Seven pressing questions for Celtics-Raptors Game 7

With the Celtics and Raptors set to settle an epic seven-game series on Friday night (9 p.m. ET on TNT), let's examine some of the bigger questions in play as the two Eastern Conference heavyweights attempt to advance to the NBA's final four. 

1. Will the Raptors stay with the small lineup more and if so, should the Celtics counter? It’s hard to call this an adjustment by Nick Nurse more than him just waiting for an opportunity. Norm Powell, a top wing scorer off the bench all season long for the Raptors, was a non-factor during the first four games of this series. He wasn’t hitting shots and his defense doesn’t add much to the equation, so that left him with spot minutes (18 per game) through the first half of the series, far short of his usual minutes load. However, as the Celtics blew out the Raptors in Game 5, the window appeared for Nurse to try and. gain some rhythm with his small-ball lineup in the second half.

“The thought process going in is it’s about three games in the making. I’ve been talking about doing it and getting to it for a long time, and I just had never found that or pulled the trigger until we got way down the other night,” Nurse said after Game 6.

That encouraging performance opened the door for Nurse to stick with the look for the final 19 minutes of Game 6 — with Toronto going with three guards along with OG Anunoby playing center. At first glance, the biggest gain would be getting better shooting and shot creation on the floor with three guards, but Nurse actually likes the look for the defensive versatility it provides as well.

“It just gives us a little bit better chance to guard them. That’s the main thing,” Nurse said. “It’s tough when Kemba’s so fast and it’s hard for our bigs sometimes to keep up with him when they’re up, because he can shoot the 3, you’ve got to be up, and then if you creep up too far, he darts by you. It’s hard to play some standard pick-and-roll coverages. That’s kind of where we got to it from.”

With Kemba Walker limited to just five points over 52 minutes in Game 6 during an ugly shooting night, it’s a lock Nurse will turn to this look again, perhaps for bigger minutes. The Celtics declined to downsize against it in Game 6, as Daniel Theis held up nicely defensively against Anunoby until the closing minutes of double OT. The German center also provided a nice boost on the interior with easy baskets on the offensive glass and sealing small defenders on switches (12 points over the two overtimes).

Brad Stevens might be tempted to try to spread the Raptors smaller defenders out more in Game 6 however and add another 3-point shooter to the fold in Brad Wanamaker in place of Theis when Toronto shifts down. More spacing should give Jayson Tatum and Walker more room to operate in the paint, but it also leaves the C’s thin on the boards as well. If Theis can keep the Raptors honest offensively with his finishing, he deserves to stay on the floor, but if not, Wanamaker or Grant Williams (8-of-12 from 3-point range in series) need to be considered to maximize the C’s spacing and provide versatile switching defensively for all five players on the court.

2. What’s a wrinkle we might see from Brad Stevens after six games in the series? The one major adjustment in this series so far for Boston has been the choice to move Marcus Smart onto Kyle Lowry as a primary defender in Game 5. It worked wonders in that blowout win (combined with terrific team defense from Theis), but the containment didn’t hold up in Lowry’s 34-point Game 6. With Toronto’s 3-point shooters hitting from all spots on the floor in the second half, the Celtics had to switch more off screens instead of over helping on Lowry. That, combined with Nurse using actions to get Smart off of Lowry, opened the door for a barrage of 3s and mismatches against Walker late in the post for Lowry. The Celtics will need to tighten things up with this matchup so Smart doesn't get switched off as often.

On the heels of  Nurse taking Walker out of his rhythm with a box-and-1 defense, I’d look for Stevens to get creative in order to free up his point guard in Game 7. Getting him going early needs to be a priority, so I’d expect some creative off-ball actions with Walker to try to get him separation from his man by the time he gets the ball in his hands, especially while the Raptors bigs are on the floor if Toronto is in a zone. Nurse may want to go small, but he doesn’t have the horses to go small for 48 minutes. Stevens needs to get creative to strike early when Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka are on the floor, since that’s the time Walker can do his most damage from an offensive matchup standpoint.

3. How much does Brad Stevens count on the starters? Does he run them 40-45 minutes? Or look to his bench for support? The head coach treated Game 6 like a Game 7 in the fourth quarter, failing to make a substitution from the final minute of the third quarter all the way through both overtimes. This was an understandable path given the C’s deficit and the Raptors decision to go small, but I’d expect more bench run from Wanamaker — given the way he’s shot from 3-point range in this series (50 percent). If the Raptors are going to try to take Walker or Tatum away, the Celtics need shooters on the floor that can make them pay and Wanamaker provides that, along with a secondary playmaking element needed against zones. Elsewhere, Rob Williams should only receive minutes against Gasol, given Ibaka’s red-hot shooting from 3-point range (51.9 percent) has reached a point where those open pops are no longer acceptable to surrender uncontested. Playing small ball center with Grant Williams in the middle may be a solution to that problem, but his fouling (12 over 74 minutes) in this series looms as a trouble spot. Wanamaker may be the only guy that hits double digits in minutes (barring foul trouble) but all the regular reserves have played well enough in this series to get a chance at the beginning of Game 7. Those minutes might dissipate in the second half, but there have been enough sparks on the second unit in this series for Stevens to find out what he has in what will be the first Game 7 for everyone in the bench rotation besides Semi Ojeleye.

4. Should the Celtics prioritize taking away shooters or Kyle Lowry? Stopping Lowry has to be the first priority heading into this game for the Celtics defense (He’s averaging 28.7 ppg in three Raptors wins in this series). Part of slowing him down is simply playing better defense. Lowry took advantage of Walker and others going under screens to nail six 3s in Game 6, and that kind of separation can’t happen in Game 7. However, in order to keep him out of the paint, some help needs to be available to Smart so he can stay tight at the point of attack. Secondary defenders should be sticking to OG Anunoby (50 percent from 3) and Serge Ibaka (51 percent from 3) but it’s time to throw caution to the wind a bit when guarding Marc Gasol or Pascal Siakam (12.9 percent from 3) at the 3-point line. Gasol can hit 3s but he doesn't want to shoot them most nights. Siakam is an All-Star, but his 3-point jump shot has been a mess all postseason and I don’t see that changing in Game 7. While the Celtics shouldn’t want to give Siakam a head of steam going to the rim, they should feel comfortable helping off him more on the perimeter to ensure stronger closeouts on the likes of Ibaka, Anunoby and Powell while maintaining focus on Lowry. It’s going to be tough to keep everyone under wraps, but I think Brad Stevens will take the chance on Siakam beating him with his jump shot if he can take away Lowry.

5. Defense first or offense first at the backup center spot? We touched on this earlier, but I think it might be time to put Timelord on a short leash unless Gasol is getting some serious run in a Game 7. The Celtics defense is eight points worst per 100 possessions with him on the court in this series and that doesn’t bode well during what is likely to be a very physical and well-defended Game 7 by the Raptors. Rob Williams has helped Ibaka get going in this series with late closeouts and that’s one high percentage shooting option that should be eliminated in a high-stakes game like this. Try Rob Williams early if Theis comes out flat against Gasol. Otherwise, this should be a game for spot Grant Williams minutes at center to ensure more reliable perimeter coverage on Ibaka when Theis is resting. Either way, I’d expect Theis to push well over 30-35 minutes in this game to avoid much of the backup center predicament, as long as he avoids early foul trouble. Switching everything needs to be in play to keep Toronto’s secondary shooters from getting into a rhythm in a game that could easily turn into a rock fight given the level of defense both of these teams can play.

6. Who needs to leave a bigger imprint on this one: Jayson Tatum or Kemba Walker? Walker. Tatum took a lot of heat for a guy that finished one assist short of a triple-double in Game 6. He saved three of his turnovers for the biggest moments, but he managed the game well for Boston’s offense in stretches by making the right pass and attacking mismatches. However, I don’t expect him to get going in this one while going against two of Toronto’s best defenders all night in Anunoby and Lowry. Walker has been the engine that makes the Celtics offense go all series long even during two ugly shooting nights. Boston is still scoring 26 points more per 100 possessions when he’s on the court in this series and that speaks to his impact in taking Toronto’s defensive attention and creating for others. The Raptors haven’t had a good defensive answer for him all series and that’s why they junked their defense up to try to take him out of Game 6. Walker and Stevens need to rise to the challenge to ensure that doesn’t happen in Game 7.

7. Who is going to the Eastern Conference Finals? We will stick with our prediction from before the series began of Celtics in 7. Barring a Pascal Siakam re-emergence into an All-Star (nowhere close in this series so far), the Celtics squeak this game out and punch their ticket to a date with the Miami Heat.