No one's ever going to confuse me with a draft expert. I may have my binkies and players of interest, but the Patriots pick their players and then we'll evaluate for a few years and see where things come out.
Especially with the third day draft picks and UDFAs, we'll take a little time, make some calls and watch some tape to give some real initial thoughts
But the Patriots certainly made these picks with a reason in mind. A breakdown of those reasons, going over the depth chart, position battles and possible ramifications down the line — from Mac Jones to Tre Nixon...
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First round pick: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
Why was he picked? Duh.
Fallout: The post-pick demeanor of Bill Belichick on Thursday night was something of a talking point in the aftermath of the first round. But I can tell you the Patriots are excited things worked out as they hoped — they were not surprised Trey Lance went third to the 49ers, but the popular NFL opinion is that Kyle Shanahan changed his mind during the process.
When will Jones play? Nobody has any idea. Mike Lombardi said on his podcast he thinks Jones will sit the entire season. I doubt that, unless Cam Newton is a lot better than we think he is with a better supporting cast. It's true that Jones is very smart, and should quickly surpass Newton and Jarrett Stidham in terms of his knowledge of the system and being able to execute it. But Jones will have to adjust to the speed of the NFL game, especially defenses. But he's going to have a great training ground against a stout Patriots defense that will give him everything he can handle. If Jones is the better QB by the end of camp, he's going to start at some point.
That being said, I expect the order to be Newton, Stidham and then Jones for a while. But I think it will become apparent to all of us on the camp hill quickly that Jones just operates the offense on a different level. Still, unless the Patriots start out on fire, I could see a little disagreement brewing between Belichick and Josh McDaniels if Belichick is insistent on keeping Newton as the starter, while McDaniels gets a bit frustrated he can't run his entire offense.
Second round pick: Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
Why was he picked? Yes, the Patriots added a lot of beef this offseason with Lawrence Guy coming back, and signing Davon Gaudchaux, Henry Anderson and Montravious Adams. And the Patriots will be much better against the run because of it. But the Patriots are bereft of developmental depth after Byron Cowart failed to seize his opportunity to show he can be a starter. To me, Barmore potentially gives the a legit backup at all three defensive line spots. And with Gaudchaux and Anderson on two-year deals, he's the DT of the future — if he takes care of his business off the field.
Fallout: I think it's an open competition for backup line spots in camp. I can't see Barmore challenging for any starting spot initially, but he's in the mix with Adams, Spence, Cowart and Carl Davis to be in the rotation. I think the Patriots might take it slow with Barmore and make sure he stays on the right path. They don't usually like to give too much too soon to rookies, especially those with some risk involved.
Third round pick: Ronnie Perkins, DE, Oklahoma
Why was he picked? Outside of Jones, probably my favorite Patriots draft pick. Did you hear how many times Belichick mentioned how physical Perkins was? That is no accident. I think it was it was an indirect shot at, among others, Chase Winovich, Anfernee Jennings and, possibly, Josh Uche. There's too much finesse in that group, for what the unit needs to become. Perkins is just a nasty, tough football player similar to Dont'a Hightower. In the words of one NFL source, "He's a nasty little (bleeper)." Patriots need more of those guys, and fewer guys who just run around. Not sure if it's as a rookie, but I expect Perkins to edge and ILB looks similar to Hightower at some point.
Fallout: Initially, he's direct competition to Winovich and Jennings on the edge. May the best run stuffer win. We've been talking about this going back to last season when Winovich wasn't staying on the field and his issues within the team, but I would not be surprised if he's traded at some point. If Perkins stays on the edge, he's the anti-Winovich. That's no accident. Will be interesting to see where Jennings plays going forward. The only LB group is up in the air.
Fourth round pick: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Oklahoma
Why was he picked? The only running back currently on the 2022 roster are Damien Harris and J.J. Taylor. Everyone else — Sony Michel, Brandon Bolden, James White — is set to be a free agent, with the decision on Michel's fifth-year option due in short order. Stevenson, given his special teams ability, could be a ready replacement for Bolden.
Fallout: I still would be surprised if the Patriots don't pick up Michel's option because it's less than $5 million. I highly doubt the Patriots know right now that Stevenson is better than Michel. Certainly you can find running backs, but I think the wise thing is to pick up the option, see how Stevenson does, and then possibly look to trade Michel at some point in camp when teams might have injuries.
Fifth round pick: Cameron McGrone, LB, Michigan
Why was he picked? Hightower and Bentley are both free agents after this season (although I expect Hightower, if he indeed returns and looks like his old self, to get a cap-fueled extension). We don't know where Raekwon McMillan, Jennings and Uche fit in the LB scheme of things. In short, the Patriots don't have a good Mike linebacker successor on the roster and McGrone, if he stays healthy, should give them an option there.
Fallout: Linebacker is going to be one big free for all during training camp — it could be dizzying trying to figure out who is where. But there's a lot to figure out in that group.
Sixth round pick: Joshuah Bledsoe, S, Missouri
Why was he picked? Safety is another group with a lot of '22 issues with Devin McCourty and Adrian Phillips set to become free agents after this. I expect McCourty to get the Hightower treatment at some point, but Bledsoe will have a chance to take things slow and learn.
Fallout: Initially, I think Bledsoe is being groomed to take Phillips spot should he get too expensive, but a lot of things are in flux because Dugger could get more and more time at linebacker. Safety is at linebacker at this point — a lot to figure out among a lot of pieces, but no pressing issues.
Sixth round pick: William Sherman, OT, Colorado
Why was he picked? The Patriots have three major line pieces — Isaiah Wynn, Trent Brown and Ted Karras — entering contract years, pending Wynn's fifth-year option, which I also expect to be picked up. The Patriots have no future interior backup at any spots, and the word is Sherman could play every spot from center to tackle in the NFL.
Fallout: Yodny Cajuste ... this is it. Either he pops and sticks, or he's gone and Justin Herron, Karras and Sherman are the major backups going forward. If Sherman or Herron takes a big step, that could make Wynn expendable after his option year.
Seventh round pick: Tre Nixon, WR, UCF
Why was he picked? Not complicated. Receiver is always a position where you're looking to add someone to see what happens. Nixon (6-0, 187) has good speed (4.44) and three-cone drill (6.81). Reportedly had 13 drops his last three seasons. Nixon is almost a priority UDFA at this point. Throw him into the mix.
Fallout: As with every receiver, the Patriots will see how he navigates the playbook. Make plays on the field, and make the team.
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KEY INITIAL POSITION BATTLES
QB1 (Cam Newton vs. Mac Jones): Belichick can say whatever he wants about Newton being the starter, but if Jones outplays him on the field during camp and in the preseason, Belichick will play the kid at some point.
RB2 (Sony Michel vs. Rhamondre Stevenson): Michel has a huge edge and should stick around for a while, but you never know.
Slot WR (Jakobi Meyers vs. Gunner Olszewski): With two TEs on the field a lot, the 3 WR set might not get many looks.
Backup OTs (Korey Cunningham vs. Justin Herron vs. Yodny Cajuste vs. Williams Sherman): Herron showed a lot of promise ... will Cajuste show anything ever?
Backup edge (Chase Winovich vs. Ronnie Perkins vs. Rashod Berry vs. Anfernee Jennings): A lot of talent in this group and they're all different. Not many spots. Who sticks?
LB2 (Raekwon McMillan, Ja'Whaun Bentley, Jennings, Josh Uche): Anything could happen at the other linebacker spot, including the inclusion of safeties.
CB4 (Joejuan Williams, Michael Jackson, D'Angelo Ross, Myles Bryant, Dee Virgin): A lot of bodies need to be sorted out and it could be important if Stephon Gilmore and/or JC Jackson are dealt at some point.