The last time the Patriots laid eyes on the Ravens, it was at the end of Baltimore's rather convincing 37-20 home victory on Nov. 3, 2019.
That game was strange. It's certainly true the Patriots had the ball and a chance to take the lead in the third quarter when Julian Edelman fumbled and it was returned for a touchdown, basically ending things. But it's also true the Patriots fell behind 17-0 in the game and the Ravens went on autopilot, giving the Patriots an opening to make it a lot more interesting.
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That was one of 12 consecutive wins the Ravens had to conclude a regular season at 14-2 before losing to the Titans in the divisional round — Baltimore's second-straight one-and-done postseason appearance.
Even with that disappointing end, that Ravens team was a juggernaut. Of their final nine regular-season games, just two were decided by seven points or less. They were by far the best DVOA team at FootballOutsiders.com — first in offense, fifth on defense.
If the Patriots saw that Ravens team again this Sunday night, I would give them a 0.0 percent chance to win that game.
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But these Ravens, right now in Week 10, are far from that squad. While a Patriots win is certainly still a longshot (Ravens are 7-point favorites), it wouldn't be completely shocking if they do find a way to win at Gillette Stadium.
After viewing the coaches film and crunching some numbers, here is what the Patriots can exploit, and what this matchup will come down to that still makes the chances of an upset minimal:
• After starting the season with big wins in four of the first five weeks (similar to the close of 2019), the Ravens have struggled since with a two-point win over the Eagles, a 28-24 loss to the Steelers, and a 24-10 win over the Colts that was much closer than the final score indicated (Ravens punted on their first five possessions and fumbled on the next; Ravens scored 14 points off turnovers).
• Ravens are 5th in DVOA — 23rd on offense (23rd pass/5th rushing) and 5th on defense (7th pass/1st rushing).
• If you can get to the red zone, Baltimore's defense is 30th in the NFL — allowing TDs on 77.8 percent of drives.
• Their vaunted rushing attack has taken a huge hit with the season-ending injury to LT Ronnie Stanley — arguably the best in the league right now — and retirement of RG Marshal Yanda. Orlando Brown is a good player, but having to move him from RT to LT makes the Ravens weaker at two spots because RT D.J. Fluker is barely average. RG Patrick Mekari is awful, as is C Matt Skura. LG Bradley Bozeman is average. This is a good matchup for a weak Patriots front seven.
• This Ravens line is now very slow and has screwed up the timing of the Ravens' running game. Baltimore's ball handlers are all fast and quick. It has a line that is better with power. It doesn't match up, and you can see the two identities fighting themselves on every play. The Ravens' running game is nowhere near as formidable as it used to be if you can limit Lamar Jackson's "special" plays where his talent just wins.
• Teams are taking TE Mark Andrews out of the game, almost completely. He's had one game since the opener with more than three catches, and that was against the Bengals. Opponents have realized how much Jackson relies on Andrews in the middle of the field on quickly designed plays and are eliminating him so Jackson has to throw outside and read defenses.
• Almost every team has taken this approach with the Ravens, and it started with the Chiefs game: challenge the Ravens' offense with press-man coverage and lots of pressure. Teams are making the Ravens' receivers beat them one-on-one and forcing Jackson to make precise ball placement throws into tight coverage.
• Many teams are sending all-out blitzes on third and long with the focus being on eliminating escape lanes for Jackson and speeding up his decision-making.
• It has had a cumulative effect on Jackson, whose confidence is now shot. He is not seeing things clearly on the field and leaving the pocket early. In the second half against the Colts, they had to go a very remedial passing game with very basic routes and mostly defined reads and throws.
• All of this is up the Patriots' alley if they can hold the fort MUCH better on first down. Ravens are one of the worst second-down offenses in the league.
• Defensively, this is all going to come down to whoever is at linebacker (Ja'Whaun Bentley and Adrian Phillips?). They can not fall for all the bells and whistles and motion in the run game. This is the ultimate Do Your Job game. The linebackers can't worry about outside runs. They have to worry about Jackson and their gap, and trust that the edges will hold up, and the corners will tackle. For this group, that's a lot to get right, but it's not totally impossible.
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If the Ravens lost to the Colts on Sunday, I would give the Patriots next to no shot. But that win, combined with the Ravens struggling on both sides of the ball, should keep this game relatively close. Not sure I'm bold enough to call an upset, but give me the points.
RAVENS 24, PATRIOTS 20.