NFL Notebook: Do the Patriots still have a legit shot at the postseason?

We all know the Patriots' last three losses, especially the 24-21 defeat at Buffalo, led to unprecedented times in New England with Bill Belichick as coach.

The Patriots now are just 2-5 and still 3.5 games behind the Bills in the AFC East.

It would seem that the postseason is a bit of a pipe dream. FootballOutsiders.com has the Patriots with an 8.8 percent chance of making the playoffs. 538.com has them at 12 percent.

Of course, those are pure numbers derived from what has happened. As we all know, football is played by humans and what is past is not always prologue when it comes to the NFL. Teams can get hot. Teams can improve. Others can choke. Anything can happen.

Does that include the Patriots winning the AFC East — the most likely path to the postseason (if the field isn't expanded to eight teams in each conference due to Covid)?

Perhaps. It's not quite as big a longshot as you might think for this very reason: the Patriots have the 24th-hardest schedule the rest of the way; the Bills have the sixth most difficult slate.

We went through the rest of the schedule for the rest of the NFL with our best guesses, and the AFC East could be decided by the narrowest of margins between the Patriots, Bills and the Dolphins. Of course, the head-to-head games will loom large — the Patriots have to beat the Bills in the Week 16 rematch and win the rest of the division games — but this could very well come down to another huge yet underrated factor:

Records against common opponents.

In fact, that's how our simulation was decided. We had the Patriots and Bills finishing at 9-7, and the Dolphins at 8-8. The lone playoff bid in the division went to the Bills ... due to winning percentage against common opponents.

Let's take you through it.

Here are our game-by-game predictions and finish in the AFC East.



That leads to the following finishes in each conference. Despite having the same conference (8-4) and division record (5-1), the Bills would win the AFC East and qualify while the Patriots would sit in eighth behind the Ravens, Colts and Browns for the final three playoff spots.



Here's the NFC for amusement.



This would all leave the AFC East very close:



Basically, the common opponents could loom very large — especially the Patriots' loss to the Broncos. The Bills will host them in Week 15.

Let's take the division games out of the equation right now. Bills have yet to lose to a team the Patriots have defeated. They both beat the Raiders and lost to the Chiefs.

The Bills still have to play the Seahawks, Broncos and 49ers, who all dealt the Patriots losses at this point. The Bills defeated the Rams, which means the Patriots must hold serve there.

Then it could come down to how each team does against the very game Cardinals — the Patriots host them in Week 12, while the Bills go to Arizona in Week 10.



Look, with the way the Patriots have played to this point, none of their games outside of the Jets are a given at this point. But if they can keep making progress on Monday night against the Jets, and have a good showing against the Ravens, hope is not lost. They have a legit shot at winning their final seven games, as they will likely be favorites over everyone (provided they start to stack success) except the Rams.

That would put them at 10-6 and possibly give them the division.

Outside of that, the Patriots will have to do a lot of scoreboard watching, and their fans should be doing the same.

Outside of the division, the Patriots have already played five of their eight common opponents and are just 1-4 against them. The Bills have only played three and are 3-1. The Patriots will need them to finish at least 5-3.

The Patriots might need the Bills to lose a division game to really have a chance since the division record is the first tiebreaker — it wouldn't even get to common opponents.

Here are the rest of the tiebreakers.



Patriots might have to hope to run the tables at 10-6 after the Ravens game because right now that Broncos loss looms largest, and that record might get them a wild-card.

If the Patriots finish 7-0 and the Bills upset the Steelers to get to 10-6, Buffalo takes the division based on strength of victory, and the Patriots edge out the Browns for the final spot.

There's a long way to go, and none of it is possible unless the Patriots start playing some better — and winning — football on Monday night.

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. I guess the item NFL owners are set to vote on this week — rewarding two third-round compensatory draft picks in successive years if they lose a minority coach or GM to another team, according to Peter King — makes some sense in that incentivizes a team to develop more minority candidates for top positions, it doesn't help the root problem: minorities not being hired for those top positions.

2. Well, Joe Judge finally stepping in it with the Giants in regards to this Golden Tate mess. After shouting during the game for the team to throw him the damn ball, Tate's wife continued the campaign on social media. All of that got Tate demoted to scout team, and then left behind this weekend. “Every coach and every player has to be team-first,’’ Judge said during the week. “There’s no exceptions for that. I’m not going to tolerate and put up with any kind of selfish behavior from anybody, coach or player. It’s not going to happen.’’ There had to be another way to handle this than alienating a veteran player who's respected around the league. Judge should have handled this behind closed doors and found another way to bring Tate into the fold. This reeks of another former Patriots assistant trying to be Little Bill Belichick than just being their own person. If this happened to Belichick, I'm sure he would have found another way than publicly calling a player out.

3. Weird week around the NFL for former players, some with Patriots ties. Dez Bryant was elevated from the Ravens' practice squad to the active roster. Bryant, 31, hasn't played an NFL game since Dec. 31, 2017. Former Patriots punter Ryan Allen signed with the Titans with Brett Kern dealing with a wrist injury. Allen will reunite with Stephen Gostkowski. And the Lions signed Mohamed Sanu to their practice squad. Yes, the Patriots gave up a second-round pick for him.

4. At least the Patriots got one break this season: Sam Darnold won't start on Monday night as he's battling a right shoulder injury. Joe Flacco will start. With the Jets staring at a winless season and the top pick in the draft, it's a shame we won't get to see Darnold audition for Belichick.

5. Week 9 NFL Picks vs. spreads

Somebody's heating up a little bit. And it's not Bill Belichick.

Last week: 7-5-1. Best bet: 0-1
Total: 40-51-3 (.441). Best bet: 2-4-1.

Seattle -3
Denver +4
Chicago +6.5
Detroit +4
Baltimore -1.5
Kansas City -10
Jacksonville +7
Washington -2.5
Vegas -1
Pittsburgh -14.5
Arizona -5.5
Tampa Bay -4.5
Patriots +9.5 (BB, 27-13)