Bedard: With opt-outs back, defensive line may be a priority for the Patriots

It's the proverbial good problem to have.

As we've reported since January, the Patriots are expecting all of their Covid opt-outs to return to the fold. Now, whether they make the team come September is a different story.

But let's deal with the known entities, namely Dont'a Hightower and Patrick Chung.

It would be a huge shock if they are not part of this team come September, even if you think they're making too much money: $12.45 million cap number for Hightower in the final year of his deal (could be up for a short extension), and $5.133 million for Chung, who is signed through 2024(!) when he will be 37. Belichick loves Chung, especially.

Hightower proved his value to this team while sitting on the sidelines, as the linebacker position was pretty much a trainwreck without him. They need him badly, and it will likely be back in the middle unless they sign someone to play there.

Chung? That's a different conversation. He'll be 34 this season, and it seems like he has a tougher time getting to the end of each passing season with injuries.

Plus, the team made Kyle Dugger their first draft pick last year, and Adrian Phillips played great and is five years younger than Chung.

So how do the Patriots fit the pieces? That's where the defensive line comes in. And instead of subtracting someone, the Patriots could go a little bit more aggressive to amp up the defense.

First, let's look at where the middle of the Patriots' defense stands right now, with free agents in yellow. Players in bold are returning starters:



Obviously the Patriots have a bunch of free-agent issues on the defensive line, as only Byron Cowart returns as a starter — and he was one in name only, not in play. He did not take a step forward last season.

With Hightower back in the middle, that pushes Ja'Whaun Bentley to a limited role at weak-side linebacker, and Anfernee Jennings makes sense on the strong side, if he improves. If Bentley improves, he could be MLB, and Hightower could be on the strong side (Hightower changes game to game and within games, at times).

At safety, there's an issue. Phillips, Chung and Dugger are all box safeties. How do you play all of them?

This is where the Patriots could choose to attack two of their biggest weaknesses on defense: defending the run, and team speed.

One tool teams use to measure their team speed — how hard they hit and pursue plays — is forced fumbles. The Patriots were dead last with five forced fumbles and four recovered fumbles. The previous year, the Patriots were in the middle of the back with 15 forced and 11 recovered.

The Patriots could drop all pretenses, and play both Phillips and Dugger at linebacker around Hightower, with Chung in space more to cut down on his wear and tear. They both were de facto linebackers last year anyways. Depending on matchups, you could swap Chung for either player to matchup with a certain tight end (Dugger struggled in coverage as a rookie).

This way, the Patriots get two of their hardest tacklers in the box, and they increase their speed in the front seven with so many offenses doing more read option and the like.

That would look something like this (this is a scenario where you could see a Duron Harmon — another Belichick favorite — returning to reprise his deep safety role ... yeah, I know):



I'm not opposed to this at all. It would help bring the amoeba back, and the Patriots could get back to attacking the opposing offense like they did 2018-19.

But this can only happen if one thing happens: the Patriots have to invest heavily in the defensive line. This only works if the front four dominates the opponent against the run. They have to occupy blockers and wreak havoc to keep the linemen off the safety/linebackers.

With Lawrence Guy left basically by himself with the departure of Danny Shelton and the mysterious injury to Beau Allen (who is under contract for this season), and with Cowart not ready for a major role, the Patriots were a disaster against the run last year, finishing 32nd in FootballOutsiders.com's rush DVOA (and way behind No. 31, Kansas City). That has a huge trickle-down effect on the rest of the defense that was:

29th in 2nd down defense
32nd in 3rd and 4th and 1 conversions
31st in 3rd and short
29th in rushes of 4+ yards on first down
30th in first down efficiency
27th on rushes of 4+ yards

To improve, the Patriots would need to bring back Guy, and give him a lot of help to keep him fresh.

Among the possible cap casualties:

DT Danny Shelton, Lions
DT/DE Grover Stewart, Colts (very doubtful he's released)
DT Kawann Short, Panthers
DT Akiem Hicks, Bears (doubtful)
DT Sheldon Richardson, Browns
DT Shamar Stephen, Vikings
DT Allen Bailey, Falcons
DE Henry Anderson, Jets
DT Jurrell Casey, Broncos
DT Malcom Brown, Saints

Unrestricted free agents

DT Shelby Harris, Browns ($10ish million AAV)
DT Ndamukong Suh, Bucs ($7ish million AAV)
DT Sheldon Rankins, Saints ($7ish million AAV)
DT Tyson Alualu, Steelers ($6ish million AAV)
DT Steve McClendon, Bucs ($3ish million AAV)

Pick at least two from those lists, to pair with Guy and, perhaps, Allen and Cowart. Patriots would need four bonafide interior run wreckers.

Then you also have to make sure the edge is solid, and at this point, I'm not sure the Patriots are ready to back Winovich, Uche or Jennings there — but they'd be great situational pass rushers if the Patriots could get to third and long (they would with this attack).

Some of the cap casualties could play on the edge, plus these free agents would be of interest:

Olivier Vernon,  Browns (coming off Achilles)
Jordan Jenkins, Jets
Pernell McPhee, Ravens

Basically, the Patriots would need to get back to building a wall with the front four, and flow with their quicker sub linebackers to fill the gap. Dramatically improve the run defense, and suddenly the Patriots can get into better pressure packages and help their cornerbacks more.

If the Patriots are going to keep Chung, Phillips and Dugger — and why wouldn't they? — then this is one way for them to deploy them, and improve the defense overall.

But it would take substantial investment in the defensive line. It wouldn't be flashy or sexy, but it would make this defense a lot better quickly.