Robb: The Celtics could be in for bumpy ride to begin season

The Celtics begin the 2020-21 NBA season with nine games in 14 days, only three of which come at home. None of those contests at the TD Garden (Milwaukee, Brooklyn, Memphis) will be gimme wins by any means. In fact, Boston will probably likely only be favorites in three of these first nine contests (@ Detroit x 2, vs. Memphis).

Boston’s start to the year would be challenging enough even if they were at full strength with this roster. With key pieces sidelined and perhaps the most underwhelming preseason of the Brad Stevens modern era on the floor, the odds are high the road will be rocky out of the gate for this group. A short preseason creates plenty of challenges for everyone in the NBA but the Celtics’ revamped bench rotation will have to adapt quickly or a sub .500 start over the first 10 games is very much in play, beginning with the Bucks on Wednesday night.

"Well, I think we're gonna have to, obviously, I think there’s when you first look at the schedule,” Stevens explained, “you look at how challenging the first couple of months are, and obviously it starts right out of the gate with this really really good Milwaukee team. And so you're going to learn a lot about yourself first and foremost. And I think that there's a positive in that.”

December and January will be big for information gathering for Boston’s brass. Without Kemba Walker and Romeo Langford, opportunities will be plentiful for everyone from Javonte Green to Aaron Nesmith. Some younger guys will start to build trade value, other guys will lose whatever minor trade value they had left if they fail to break into the rotation or underwhelm while in it. As Danny Ainge and the front office build for a future that will be keyed upon putting the right talent around Tatum, all of this information will help dictate what direction he tries to go in next.

The Bucks will provide a useful test on opening night as a litmus test. They added a Celtics trade target this offseason in Jrue Holiday but there is going to be an adjustment period for him as he gets familiar with his new teammates in Milwaukee as well. A revamped bench that’s full of low-cost players with question marks (Bobby Portis, Bryn Forbes, Torrey Craig) will provide a useful gauge for Boston’s undermanned bench to measure themselves against. The Celtics should be able to hold their own against these guys with Giannis Antetokounmpo on the bench, rather than being run over like they were against Brooklyn’s extremely deep reserves on Friday. Whether they have learned their lesson after that beatdown will come down to discipline with decision-making.

“We're going to have to be great with our shot selection, because then that allows you to have a chance to set your defense against one of the best transition teams in the game,” Stevens said. “And then we're gonna have to be great defensively at being solid in our system. Because if you're not, they just exploit you over and over. They obviously present a ton of problems. I think they're very very talented. Adding Holiday is a big big addition for them. And, you know, so we'll learn a lot about ourselves for sure, but I think if we, if we have poor shot selection we make bad rim choices, it won't matter what the rest of the plan might be. We got to. We got to handle those things first."

The Celtics have seen poor starts derail seasons early in the past (2018-19 stands out) but the buy-in at the top should be better this time around. It won’t matter as much in an improved Eastern Conference though if the players and coaches can’t find the right formula to make up for talent gaps.

“We just got beat by 30 in our last preseason game,” Stevens said this week when asked about contending aspirations. “I’m just worried about (Wednesday’s) first few minutes. I don't think, when you coach in Boston and you play in Boston, there's one goal that never changes year to year. Each team is different, and we'll see if we get good enough to be in that conversation. We certainly haven't been yet, but you shouldn't be two or three weeks in. But we have a long, long way to go to be in that conversation. So it's more about proving that we belong in it with our play, and not any predictions or not any prognostication. I think that's where we are. If we're fortunate enough to play well throughout the year, then I'll have a better feel for answering that question later. Each team is different. Each team has its own set of challenges.”

With games coming fast and furious in the next 10 games, we will have a pretty good idea where this Celtics team stands sooner rather than later. A win tonight against the Bucks would make everyone forget about a (potentially) meaningless preseason pretty quickly and signal that this group may be ready to hold down the fort as they await reinforcements.