The Celtics are going to need a lot of things to go their way to come back from a 2-0 deficit in the Eastern Conference Finals, starting with a win in Game 3 on Saturday night. Just 6.4 percent of teams (27 of 423) in NBA postseason history have overcome a 0-2 hole and gone on to win a seven-game series. The odds improve slightly in the Conference Finals for teams playing catchup with 10.3 percent of teams pulling off the 2-0 comeback, including the last two Eastern Conference champions (Toronto vs. Milwaukee, Cleveland vs. Boston). Brad Stevens is one of the coaches to pull off a 0-2 recovery but that came against the eight-seeded Bulls in 2017 and was aided by the loss of Chicago's starting point guard in Rajon Rondo.
The road will be tougher this time around against a healthy Heat squad that has been the best postseason team in the NBA this year (10-1). Yet, one crucial element is awaiting the Celtics in Game 3 and that’s the potential return of Gordon Hayward from a Grade 3 ankle sprain that has sidelined him for nearly five weeks. The veteran was upgraded to questionable for Game 3 on Friday evening and with three days off before Game 4, recovery for future games becomes less of a concern. If Hayward can give the Celtics anything, Saturday night is the time to find out.
Returning in the middle of a Conference Finals series while facing a 0-2 series deficit is a brutal spot for Hayward to return from a pressure standpoint. The Celtics have no margin for error in this series now and that’s going to put added pressure on both him and Brad Stevens (how much leash will he give him?) whenever he’s in the game. The Heat have a dynamic offense with plenty of speed so Hayward will be tested immediately by almost anyone he guards in the backcourt. If ankle mobility is still a question mark, look for the Celtics to protect him by putting him on a bigger wing (Jae Crowder, Andre Iguodala) rather than an off-the-dribble threat like Tyler Herro or Kendrick Nunn off the bench.
While Hayward’s size and defensive versatility will help the Celtics defensively, his biggest value will come against the defense that haunted the Celtics in Game 2: Miami’s matchup zone. The Celtics looked disorganized and frazzled by it for large stretches of Game 2, failing to probe it with crisp passing thanks to poor decision making and positioning.
Even if Hayward is not close to 100 percent yet, his presence against the zone should be a steadying effect and an upgrade offensively from a limited scoring threat like Semi Ojeleye or Grant Williams (he will play, but just as a center now), even if it’s only for 15-20 minutes.
In order to see Hayward’s influence against a zone, one only needs to look back towards the last couple of head-to-head matchups Hayward played in against the Heat this season. His mix of size, passing ability, comfort shooting from the midrange and patience makes him a threat in a variety of roles on the floor against the 2-3 setup.
Coming off of a long break, his main purpose might simply be as an additional facilitator. Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart played plenty at the top of the zone but all were very slopping with their passing at times (combined 14 turnovers in Game 2). Hayward does a nice job of engaging the long wing defenders at the top of the zone with a ball fake, drawing them in enough to open up the wing 3 here.
Jimmy Butler's two clutch steals in Game 2. Absolutely huge plays. pic.twitter.com/GP1mZe5yf2
— Couper Moorhead (@CoupNBA) September 18, 2020
