McAdam: Lack of big-name additions to ballot could mean no one gets into Cooperstown this time

On Monday, the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum unveiled its annual ballot, with voting to be conducted by the Baseball Writers Association of America. The ballot has 25 names, which is smaller than usual. A typical ballot usually has more than 30 names. Every year, a screening committee selects a host of players from a list of eligible first-time players.

Results will be announced on Jan. 26th and the induction ceremony will take place July 25. The question is: will anyone be elected this time?

That would seem like a question worth asking. Among holdovers from the last ballot, only one player collected more than 61 percent last year. And the additions to this year's ballot do not include any obvious candidates for first-year admission.

This year's ballot has 11 new names: Mark Buehrle, A.J. Burnett, Michael Cuddyer, Dan Haren, LaTroy Hawkins, Tim Hudson, Torrii Hunter, Aramis Ramirez, Nick Swisher, Shane Victorino and Barry Zito. Of those, only Victorino ever played for the Red Sox.

From the list of first-timers, it would seem that Buehrle might have the best case. He was remarkably durable, with 14 consecutive seasons of 200 or more innings for the White Sox. Even in the final year of his 16-year career, he fell just shy of the milestone with 198.2 innings.



Buehrle won 214 games and posted a .572 winning percentage. He also threw both a no-hitter and a perfect game and collected four Gold Glove and was selected to the All-Star game five times. But his career ERA was an unremarkable 3.81 and he received Cy Young Award votes just once his career.

His career WAR was 60, which is a modest total. Of pitchers already elected to the Hall, 18 have WAR totals less than Buehrle, and most of those are either pitchers from the 19th century or early 20th century, or relievers like Mariano Rivera and Hoyt Wilhelm.

Beyond Buehrle, it's hard to even consider someone else. Ramirez is probably the best new position player on the ballot. And his .283/.341/.492 with 386 homers and one Top 10 MVP finish is hardly the stuff of first-time inductees.

Hunter accumulated 2,452 career hits and nine Gold Gloves, but had just one Top 10 MVP finish in a 19-year career.

That leaves the returning players and even there, there are no guarantees.

Curt Schilling, in his ninth year on the ballot, finished at 70 percent last year (candidates need 75 percent for election), and is the best-positioned among those holdovers. But Schilling is a controversial figure who tends to alienate people with his comments on social media. And his credentials, while strong, are hardly irrefutable. In particular, his win total of 216 and career ERA of 3.46 pale in comparison to some who've gained entrance.

Then there are the twin pillars of the PED era: Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, who, like, Schilling, are in their ninth year of eligibility. Bonds and Clemens have made modest climbs in the voting in recent years, but last year, came in at 60.7 percent (Bonds) and 61 percent (Clemens). They would need to realize significant jumps this time to gain election.

After that, only one other player -- shortstop Omar Vizquel -- was named on at least half (52.6 percent) of the ballots last year.

In the past, I've voted for Schilling, Bonds, Clemens and Andruw Jones and would expect to do so again this time. For now, however, I'll hold off on filling out my ballot until later this year.

Failing to elect a player this winter would not be unprecedented. It's happened three times in modern memory -- 1971, 1996 and 2013.

One additional note to consider: because the pandemic wiped out last summer's induction ceremonies in Cooperstown, that class -- including Derek Jeter, Larry Walker, Ted Simmons and the late Marvin Miller -- will not be honored this July.

That's notable in the event that some voters who might be reluctant to return a blank ballot could take comfort in the fact that there will, in fact, be a ceremony this summer even without new inductees.

Still, an empty 2021 class would stand in stark contrast to recent years. The BBWAA has elected at least two candidates in seven straight years, totaling 22 players. That's the most number of players elected in a seven-year stretch since voting began.