NFL Notebook: Tom Brady's not deteriorating, but his confidence in what's around him in Tampa is

Much has been made about Tom Brady's performances over the Bucs' last four games, which included two losses in three games heading into todays big showdown against the Chiefs.

And, of course, the outspoken comments by coach Bruce Arians was just red meat to everyone.

“I think he’s getting confused a few times with the coverage,” Arians said Tuesday. “That might be the cause for some inaccurate balls, but I don’t see it at all in practice. We’re not missing the deep ball in practice, that’s for sure. It’s just a matter on Sundays hitting them."

Technically, Arians is not incorrect. Brady did misread a couple of coverages in key spots — including on the ill-fated final interception — but Arians' comments were also a bit disingenuous and, of course when it comes to Arians, a bit self-serving.

Arians could have — and should have — tipped his cap to the Rams because there were a couple of really nice disguises in big spots (Those guys get paid too, but an offensive genius like Arians would never get beaten by a defensive coordinator, right?). And there were NOT multiple misreads. There were a few. Nothing out of the ordinary.

But the bigger issues with the Bucs don't lay with Brady. They deal with the fit with Brady, and setting him up for success.

How has Brady really played to date? Let's catch up, and then get into the truth about the Bucs' problems.

WEEK 6: BUCS 38, PACKERS 10

Thanks to Aaron Rodgers gifting two touchdowns to the Bucs, Brady didn't have to do much in this one.

He missed Rob Gronkowski on a post when he just stared at a route combination in the flat, then did a nice job keeping a third and goal play from the 7 alive long enough for WR Tyler Johnson to lose his defender.

Brady did get pissed off at Chris Godwin for not running back to him on a 3rd and 5.

The back-shoulder TD throw to Gronk was perfect, as was the long DPI he got throwing to Scotty Miller. But largely Brady didn't have to do much in this game.

WEEK 7: BUCS 45, RAIDERS 20

Thought Brady played really well in this game, although you knew the Raiders weren't going to be much of a challenge with a scheme that relies on a lot of zone and really isn't all that talented.

Brady had nine plus plays in this game, against just four minuses. Brady's two touchdowns to Miller were terrific, and he had a 22-yard dime to Evans.

Funny, no issue with the deep ball in this game with a real running attack and a weak opponent. Funny how that works.

WEEK 8: BUCS 25, GIANTS 23

Just an awful game for Brady and the Bucs' offense overall. At one point, I had Brady for one plus play, and seven minuses. He did rebound with three big throws late to help save this game.

Sure seemed to me like Joe Judge, who was the Patriots' receivers coach last season, had a lot of intel on how to make Brady uncomfortable. Namely, the Giants showed one thing pre-snap, and another post-snap. That always annoys Brady, and it can throw off the receivers, who are already struggling with what routes to run against what coverage.

Also, the Bucs are starting to get too shotgun happy. Brady and this offense is much better with him under center.

WEEK 9: SAINTS 38, BUCS 3

An even worse game for Brady (3 plus, 8 minus) and the Bucs' offense.

Now, there are definite danger signs showing as this offense is starting to trend more towards Arians, who always ignores his QB's health for the sake of big plays. Brady was hit multiple times in this game (Bucs gave up 23 total pressures and he was hit eight times), including a few of the hard variety and it's starting to spook Brady. That just can't happen with a 43-year-old QB, especially Brady. A high-pressure game like this can speed up Brady for multiple games. That's happened later in his career.

Less rushing — the scoreboard didn't help — and less motion from the receivers, which is playing to the advantage of the defense. You have to offset the pass rush somehow. Bucs declined to. And Evans continues to look less than thrilled, although he's been a good Boy Scout most of this season.

• Outside of Scotty Miller, Brady has little faith that his receivers are going to run the routes the way he sees them. Plus, the Bucs have much fewer route adjustments, so Brady is often fighting against 20 years of experience when he sees a certain coverage and the receiver doesn't run it like a Patriots receiver would. That's a lot of deprogramming.


• I think the plays are fine overall — not an abundance of deep shots — and they are running closer to the Patriots passing game than Arians' mad bomber scheme, but the Bucs are approaching it wrong. This offense is much, much better and more efficient when Brady is under center and they have an effective running game. They have to find a way to do that more, but...


• The offensive line is poor. They're dealing with injuries all over the place and Brady, especially against the Rams, had little faith they were going to hold up so Brady sped himself and that's not good for anybody (side note: that Rams front is freaking fast, wow).


• The Bucs' screen game is not nearly good enough to act as a sub for a running attack. It's really not good, and the backs can't catch. James White is probably looking real good about now to Brady.


• Way, way, way too much shotgun spread with five wide. That is not playing to Brady's strength, not when he can't make real audibles at the line of scrimmage. The Bucs have run more bad plays this season because of their inability to check than Brady had in 20 years in New England. Get him under center a lot more — that's why you have like eight tight ends (and too much gun and run in 2009 was why the Patriots drafted Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in 2010). Brady has a 115.1 rating on play-action this season — sixth in the league. His completion percentage is 5 points higher and his yards per attempt are 3.1 higher on play-action (third-best differential in the league). This isn't hard.

In this divisional showdown, it was Vance Joseph's dominant defense that delivered the finishing blow. ?@AZCardinals | #NFLTurningPoint pic.twitter.com/r4DgbwSHgV

— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) October 30, 2020