FOXBOROUGH — There are very few sure things in the NFL, but Sunday was one of those for the Patriots. The Raiders were a perfect Patriots opponent.
A young team from out west coming off a short week and an emotional win that they were told signaled that they "had arrived."
A coach and playcaller in Jon Gruden steeped in the West Coast Offense — meaning that even if his star running back, Josh Jacobs, is averaging 6.0 yards per carry in the first half and looks unstoppable behind a line that was shoving the Patriots all over the place, Gruden will still drop back to pass with impunity because WCO truthers believe some of those passes are the same as runs.
And then mix in a quarterback like Derek Carr whose game never looks better than on the stat sheet because he's never passed up a checkdown for a tight down-field throw, can get fooled by coverages, and has poor pocket awareness and ball control (two fumbles).
Officially (meaning, in my own mind) the Patriots remain undefeated at Gillette Stadium in these circumstances, after their 36-20 victory over the Raiders on Sunday.
So Sunday was pretty predictable (I had 35-17 ... sorry about those two points on the differential). But it did give us another valuable game worth of data to start to formulate some more concrete answers about this team. And with the Patriots set to play the Chiefs (Sunday, 4:25 p.m.), 49ers, Bills and Ravens within the next six games, it's a good time to start breaking these Patriots down.
The preseason is over.
Let's look at what we know, and don't know about this team — with an admission that things can and will change as the season moves along (remember the Monday Night Massacre at KC in 2014?) — as they head into the gauntlet.
• We know ... the Patriots' best path to victory is very clear. In their two wins, the Patriots used a physical Bully Ball brand of offensive football to wear down the opposing defense and soften them up for big plays. New England had nearly 500 rushing yards in those two games. The Patriots sprinkled in a few big plays here and there, but really they just need to keep possession and grind out the yards.
• We don't know ... if Cam Newton and this passing offense can really make plays down the field if they're not playing a bad Seahawks defense that has allowed 430.7 passing yards per game through the first three weeks after Dallas shredded it again on Sunday.
• We know ... the Patriots are challenged in the front seven if the scoreboard is close. The Seahawks pretty much did whatever they wanted running and throwing, and the Raiders were doing much of the same — even if the scoreboard didn't reflect it thanks to the Raiders self-inflicted wounds — up until they missed a field goal to start the third quarter and the Patriots scored to make it a 10-point swing and a 20-10 Patriots lead. That's when the Patriots started getting some meaningful pressure from Chase Winovich, Deatrich Wise and Shilique Calhoun. That trio dominated the second half — because the two-score lead allowed them to be more aggressive.
• We don't know ... if the Patriots' passing offense can mount a comeback against a good man coverage secondary. They should be able to make plays against the Chiefs, but the Ravens with Jimmy Smith, Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters will be a referendum on the passing game.
• While we're at it, we don't know if this defense is capable — even last year's wasn't with the season on the line — of shutting down a dominant rushing attack because the Patriots have yet to face one. They will in the Ravens. It would help if Beau Allen graced us with his presence now that his three-week stint on IR has concluded. Will he be back, or still on a milk carton with his ponytail?
• We also don't know ... if the Patriots will have any linebackers outside of Ja'Whaun Bentley around to help stop rushing attacks. Normally, it's helpful to have linebackers to counter two or three tight ends on the field, but the Patriots are trying to stop running games with five and six defensive backs.
• We know... that Josh McDaniels is doing a heck of a job coordinating this offense that is still challenged with no tight end and no dominant playmakers. The Raiders stuffed the inside run early and Newton wasn't seeing the game. So McDaniels decided to wear out the short-week Raiders with outside speed from JJ Taylor and Rex Burkhead, and screens. And then landed devastating body blows with Sony Michel later.
• We also know ... Michel is the same back he's always been: he has great production when the blocking is great against poor to average defenses. He can't do much if the blocking isn't there and doesn't make many tacklers miss. He is not a first-round talent. There is no debate. That's who he has always been.
• We don't know ... if Damien Harris can be another playmaker on the field for this team.
• We still don't know ... how this offense will function against a physical front that is determined not to allow Newton and his legs to beat them. The Patriots will see that type of defense from the 49ers after the bye week.
• We know ... the Patriots' offensive line is one of the best in the league, no matter who is out there. What a difference a year makes. Last year the Patriots lost one person (David Andrews), and the unit basically fell apart outside of Joe Thuney. The Patriots lost Marcus Cannon before the season, Andrews went on IR, they slid Thuney to center and had two rookies (Michael Onwenu, Justin Herron) step up to the be the sixth and seventh linemen on this team. And the line was still dominant on Sunday! Dante Who?
• We don't know ... how this line will run and pass block against a really good defense. The 49ers, Ravens and Bills are all near the top in defensive statistics.
• We know ... Newton, Julian Edelman, Jakob Johnson and the line are tough as hell offensively. They are Bully Ball incarnate.
• We don't know ... if the Patriots will ever get anything out of the tight end position. Another game, another outing for Devin Asiasi where he looks like a passenger while the team's train has left the station.
• We know ... the Patriots are tough to throw against when QBs aren't making their own highlight reels (Russell Wilson always, Carr to Hunter Renfrow). And we also know the Patriots' secondary will get better and be capable of more once Adrian Phillips, Kyle Dugger and Terrence Brooks get more playing time together.
• We don't know ... if Stephon Gilmore is going to ever feel like playing like the NFL Defensive Player of the Year again, or if he's just going to be average and grab people as they're just running by.
• We know ... the Patriots should be 2-1, that's what everyone expected.
• We don't know ... if the Patriots will emerge from November with a winning record. The Broncos and Jets will be layups. The Chiefs, 49ers, Bills, Ravens, Texans and Cardinals will all be tractor pulls.
• We know ... we're about to get the real answers about this team in the next nine weeks.