One of the more shocking moves of the Patriots' offseason — you know, besides that QB in Florida — was the team's decision to place the franchise tag on guard Joe Thuney for $14.781 million.
We've made no secret of our fondness for Thuney's play in recent years. He has steadily built himself into an All-Pro-type player, especially off a 2019 season in which he was virtually flawless:
Joe Thuney (99.2%): Not that he slacked off any other season, but he picked the right time to have a sterling year with just 8 pressures (1.1 percent) and four bad runs (0.9 percent) allowed. Should have been a Pro Bowler but was a deserved second-team All-Pro. Simply a phenomenally consistent performer who will get paid handsomely this offseason. A terrific player.
Grade: A-plus.
There's no question Thuney deserved to get paid, and he likely would have supplanted Brandon Brooks ($14.05 million AAV) at the highest-paid guard in the league with teams like the Dolphins and Jets salivating over Thuney.
But not by the Patriots.
They had already given right guard Shaq Mason an extension in 2018 that made him one of the highest-paid guards. Sure, Bill Belichick will pay top of the market for players, normally when forced to (Logan Mankins, Vince Wilfork, Devin McCourty), but not multiple players in the same group.
The year before Mankins was traded, only Sebastian Vollmer made decent money on the line. Nate Solder was on his rookie contract, and Dan Connolly and Ryan Wendell didn't make much. Now? The Patriots are heavily invested in Thuney, Mason, Marcus Cannon and David Andrews.
New England is fifth in the league in offensive line spending, and the only other position group higher is the defensive backs at $55.4 million. The offensive line makes just about as much as the quarterbacks, running backs, tight ends and defensive line combined.
Plus, as great a player as Thuney is, he's still a guard. Even NFL coaches will tell you that, like running backs, you should be able to find a passable guard at just about any time, especially if you've already found one (Mason).
So it was a surprise to see the Patriots use nearly $15 million of their cap space on Thuney this offseason. The way it was explained to me was, that money had been earmarked for Tom Brady and when he left, Belichick thought using the space on Thuney would be a good investment since a tag-and-trade (like Dee Ford and Frank Clark the year before) brought compensation that was better than a compensatory pick. But Thuney is not a pass rusher, and the Patriots have not actively sought out a trade — their MO to keep leverage is to have other teams come to them. No takers so far.
Now, the clock is ticking on the Patriots. The team has until July 15th to reach a contract extension with Thuney, or else his cap number will hold until the conclusion of the season.
Everyone knows the Patriots are up against the salary cap. NFLPA records have them at an NFL-worst $650,989 in cap space before Cam Newton's contract, which is expected to leave them with less than $300,000. The team is going to need somewhere between $3 million and $5 million in cap space just to function with the normal roster transactions during the season — before you entertain the thought of trading for another player to help the team.
Can the Patriots get some more space in other ways? Sure. They could release/trade the likes of Mohamed Sanu, Rex Burkhead, Marcus Cannon and Jermaine Elumunor, and pick up about $14 million in space.
But the easiest way for the Patriots to set their cap right and to build momentum towards next season is to do something about Thuney's number: either via an extension, or trade him at some point. A look at the current situation on both fronts, and how this might play out:
To this point, there have been no discussions about an extension even though the Patriots signaled publicly and privately at the time of the tag that they would pursue a long-term extension.
This is not a surprise because the Patriots usually wait until closer to a deadline to start negotiations — no reason to show your cards early.
Thuney's agent, Mike McCartney, is one of the smartest in the game. He's the man who orchestrated Kirk Cousins playing on two franchise tags in Washington, and then getting a fully guaranteed deal with the Vikings. McCartney is not afraid of the tag, and will use that to start negotiations.
The Patriots, if Thuney played on the tag for two years, would have to pay the guard $31.874 million the next two seasons. That would basically be the starting point for negotiations. McCartney knows there's no way the Patriots would tag Thuney twice so, really, the negotiations would start with the current tag $14.781 million plus the gurantees Thuney would get somewhere else less than a year from now (Andrew Norwell received $30 million guaranteed from the Jaguars in 2018).
So in a negotiation, the Patriots would likely have to start at two years and at least $30 million guaranteed.
Can't really see that happening.
There is an x-factor, however. The current pandemic has really changed the landscape and no one knows how it will affect the league's financial situation going forward. You can factor that in with the injury risk. Could Thuney decide that the injury risk associated with the tag plus the risk of contracting Covid-19 is too much? Could he take less and the more sure-thing now? It's possible, and I have a strong belief the Patriots will use that as part of their pitch.
But in the end, I think McCartney and Thuney hold firm — this could be his only chance to strike it rich and he's busted his rear to get that big bit of the apple.
If/when Thuney rejects the Patriots' final offer, then you have to be on the lookout for a trade. Belichick hated Welker playing on a $9.5 million tag in 2012 and he caught like a billion balls. Belichick tried to replace Welker with Julian Edelman, but Edelman got hurt and Welker was firmly back in the mix.
If Belichick didn't like paying Welker, how is he going to feel about paying a guard nearly $15 million — when he already has one making $9 million (Mason)? And no, who the quarterback is or what the offense is going to be has nothing to do with this. It's not part of any genius Belichick plan. It's purely an economic decision — and the fact that the Patriots have zero other players they can count on at guard.
Absent an extension, I would expect Belichick to see if any number of candidates can give the team equitable play for cheaper: Hjalte Froholdt, Eluemunor, Yodny Cajuste and rookies Michael Onwenu, Justin Herron and Dustin Woodard.
If someone steps up, then a trade of Thuney amplifies, especially when injuries hit around the league (Eagles already lost Brandon Brooks).
Then it will be a straight Belichick/Ernie Adams valuation:
- Level of play of replacement vs. Thuney, plus the financial calculations in that;
- Trade compensation vs. expected 2022 third-round compensatory pick;
- Whether creating cap space with other trades/releases would be a better decision for 2020.
BEDARD'S PREDICTION
My gut feeling is no extension is reached, and no one pops in camp to the point the Patriots feel confident to have them replace Thuney as a starter. Plus, Thuney is the new fail-safe at center should Andrews have another health issue, and if Najee Toran and Woodard are not NFL-caliber.
I think Thuney plays on the tag, and strikes it rich a year from now. But Belichick will try like hell to find other internal options and save that $15 million, who could be flipped to next season and add to the 2021 war chest.