As we get closer to the NFL trade deadline on Nov. 3rd (NOT Oct. 29th), it's increasingly apparent the Patriots have to do something about the tight end position.
(Of course, this solidifies that Bill Belichick will ignore the position at the deadline, and Devin Asiasi will mount a late bid at Offensive Rookie Of The Year when he becomes unstoppable in the final six weeks of the season, but we'll push on...)
You could certainly make the argument about adding at defensive tackle, linebacker and receiver. But at least the Patriots have functional bodies at those positions at the moment.
They have nothing at tight end. We're not talking about having zero depth, which is usually important since we've been told for years by the Patriots that, "The NFL is a business about quality depth management." The Patriots have zero starters at the position at this moment.
This is the total sum of the Patriots' tight end personnel:
Ryan Izzo: 7 targets, 3 receptions, 44 yards in 4 games.
Devin Asiasi: 57 plays, 20 pass routes, 0 targets.
Dalton Keene: 4 games, 4 inactives, 2 healthy scratches, 2 questionables on injury report.
The Patriots are last in the league in targets to tight ends with seven, according to PFF), and the next-closest team has 13 (Panthers). The league average is 33. The Patriots have 21 percent of the average.
So, yes, unless Asiasi and Keene shortly become better than Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez were in their rookie seasons, the Patriots need to find some immediate help at the position.
My question now is why did the Patriots even let it get to this point, especially when Newton has traditionally relied on his tight ends?
It's not like something surprising happened. Even before Gronkowski retired in 2019, he had shown signs of decline physically and in terms of team buy-in, to the point the Patriots tried to trade him to the Lions before the '18 season.
Yet despite being done with Gronkowski and the drama that surrounded him, the Patriots only drafted Izzo in the seventh round in '18, and then didn't draft a tight end in '19 before this year's double-dip.
In other words, the Patriots were driving with their TE gas light on for miles, passed by a few gas stations, kept going, and now have run out of gas.
Strange for a team that, a) spent two first-round picks (Daniel Graham, Ben Watson) in the span of three years on tight ends, and b) drafted seven tight ends in Belichick's first seven years as coach of the Patriots.
And this sudden ignoring of the position did just start, either.
Even after Hernandez was arrested for murder in the offseason of '13, the Patriots passed on a tight end in the '14 draft, spent just a sixth-rounder on A.J. Derby in '15 and ignored the position in '16 and '17 drafts.
It doesn't make any sense.
Meanwhile, the production from the position has gone off a cliff. After tight ends accounted for an average of 31.7 percent of the passing yards — nearly one-third — from 2010-17, it has bottomed out at 11.2 percent the past three seasons.
It would be one thing for the Patriots to pivot away from the tight end position because of an influx of talent at the receiving position. We all know that's not the case considering, to this point, N'Keal Harry, Julian Edelman, Damiere Byrd and Gunner Olszewski aren't keep defensive coordinators up at night.
And it's also perplexing, even after Tom Brady, that the position was ignored this offseason because tight end has been important to Cam Newton in his time with the Panthers.
Just a few months after drafting Newton first overall, the Panthers traded a third-round pick to the Bears for Greg Olsen and they immediately made quite the tandem. Olsen went to three straight Pro Bowls from '14-16 and in their eight years together, Olsen averaged 6.5 targets per game when he played (7.0 before injuries starting to become an issue for both players in '17).
That was just Olsen. From 2013-16, Newton targeted all of his tight ends an average of 133 times per season, which was among the highest in the league. The TE-happy Patriots in the same time frame, averaged 128 targets to tight ends.
On a per-game basis, Newton targeted his tight ends an average of 8.3 times per game at his height.
Current Patriots tight ends (OK ... just Izzo) are being targeted 1.75 times per game.
If the Patriots want to maximize Newton's comfort in the offense, and accentuate his strengths as a passer, it would behoove them to make a major move at the position before the deadline.
According to NFL executives, these are the players who may be available:
1. David Njoku, Browns: Cleveland was actively shopping him in the offseason but found no takers, including the Patriots. But that was after the draft with two promising rookies taken. That thinking may have changed once the Patriots saw what they had in Asiasi and Dalton Keene (nothing to this point). The Browns paid big money for Austin Hooper and drafted Harrison Bryant. Njoku is the best (although he’s hurt a lot), but the Browns have plenty in reserve.
2. Evan Engram, Giants: Like Njoku, another 2017 first-round pick who hasn’t fulfilled his promise in the current locale, and will have a fifth-year option available next season. Both are tremendous athletes for the position (Engram ran a 4.42 at the combine that is among the fastest at TE ever) and are definitely worth a look.
3. Jacob Hollister, Seahawks: You laugh (and I laughed too), but one NFL executive said he’s the most available player out there and has the type of athleticism New England lacks, plus he already knows the system. Yes, the Patriots traded him to Seattle for a 7th in 2019, but he’s now buried on the depth chart. Maybe just do the same deal the opposite way and call it a night.
4. Gerald Everett, Rams: Another athletic TE from the 2017 draft but a lot of red flags are raised because he’s never become a force there — usually a giveaway that the player has trouble getting the offense. He’s also a free agent after this season, so the return could be nothing on a trade outside of a comp pick.
5. Zach Ertz, Eagles: Even though he turns 30 in less than a month, Ertz is still among the better TEs in the league. The problem is he wants a new contract, which is his problem with the Eagles — and he wants top dollar (which he won’t get from anyone). He’s basically said he won’t play for his 2021 salary ($8.25 million base). I don’t think that changes by going to the Patriots, but stranger things have happened.
6. Darren Fells, Texans: I doubt they’d be willing to give up talented Jordan Akins even with some turmoil, and Fells is just OK, but at least you know he’s a functioning NFL TE.
7. Tyler Eifert, Jaguars: Hasn’t been great since relocating and coming back from injury, but worth a shot since he’s making nothing.
