Close your eyes and envision this...
The Patriots with $83.301 million in cap space this year — $10 million more than any other team in the league.
In the draft, the Patriots would enter with a full complement of picks, their first- and second-round picks and TWO third-round compensatory picks in the top 100 or so picks. That's good ammunition in order to move up in the draft, if needed, to land their preferred players from the 15th overall pick.
Now wake up.
Because that's not reality. That's the other reality the Patriots could — should — be living this offseason, if Bill Belichick didn't make the fateful, possibly panicked, decision to place the franchise tag on Joe Thuney a year ago.
We said it at the time, and several times since, tagging Thuney was a very big gamble by Belichick:
Bill Belichick gambled he could — and should — get more for Thuney in a trade than a third-round compensatory pick (same as his draft level after four years of development), and the coach has lost to this point.
Belichick should cut his losses, get as much for Thuney in a trade, and move on.
If not, Belichick stands to lose even more.
The Patriots aren’t going to franchise Thuney again next year, and risk having to pay him — after the cap remains, at best, flat after the pandemic — $17.74 million (120 percent of his ’20 cap) in 2021. Thuney’s agent, Mike McCartney, represents Kirk Cousins and is not afraid of playing the tag game. It’s a weapon for a player with little health risk and Thuney has been an Iron Man to this point.
So right now, the Patriots face playing 2020 with Thuney, paying him $15 million and getting the same third-round comp pick in 2022.
That might make sense if you weren’t already paying Mason $9 million. It makes no sense now.
Belichick, scrambling after Tom Brady left for Tampa, thought he should get more than a third-round compensatory pick for Thuney — especially if he went to a salivating divisional rival like the Dolphins or Jets — so Belichick figured he’d tag and trade Thuney, for at least a second-round pick. Made sense in theory. But then Belichick heard crickets on the trade front.
I don’t want to hear from all of you who will try to explain Belichick’s decision by thinking the Patriots are here because the team is going to be a run-first team and it’s part of some brilliant master plan, especially with Cam Newton, to load up for one season?
Come on, let’s live in reality, people.
The reality the Patriots now live in is one in which they have $15 million less to spend — the price of a Stefon Diggs, Devante Adams, George Kittle ... could the Patriots use a player like that? — and one less third-round pick.
Why?
Washington made the wise move to tag Brandon Scherff for a second-straight year (Panthers tackle Taylor Moton was also tagged), which means Thuney will be alone as the top free agent on the entire offensive line come the start of the league year. He will get a huge offer almost immediately.
Assuming the Patriots sign one high-priced free agent — can you imagine if they don't at this point?! — it will offset Thuney's signing. That means the Patriots will NOT get a compensatory pick for Thuney.
That means they spent $15 million AND a third-round pick to go 7-9.
Among Belichick's poor personnel decisions of the years — no one's perfect; and no one expects perfection — this has to rank up there. The Patriots are out the price of a Pro Bowl starter, and a pick that has a decent chance to be a starter down the line.
And let me add this, to those who think it was worthy to try to lock up Thuney: the Patriots never made an offer to Thuney for an extension.
Ouch.
I don't want to hear any excuses. This wasn't that hard to see coming down the pipeline (even I saw it). You can't say that Belichick sees things five steps ahead or that he always gets great value — as has been talked about in the Trent Brown trade — and be OK with the Patriots wasting $15 million and a third-round pick. You can't have it both ways.
And if Belchick truly believed what he said during last season, that it was a year to adjust the cap, then this decision was even worse.
“This is kind of the year that we’ve taken to, I would say, adjust our cap from the spending that we’ve had in accumulation of prior years. We just haven’t been able to have the kind of depth on our roster that we’ve had in some other years. That’s provided more opportunity for younger players. So it’s a combination of all the reasons.”
If Belichick knew the 2020 season was basically going to be a step back to get the cap right, after the Patriots "sold out" to win another Super Bowl title, then that was the perfect time to let Thuney go.
The Patriots didn't sign really any free agents. Put Thuney right behind Tom Brady and with Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins for players who left and signed big contracts, and cash in those comp picks in 2021.
Put that $15 million into the 2021 war chest where you need a quarterback, receivers, tight ends and defensive linemen, and add that third-round pick to the 2021 stockpile to get your groove back in the draft.
Now that's a rebuild that could be a quick one.
Instead, Belichick just watched cash and a good draft pick walk out the door for ... a 7-9 season.
Guess Belichick doesn't see everything coming.
But, but, but, but...
I can hear the Belichick apologists starting up. They've been busy on my Twitter account.
The biggest: He tagged Thuney to get Brady to stay.
Actually, the Patriots tagged Thuney after Brady informed them he was leaving. Here's the timeline:
March 16th, early evening: Tom Brady tells Patriots he is leaving. He announces it on the 17th.
March 16th, 11:30 p.m.: Patriots place franchise tag on Thuney.
March 19: Thuney signs franchise tender.
This feeds into what I was told, that the money was earmarked for Brady. When he left, Belichick decided to squat on an asset in Thuney, and possibly get more than that third-round comp pick.
It turns out, that was a very big miscalculation.
Tags have some good news for the Patriots
While the Bears and Bucs tagged receivers Allen Robinson and Chris Godwin, respectively, the Patriots received good news when the Lions (WR Kenny Golladay), Chargers (TE Hunter Henry) and Titans (TE Jonnu Smith) did not use their tags.
Expect the Patriots to be involved with all three once free agency starts on Monday.
