Bedard: Overreaction and the reality of the NFL from Sunday - Playoffs, AFC East QBs, Brady & more

I don't know what it is about this year and the NFL — perhaps it could be Covid-related in that we didn't have much to talk about and were been cooped up for so long — but the overreaction is off the charts after every Sunday.

People — and actual folks who get paid to comment on the NFL — swing wildly back and forth that I'm surprised their heads don't snap off their necks.

Josh Allen is an MVP for four weeks, then he's not talked about, and now after one game against a terrible defense he's an MVP again. Tom Brady and the Bucs are Super Bowl champs for two weeks, now suddenly they're terrible and he's old. Drew Brees was old and washed up one week, now he and the Saints are Super Bowl contenders. Tua Taglovailoa is the greatest thing ever after beating the Cardinals.

If you want rational reality on those topics and more, then read on ...

REACTION: Sunday was not a good day for the Patriots' playoff hopes.

REALITY: True, to an extent.

The Bills being the last defense standing in Buffalo against the Seahawks was a huge blow to the Patriots' hopes for the division. Not only must the Bills now finish 2-5 to give the Patriots at legit shot at the division (most winnable games: at Arizona, vs. Chargers, at Broncos, vs. Dolphins), but the Bills got another game on the Patriots if it comes down to common opponents as Buffalo beat a team in Seattle that the Patriots lost to. Patriots will have to make that game up and hope the Bills lose to the Broncos.

Also, two of the teams the Patriots figure to be in contention with for a wild-card (Raiders, Dolphins) won their games, and the Browns were idle. At least the Colts lost to the Ravens.

Even with all that said, this is really all about the Patriots. If they don't get going on the field with their own performances, scoreboard watching isn't really going to matter. To have a chance at the playoffs, the Patriots will have to get to 9-7 which means they must finish 7-2. That's realistic, but I'm not sure that's going to be enough. The Patriots may have to get to 10-6, which would mean an 8-1 finish.

Is it possible? Sure. Outside of the Ravens, there are no great teams left on the schedule. But it's also true that every game will be a tractor pull for the Patriots and will require an intense amount of effort without the benefit of a bye week. That's tough. But, again, nothing is going to matter unless the Patriots start playing better, which means the QB but also the defense on first and second down.

REACTION: The Patriots are falling behind the AFC East arms race.

The REALITY: Right now this true, but it can change quickly and isn't as dire as some will make it out to be.

With Tua looking like a real-deal franchise quarterback in his second start against the Cardinals, we're looking at the very real possibility that heading into next season, the AFC East QBs will line up this way:

Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa
Bills: Josh Allen
Jets: Trevor Lawrence
Patriots: Cam Newton/Who the hell knows?

This is not a great spot for the Patriots to be in, but I wouldn't overreact quite yet.

Tua looked like the real deal at times on Sunday, but the biggest questions will always remain about his longevity at the position. He's really small and slight, will he put out there every week? How much is he dependent on his surrounding cast? You also have to remember that for the next 2-3 weeks, teams still won't have much film on him, so the defenses will not be what he sees next season, after teams have a whole offseason to study.

Allen is still a wild card. He's inconsistent from play to play, and I would throw yesterday out the window considering the Seahawks' defense — even Cam Newton looked like a HOFer against them.

https://twitter.com/Gil_Brandt/status/1325847898077028353

If I was betting, I would wager on the Bills being another one-and-done team in the postseason (depending on the matchup) because of Allen and his inconsistency. Like the Patriots' game, Allen wanted to have another chokey moment but, much like the terrible Patriots' defense, the Seahawks couldn't get Allen even in that situation because they are so bad. I'm still not sold on Allen being a winner. You can win with him, but will he win when you need him the most? Show me.

Trevor Lawrence is going to be really good.

As for the Patriots, who the hell knows? If Newton finishes strong, he'll be back and could be the best QB in the division — depends on how he finishes and if Josh McDaniels is still here. The Patriots could wind up with Sam Darnold or Jimmy Garoppolo. Or somebody else. We just don't know.

REACTION: Tom Brady and the Bucs are pretenders, and Antonio Brown is already costing them.

REALITY: This whole narrative drives me crazy — thanks Felger. Like I ranted about last week on the show, you can't go overboard on Tom vs. Bill just because the Bucs beat and looked great vs. two bad defenses (Green Bay, Vegas). I've been proven right.

Against the Bears, Brady and the Bucs were terrible and then two weeks later their Super Bowl champs? Give me a break. They barely beat the Giants — should have lost to them — and then were curb-stomped AT HOME by the Saints 38-3. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bucs lost their next three or four games: Panthers are spunky, Rams aren't good but can play some defense, Chiefs are the Chiefs, and the Vikings are coming on.

Brady is not doing anything spectacular in Tampa right now, and they're not bad. They're middling just like everybody else.

This smelled like a bad gameplan by Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich, and Brady just decided to throw deep all the time like he is prone to do. Brown feels like a bad fit right now — too many cooks that Brady needs to keep happy — but I'm sure it will look better with more time.

The big thing is, now the division is a longshot for the Bucs, and we all know how Brady has done in the past without that bye week — and the Bucs will likely have to be on the road in the first round (at Green Bay in January? at Eagles with nothing to lose in bad weather?). Tampa also has some poor tiebreakers right now (3-3 in conference) so playoff positioning will be a problem.

This not over yet between Tom and Bill. Funny how things can change in a week ... if you don't listen to rational people.

REACTION: Mike Tomlin is coach of the year.

REALITY: Not that far off, but one thing about that ...

Sunday was a total Tomlin-led special. Steelers are way better than the injury-ravaged Cowboys and barely beat them. I'm sorry, that's not the sign of a good coach. Steelers always play down to their opponent and they rarely have won games they have no business winning.

That being said, I've been impressed with Tomlin this season. He's been a much more steady hand leading that troop — in the past he's been too emotional for me. It seems like he's matured as a coach and is coming into his own in that regard. And all of the Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell stuff has only enhanced the perception of what he's done.