Welcome to October, and New England's favorite silly season ...
"Who ah the Pats going to trade fah to put themselves ovah the top?!
It's a good question, especially this season, as we move closer to the 4 p.m. Nov. 3rd trade deadline.
For all the talk about what the Patriots could or should do, they actually aren't all that active in terms of impact players at the deadline. Have they had some? Sure. But just two of the last 10 traded-for players were truly impact players.
A look at the Patriots' in-season deals going back to 2011, the positions they should target, and then we'll get into some of the players I'm hearing might be available and attractive to the Patriots:
2019
WR Mohamed Sanu from Falcons for a 2nd-round pick.
2018
WR Josh Gordon and a conditional 7th-round pick from Browns for a 5th-round pick (Sept. 17th).
2017
None.
2016
LB Kyle Van Noy and 7th-round pick from Detroit for a 6th-round pick (Jamie Collins was traded out).
TE A.J. Derby from Denver for a 5th-round pick.
2015 (none were deadline deals)
WR Keshawn Martin from Texans for a 5th-round pick (Sept. 17).
LB Jon Bostic from Bears for a 6th-round pick (Sept. 28).
DT Akiem Hicks from Saints for TE Michael Hoomanawanui (Sept. 30)
2014
LB Akeem Ayers and a 7th from Titans for a 6th-round pick.
LB Jonathan Casillas and a 6th from Bucs for a 5th-round pick.
2013
DT Isaac Sopoaga and a 6th from Eagles for a 5th-round pick.
2012
CB Aqib Talib and a 7th from Bucs for a 4th-round pick.
2011
None.
Some points on the trades:
- Van Noy, Ayers and Talib were the only traded players who provided meaningful help to the team. And even Talib and Ayers are pushing it. In Talib's two seasons, the Patriots won a playoff game in each (over the Texans and Colts) but lost in the conference championship game. Ayers played 24 total defensive snaps in three postseason games in '14.
- You can't count Gordon since he was suspended before the regular season was even over.
- Sanu and the second-round pick was truly the outlier in all this, and shows how desperate the Patriots were last year at receiver. Most of the time, the Patriots are only willing to part with a 5th-round pick.
- Most of the traded players, save Talib, Sanu and Gordon, were role players. Van Noy was really a role player here at first until injuries hit.
- You can place the trades into the following boxes: Salary dump (Sanu); Attitude dump (Gordon, Talib, Van Noy); The Expendable Role Players (Derby, Martin, Bostic, Ayers, Casillas, Sopoaga, Hicks).
- Yes, I view September deals differently than deadline deals. If you're making a deal in September, you addressing a glaring hole on your team left from either a poor job in the offseason, or injury. It's not a deal to push a team over the top.
WHERE'S THE HELP NEEDED?
1. Tight end: If this is all the Patriots are going to get out of Devin Asiasi (57 snaps ... Rob Gronkowski, who didn't become much a factor in the passing game until later in his rookie season, played 155 by now), they have to do something immediately. Ryan Izzo is a decent No. 2 or 3 TE, but that's it. Dalton Keene hasn't even been active yet. "Their tight ends stink," said one NFC personnel executive.
If you want N'Keal Harry to have a little bit more room to operate, they have to get something out of the middle of the field. Right now, there's nothing. The Patriots desperately need an athletic option in the middle of the field.
2. Linebacker: I was tempted not to list this position because I like what I see out of Anferenee Jennings, and Josh Uche should give them something at some point. But I think they need to hedge their bets, preferably with someone who can run a bit and give them a coverage upgrade.
3. Receiver: With Damiere Byrd coming on as a speed option, I'm not on WR as I once was, but I wouldn't hate it either.
4. Defensive tackle: Depends on what they think they will get out of the Regional Man of Mystery, Beau Allen. They've gotten by without him to this point, but that's not going to happen for an entire season.
TRADE AMMUNITION
Draft picks the Patriots are projected to have in 2021:
1st
2nd
(NE's 3rd-round pick vacated due to Browns taping punishment)
3rd (projected comp pick - can't be traded)
4th
4th (projected comp pick - can't be traded)
4th (projected comp pick - can't be traded)
5th
6th (from Cowboys for Michael Bennett)
6th
(additional 6th to Jets in Dalton Keene trade)
7th
Players who could be used on the trade block, provided they are healthy:
LG Joe Thuney
RB J.J. Taylor
OT Korey Cunningham
G/C Hjalte Froholdt
OLB Derek Rivers
Longshots
CB Stephon Gilmore (very doubtful, will have $8.9 million dead cap in '20, '21)
WR Julian Edelman
RB Sony Michel or Damien Harris
POSSIBLE TARGETS?
Tight end
1. David Njoku, Browns: Cleveland was actively shopping him in the offseason but found no takers, including the Patriots. But that was after the draft and with two promising rookies. That thinking may have changed once the Patriots saw what they had in Asiasi and Dalton Keene (nothing to this point). The Browns paid big money for Austin Hooper and drafted Harrison Bryant. Njoku is the best (although he's hurt a lot), but the Browns have plenty in reserve.
2. Evan Engram, Giants: Like Njoku, another 2017 first-round pick who hasn't fulfilled his promise in the current locale, and will have a fifth-year option available next season. Both are tremendous athletes for the position (Engram ran a 4.42 at the combine that is among the fastest at TE ever) and are definitely worth a look.
3. Jacob Hollister, Seahawks: You laugh (and I laughed too), but one NFL executive said he's the most available player out there and has the type of athleticism New England lacks, plus he already knows the system. Yes, the Patriots traded him to Seattle for a 7th in 2019, but he's now buried on the depth chart. Maybe just do the same deal the opposite way and call it a night.
4. Gerald Everett, Rams: Another athletic TE from the 2017 draft but a lot of red flags are raised because he's never become a force there — usually a giveaway that the player has trouble getting the offense. He's also a free agent after this season, so the return could be nothing on a trade.
5. Zach Ertz, Eagles: Even though he turns 30 in less than a month, Ertz is still among the better TEs in the league. The problem is he wants a new contract, which is his problem with the Eagles — and he wants top dollar (which he won't get from anyone). He's basically said he won't play for his 2021 salary ($8.25 million base). I don't think that changes by going to the Patriots, but stranger things have happened.
6. Darren Fells, Texans: I doubt they'd be willing to give up talented Jordan Akins even with some turmoil, and Fells is just OK, but at least you know he's a functioning NFL TE.
7. Tyler Eifert, Jaguars: Hasn't been great since relocating and coming back from injury, but worth a shot since he's making nothing.
Linebacker
1. Deion Jones, Falcons: Atlanta is going nowhere and they'd start to clean up their cap by dealing the talented MLB. Jones is set to make about $30 million the next three seasons. He's worth it, but that might help drive down the cost. Might be willing to trade the 2nd-round pick for him. He's terrific.
2. Zach Cunningham, Texans: Houston might want to rid itself of one of Bill O'Brien's worst contracts that really starts to hurt in 2022, but it does have a trigger that doesn't need to be picked up. O'Brien obviously thought Cunningham was worth it, and he's very athletic and would probably be better in this scheme.
3. Jarrad Davis, Lions: Has never really caught on in Detroit despite being a first-round pick in 2017. In the final year of his deal, so not much of a definite future.
Wide receiver
1. Golden Tate, Giants: As opposed to everyone else on this list, he's under contract for 2022 as well (at just $6 million) so I'd be willing to do a 4th or 5th for this gamer to bring some toughness to a Patriots receiving core that could use it.
2. Curtis Samuel, Panthers: Cam Newton's former teammate has speed to burn and would upgrade the Patriots in that area. But, as is the case with many of these guys, he's in a contract year and could walk. Do the Patriots think they need something like that this season after the Sanu debacle? I doubt it.
3. Marvin Jones, Lions: Is in a contract year, which is an issue because a team would have to offer what Detroit thinks it will get back in a comp pick. Would have to be a fourth-rounder, and he could walk. Don't really see it.
4. Kenny Stills, Texans: Same boat — final year of his contract and should yield a decent comp pick.
5. John Ross, Bengals: Speedster has never been properly utilized and he's also in the final year of his deal. But probably won't break the bank as far as a comp pick. Would the Patriots do a 5th-round pick for him? Doubt it.
6. Dede Westbrook, Jaguars: Starting to come on in his contract year and might not yield much of a comp.
Defensive tackle
I couldn't find one impact player at the position that would make sense for the Patriots — most of the players who would be available make a ton of money. Considering they didn't show much interest in Snacks Harrison before he signed to Seattle's practice squad, I don't think the Patriots think this is much of a need.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Maybe the Patriots should call the Bucs and see if they want DT Beau Allen back. With starting DT Vita Vea on IR, the Bucs reportedly tried to sign Snacks Harrison from the Seahawks' practice squad but Harrison said no thanks (maybe he didn't like what he saw from that outfit on Thursday night). Allen was Vea's backup last year in Tampa. Since no one is really sure whether Allen is actually going to play for the Patriots, maybe he might be feeling well enough to come off IR if informed the Bucs want him back.
2. A round of applause for Jason McCourty saying what needed to be said — and he likely knew he had the backing of his coach — about the NFL and NFLPA in how they've handled the Covid situation during the season. "I think outside of here, the people that don't have to walk in our building -- whether it is the league office, whether it is the NFLPA -- they don't care," McCourty said. "For them, it is not about our best interest, or our health and safety, it is about, 'What can we make protocol-wise that sounds good, looks good, and how can we go out there and play games?' I think what I kind of learned personally throughout this situation is it is going to be up to us as individuals in this building to just really take care of one another." It's easy for us outside of the arena to feel the way we feel, but these are the men dealing with it on an everyday basis.
3. I never really thought this would happen, but from the I-guess-you-can't-make-this-stuff-up department:
BSJ, June 18, 2019: "We’re only a few steps away from (Jack) Easterby sidling up to (Cal) McNair and being in a position to take over Texans’ entire football operations whenever O’Brien is fired."
Houston Chronicle, Saturday: "Easterby has risen fast in the organization and has grown close to McNair."
4. FWIW, the Texans played the toughest schedule the first four weeks according to FootballOutsiders.com. The Chargers, Vikings, Giants and Falcons are next. The teams who have played the easiest schedules and may fall back to Earth? 49ers (2nd-toughest from now on), Steelers (8th), Rams (14th), Titans (3rd), Bills (19th). Patriots have had the 10th-hardest scheduled to date, and face the 24th-toughest the rest of the way.
5. Week 5 NFL Picks vs. BetUS spreads
Last week: 5-8-1. Best bet: 0-0-1.
Total: 20-23-1 (.466). Best bet: 1-1-1.
Falcons -2.5
Chiefs -11.5
Washington +7.5
Texans -5.5
Jets +7.5
Eagles +7.5
Bengals +11.5
Dolphins +8
Colts PK
Seahawks -7
Saints -8
Patriots OFF
Titans OFF