What are Celtics' options after Gordon Hayward declines $34 million player option?

Gordon Hayward took until the very last minute on Thursday to elect to not pick up his $34.1 million player option, a move that allows him to test free agency when it begins on Friday evening. It’s important to remember that most options are still in play now that this decision has been made, so let's go over what's on the table for both sides — beyond Hayward not making $34 million next season.

1. Gordon Hayward could still re-sign with the Celtics on a long-term deal: This is probably the least likely scenario but it’s still in play. Boston maintains Bird Rights on him, so the Celtics will have the ability to offer whatever they want here. If they want to outbid any of Hayward’s suitors on the free agent market, they will have the chance. However, if Hayward wants a fresh start somewhere else, this probably won’t matter for the Celtics — but until we know more about his intentions, it’s still on the table as a possibility (albeit an unlikely one).

2. Celtics send Hayward to another team via a sign-and-trade: This is still the most likely scenario. Hayward would need to sign at least a three-year deal for any sign-and-trade to be legal under trade rules. However, if he wants to go to a destination that doesn’t have cap room, this would be a way for the Celtics to acquire some assets in return via matching salary for facilitating the deal. We brainstormed a few potential trade matches earlier this offseason here at BSJ in this regard, but it’s important to note now that Hayward’s salary matching will become easier now that he won’t be making $34 million (likely somewhere in $20-25 million range is a fair guess as a starting salary for a new deal).

3. Hayward signs outright with a team that has salary cap room: This is the worst-case scenario for Boston since Hayward would walk to a new team, leaving the Celtics with no compensation and no way to replace his money (since the team is still over the cap). At the moment, there are three potential suitors in play that could create enough cap room to sign him. The biggest ones are the Knicks and Hawks (about $40-45 million each in cap room) with the Hornets looming as a wild-card threat ($19 million). Charlotte would need to clear a little more salary off the books to put together a competitive offer but that shouldn’t be tough for them to pull off.

While the rumor mill has been buzzing with the Knicks and Hawks' reported interest in bringing in Hayward all week, it’s important to note that there are a lot of potential appealing names also on the open market that could be targeted by any of these teams over Hayward. They include Fred VanVleet, Goran Dragic, Christian Wood, Joe Harris, Montrezl Harrell, Paul Millsap, Serge Ibaka, Danilo Galllinari, Jerami Grant, Davis Bertrans, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

Hayward is better than a lot of those guys, but would a team like the Hawks prefer two or three guys on that list over giving a 31-year-old Hayward a big long-term contract? The same question can be asked for the Hornets and Knicks. And does Hayward really want to play on a bad rebuilding East team? We won’t know for sure until Friday night when the free-agent dominoes start to fall but he's posturing that he will.

Ultimately, if Hayward wanted to remain in control of his destiny above all other factors (including money), opting out was the right play for him. He can still return to Boston if he wants (although it would cost him millions in salary for this season if he did) and he leaves the door open for his camp to maintain leverage to push a sign-and-trade deal for a preferred destination with the threat of him outright signing elsewhere still in place (for now). That changes quickly if other teams use cap room on other guys when free agency begins, so it's a risky play by Hayward's agent Mark Bartelstein without a firm offer in place somewhere. Hayward has made well over $100 million in his career, so money may not be the top priority in his next step.

Just how much the Celtics and Hayward’s camp are looking out for each other here remains to be seen, but that should become more clear in the coming days. In the meantime, we will find out how much the Celtics are willing to commit to try to bring him back (if they offer him an extension) or if they are simply looking to be a trade facilitator at this point to net a return for him.

Either way, it’s far from an ideal situation for the Celtics to potentially lose a max free agent for the second straight year, but this story isn’t over just yet despite the opt-out. In the meantime, the one silver lining for Danny Ainge is that the Celtics will have some additional payroll flexibility for next season with the use of a full-mid level exception ($9.2 million) and bi-annual exception ($3.6 million) in free agency if Hayward opts not to return in some form instead of just the taxpayer mid-level ($5.7 million).

For now, the waiting game continues, with the leverage now firmly in Hayward’s camp. He’s going to take a pretty big hit in the wallet, but he ensured he remains in control of his destiny now for next season. Now it’s time for him to get paid again in Boston (possible but unlikely) or find a new landing spot.