on staying out of the box

Boston might hold a pretty decisive edge as far as goaltending goes, but if the B's continue to make a habit out of parading to the penalty box, the Caps are going to absolutely pick apart Rask/Swayman. That's not an indictment on Boston's goaltending as it is a ringing endorsement of just how lethal Washington's top power-play unit is. While Boston's penalty kill sits second in the league in terms of success rate (85.9%), they've been quite mortal against the Caps' big guns — surrendering nine goals on 29 opportunities (a 69% success rate) against Washington.

Given that disparity, expect Cassidy to stress discipline in this series for a B's roster that ranks fourth overall in penalty minutes this season. While Boston will need to be physical and match the Caps as far as brawn goes in this series, Washington knows that the power play is one area where they can tilt fortune back in its favor, so don't be surprised if guys like Hathaway and others do what they can to get under the skin of B's skaters and try to prompt them into taking unnecessary trips to the sin bin.

4. The Ritchie-Kuraly-Coyle line serves as difference maker 

With the B's top line of Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak expected to earn plenty of head-to-head matchups against the Caps' top line of Ovechkin, Kuznetsov and Wilson, Boston is going to need some supplemental scoring given that their big guns are also going to be busy down the other end of the ice. Of course, the natural reaction is to immediately point to a second line of Hall-Krejci-Smith that have outscored opponents by a 13-1 rate during their time together as a trio. But with those three also expected to earn reps alongside either the Caps' similar trio in Mantha-Backstrom-Oshie or perhaps a quick-skating fourth line of Hagelin-Dowd-Hathaway, they should also have their hands full.

But even though both Boston and Washington have stout top-six units, the Caps may not have an answer to a heavy, physical third line of Nick Ritchie, Sean Kuraly and Charlie Coyle. While they might be a bit of an unorthodox trio given Kuraly's past struggles at 3C and Coyle's preference of playing the pivot, it's tough to argue with the numbers — with Boston holding the edge in both goals scored (4-1) and shots on goal (31-17) during their 45 minutes of 5v5 ice time together.

That line is already going to be crucial given how physical this series is going to be, but if that bottom-six unit can also fight inside for Grade-A ice and bury chances against Vanecek/Samsonov, the Caps might be unable to stop Boston's scoring salvo.

5. Expect plenty of **narratives** centered on the B's and one particular defenseman on the Caps

Sure, Wilson remains a hot topic around the league when it comes to his lengthy rap sheet and the controversy surround the NHL's inability to hold him accountable, but if we're delving into **narratives** going into this series, the chief one will almost certainly be Boston facing off against its former captain in Chara.

While Chara departed Boston this offseason after not being guaranteed regular playing time (a bit ironic in hindsight, given that Chara would have almost certainly played most nights with the B's given their slew of injuries on the blue line), the 44-year-old blueliner has settled into more of a complimentary role in Washington, regularly skating on their third D pairing.

Of course, he's not the perennial Norris Trophy candidate he was during his glory years in Boston, but Chara still should bring plenty of value to the Caps in this series, be it his prowess on the PK, size, leadership and —  considering the matchup, a hefty amount of knowledge regarding his club's first-round opponent.

Don't be surprised if Boston's speedier top-six weapons up front like Marchand, Pastrnak or Hall target Chara when it comes to getting to loose pucks and cycling around Grade-A ice, but as we saw earlier this year, it's going to be jarring to see Chara exchanging pleasantries with his old teammates via post-whistle shoves and face washes during this series.

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"Penalty kill, defending, playing against top people," Cassidy said of Chara's impact with Washington. "But I’m not in the locker room so I don’t know how much he’s been able to influence it. I’m sure he has. He’s a great leader, been around, and I think this is truly one of the reasons that they signed Zee is for this time of year coming up. So his impact probably hasn’t even truly been felt yet. And we’re gonna be the first ones to find out what it is.”