The good news for the Red Sox? Plenty of free-agent starting pitchers remain available as the calendar year winds down.
The bad news? They haven't signed any of them yet.
Matt Andriese is seen as more of a depth option, someone who can contribute both in relief and as an occasional spot starter. But Andriese hasn't started more than five games in a single season since 2017, so while he's capable of stepping in when injuries or poor performance from others take place, he can hardly be seen as a viable, regular starter.
For that, the Red Sox will have to spend considerably more than the $1.85 million they guaranteed Andriese for 2021.
There are any number of options available to them. Here's a list of free-agent starters to whom the Sox have been linked, with a breakdown of each candidate's positives and negatives:
JAKE ODORIZZI
Positives: A case could be made that Odorizzi is the best available free agent option after Trevor Bauer. Certainly, he's been among the most durable of major league starters, with 159 or more innings thrown every season from 2014 through 2019. Having pitched for the Tampa Bay Rays for most of his career, Odorizzi is a known commodity to Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. Odorizzi has a history of competing in the American League East, after pitching for the Rays for five seasons.
Negatives: The 2020 season was a lost one for Odorrizi, who, because of a chest injury and recurring blister issues, was limited to just four appearances. The blister issues are especially problematic since they can become chronic for some pitchers. It may be a relatively small sample size, but Odorrizi has historically pitched poorly in Fenway, with a career 6.26 ERA over 10 starts.
Skinny: If you consider the Red Sox are set -- by midseason, anyway -- at the top of their rotation with Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale, then Odorizzi would slot in nicely in the No. 3 spot, just ahead of Nathan Eovaldi, his one-time Rays teammate. He's not a glamorous option, but he would eat innings, and last year notwithstanding, has demonstrated he can be counted on for 30-plus starts annually. A three-year deal worth in the neighborhood of $40 million would likely win his services.
TOMOYUKI SUGANO
Positives: Sugano has been an elite performer in Japan, having twice won the Eiji Sawamura Award -- the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young Award -- as well as an MVP and another ERA title. He was highly impressive in the 2017 World Baseball Classic, beating Team USA in the semi-finals and holding a powerful American lineup to a single run over six innings. The Red Sox have plenty of history with Japanese pitchers -- from Daisuke Matsuzaka to Koji Uehara to Hideo Nomo and as such, are better prepared than most teams to help Sugano make the many necessary cultural and competitive adjustments coming from the Japanese professional leagues to MLB. Through the posting process, he would cost "only'' salary, with no loss of draft picks or player cost.
Negatives: There's always a degree of uncertainty when it comes to Japanese pitchers making the transition to North America. Everything about the experience -- from level of play, size of the ball, training methods -- is different, making projection difficult. Sugano is 31 and has a lot of mileage on his elbow and shoulder. His velocity and overall performance dipped in 2019, though he rebounded nicely in 2020 (14-2, 1.97 in 20 starts). There remains some lingering concern about his right elbow.
Skinny: Sugano is not overpowering -- with a fastball that currently tops out at 92-93 mph -- but he has a deep repertoire of pitches that he can command and throw effectively. He profiles here as a very strong No. 3 starter who has shown himself to be highly durable and effective against all manner of opponents. Sugano represents a relatively affordable path to finding a solid, middle-of-the-rotation option.
J.A. HAPP
Positives: Happ is a tested, proven American League East competitor, having spent eight of the last nine seasons pitching for either Toronto or the Yankees. He also has a history of pitching well in Fenway, with a career ERA of 2.57 in a dozen starts in Boston. Happ may be 38, but in the four full-length seasons prior to 2020, he had averaged 170 innings per year. Given his age, Happ would likely be satisfied with a one-year deal, limiting the Sox' exposure on a contractual basis.
Negatives: Happ would join a rotation that already boasts at least two other lefties, giving the rotation a left tilt that may not represent the best balance. At 38, there's some question about how much tread is left on the tires. Happ got involved in a testy back-and-forth with the Yankees last year, insisting that they were purposely limiting his workload to avoid triggering a vesting option for 2021.
Skinny: Despite some misgivings about his age, a short-term deal might represent a good gamble here as Happ would provide the Sox with a proven, established starter who has pitched exceptionally well in their ballpark and is comfortable pitching in a division with hitter-friendly ballparks.
TAIJUAN WALKER
Positives: Walker is still only 28, on the young side for a free agent. He pitched exceptionally well for Toronto, which acquired him as the trade deadline, going 2-1, 1.37 in six starts down the stretch. After missing almost all of both 2018 and 2019 recovering from both Tommy John surgery and a shoulder capsule strain, there's the sense that he's only now beginning to realize the expectations that were set for him when he was a first-round pick of the Mariners in 2010.
Negatives: Most obviously, there's the less-than-stellar history when it comes to durability. Walker's fastball velocity has been down somewhat over the last few seasons, though that's perhaps understandable given the time off as he rebuilds arm strength.
Skinny: Walker represents a classic chase of "low risk, (potential) high reward." He won't command a ton of money (MLB Trade Rumors projection of two-year, $16 million) seems absurdly high at this point. As such, he could be seen as a low-cost solution as a No. 4 starter.
COREY KLUBER
Positives: Kluber's resume is highly impressive. In one five-year stretch, he won two American League Cy Young Awards and finished third two other times. A case could be made that, from 2014-2018, he was one of the top two or three starters in the game. He was also extremely durable, with almost 1.100 innings in that five-year span. He spends his offseason in Winchester, which could give the Red Sox an edge in signing him.
Negatives: As much of a workhorse as Kluber was for that five-game stretch, the last two seasons have seen him contribute a grand total of eight starts and 32.2 innings as he's battled a series of injuries -- from a broken forearm to a shoulder issue the last two years.
Skinny: Kluber is said to be healthy and will throw for interested teams sometime early in January. It's logical to assume that he'll have to have his innings capped at some point in 2021, having throw so little in the previous two seasons. He'd be a fine addition to a rotation -- so long as he's not being counted upon to take the ball every five days for six months.
RICH HILL
Positives: Even at age 40, Hill performed well last year, making eight starts and posting a 2-2 record with a 3.03 ERA and a 1.164 WHIP. Since 2014, Hill has never posed an ERA higher than 3.66 and he has a habit of pitching well in the postseason, with a career ERA of 3.06 in 13 October appearances. Having grown up locally, Hill would be comfortable pitching at home. He's already been part of the Red Sox twice -- from 2010-2012 and then again in 2015. And he's traditionally performed well at Fenway, with a 1.65 career ERA over 25 appearances.
Negatives: He's 40. He's undergone Tommy John surgery twice in his career and undergone shoulder surgery. He's only topped 20 or more starts three times since 2008. His strikeout rate of 7.2 per nine innings in 2020 was his lowest since 2010.
Skinny: The Red Sox are in desperate need of innings, with Rodriguez and Sale by definition limited in their workload after not pitching at all in 2020. Hill won't give them 30 starts or 180 innings, but can still be very effective when he's healthy. The fact that at least three other playoff teams (Yankees, Padres, Dodgers) have shown interest is an indication of how highly regarded he remains in the game.
_______________________
