McAdam: Jarren Duran appears to be the answer in CF, but projecting timetable harder than ever

It would seem that Jackie Bradley Jr. has played his last game for the Red Sox.

There's nothing official, of course. But Bradley hit the free-agent market late last month and never received an extension offer from the club. Plus, when a player gets as far as free agency, it's rare for him to re-sign with his former club.

The only other option in the free-agent class is George Springer, and while he's been a far better offensive performer than Bradley, he's also a year older than Bradley and will be seeking a lengthy and costly contract. And, because the Astros presented him with a qualifying offer, signing him would cost the Sox their second-round draft pick next July along with $500,000 in international bonus money.

The good news for the Red Sox is they have someone in their minor league system who projects as Bradley's long-term replacement. Jarren Duran has plus-plus speed and is an accomplished defender -- despite, like Mookie Betts before him, not making the transition from second base to the outfield until after he was drafted by the Sox.

The bad news is, the cancellation of the 2020 minor league season makes it that much more challenging to determine whether Duran is ready to make the leap to the big leagues.

"It's a tough one, in a good way,'' said chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, "because he had a tremendous 2020. And he made strides hitting-wise and physically...he didn't lose any of his speed. He just had a really good year. (But) for all players who didn't play at the major league level -- and even some of those who did, because we had a shorter season -- it's tougher to feel confident about what you know about them.''

Indeed, when Duran last took part in games, he struggled initially after being promoted to Double-A. Eventually, he settled in and had a strong finish to the 2019 Portland SeaDogs season. But there were still existing doubts about Duran's offensive game, with a .325 slugging percentage over 82 games.

The Sox needed Duran to add some weight and begin driving the ball more -- without sacrificing the athleticism that is such a big part of his game. To his credit, Duran did that, and made some adjustments to his swing path, enabling him to get the ball in the air more.

"What we saw in spring training 1.0 was really encouraging and showed great progress,'' commented Red Sox farm director Ben Crockett in August. "For us, it was important to continue to see that and to continue to help him take those strides forward. I think he's definitely done that.''

But those improvements were seen in the most controlled of environments: the Red Sox' alternate training site at Pawtucket's McCoy Stadium.  And while it was encouraging to see him drive the ball against some of the better pitching prospects in the Red Sox organization, that's not the same as regular game conditions.

"You see him put the year together that he had,'' Bloom said, "and now we have to try to figure out what that all means. I think there's a lot of different ways to read it. Given what the summer was -- both in terms of the time we had with the guys, which was not very much and the quality of what we were able to do with them, which in certain ways was great, but was also very different from a normal season -- I tend to think we should be cautious about putting too much weight on it.''

Does that sound like the Red Sox are completely convinced that Duran is major league-ready? Hardly. It's clear that they would like to see the former Long Beach State standout apply what he's learned in a more conventional, competitive environment.

And even if the Red Sox believed beyond a reasonable doubt that Duran had proven himself capable of making the big leap up to Boston, it's a given that they wouldn't want to have him open the season on the major league roster for reasons of service time.

Like every other club, the Red Sox know well the benefits of slowing down Duran's graduation to the big leagues. By delaying that for more than 15 days at the start of the 2021 season, they can control Duran for a whole additional season. And by delaying it further -- say, a few additional months -- they can deprive Duran of an extra year of salary arbitration rights.

Mostly, though, this is a baseball decision and the fact that Duran has yet to have so much as an at-bat at Triple-A likely means he's in need of additional development time. Yes, there is recent precedent in the organization for that sort of double jump, skipping Triple-A altogether: Andrew Benintendi went directly from the Eastern League to the big leagues in 2016. And Rafael Devers had all of nine games in Pawtucket at the time he was promoted to the Sox a year later.

Still, it would seem prudent for the Sox to have some other options to open the year in center before turning the job over to Duran.

Given the paucity of options beyond Springer in the free-agent class, the Sox could find alternatives either through the trade market, or, more likely, from among the large number of players expected to be non-tendered early next month.

In all likelihood, the Red Sox won't be seeking a long-term solution in center, but rather, just someone who can keep the position warm until such time that they feel Duran is truly ready.