The Celtics will head into the 2020 NBA Draft with the No. 14 overall pick (via the Grizzlies) after Memphis failed to move up in the 2020 NBA Draft Lottery on Thursday night.
The odds (97.6 percent) highly favored that the pick would remain slotted in at No. 14 after the Grizzlies missed out on a playoff berth in the Western Conference in Orlando. The Celtics were owed the pick from Memphis stemming from the 2015 trade of Jeff Green.
The pick officially gives Boston three first-round picks (No. 14, 26, 30) for the 2020 NBA Draft, the most out of any team in the league. The Celtics will also have one second-round pick (No. 47 via Brooklyn) that they acquired in the Terry Rozier for Kemba Walker sign-and-trade with Charlotte last summer. Boston also lost their own second-round pick (No. 56) to Charlotte in that deal.
What will the Celtics do with their four draft picks? I took a closer look at the looming roster crunch back in April. Here’s a refresher of the options the front office will need to manage the picks.
Essentially, any first-round pick taken is guaranteed a roster spot unless they are considered a draft-and-stash. The conundrum for Boston? While cheap last first-round talent is helpful in controlling the payroll, finding a spot for more than one rookie on the 15-man roster next year will be a challenge.
Under contract for 2020-21
Kemba Walker ($34.3 million)
Gordon Hayward ($34.1 million – player option)
Jaylen Brown ($23 million)
Marcus Smart ($13.4 million)
Jayson Tatum ($9.8 million once team option is picked up in October)
Daniel Theis ($5 million – team option)
Enes Kanter ($5 million – player option)
Romeo Langford ($3.6 million)
Vincent Poirier ($2.6 million)
Grant Williams ($2.5 million)
Robert Williams ($2.0 million)
Semi Ojeleye ($1.8 million non-guaranteed)
Carsen Edwards ($1.5 million)
Javonte Green ($1.5 million non-guaranteed)
Guaranteed: 12 (if Kanter, Hayward both opt in)
Non-guaranteed: 2 (Ojeleye (7/1 guarantee date), Green)
Total: 14
Likely open roster spots entering offseason: 2 (Ojeleye gets kept and Green gets eventually cut in this projection)
Analysis: This number assumes Hayward and Kanter opts in and the Celtics guarantee Ojeleye’s cheap contract ($1.8 million for next season). Green will likely remain on the roster until training camp since he will have a chance to make the team and his deal is fully non-guaranteed. So technically his roster spot will be open for him or anyone else to earn. More roster space could be created with trades of additional players (Poirier would be a candidate to be dumped) but moving the center would likely cost an asset to dump the salary while freeing up a roster spot. Tremont Waters and Brad Wanamaker will likely be fighting it out for one of these roster spots while the C’s will have the taxpayer mid-level ($6 million) to bring in one or more veterans if they choose from the free-agent market. All of these factors will create a squeeze for Danny Ainge if he elects to use multiple draft picks in the first round.
Celtics draft picks for 2020: No. 14, No. 26, No. 30, No. 47
There are a few ways the Celtics can get around this roster crunch in regards to draft picks if they only have room for one or two rookies. Here are the main options:
1. The Celtics trade one or more first-round picks for a future first-round selection or a veteran (Ex: C’s traded No. 24 last year for Milwaukee’s 2020 first-round pick).
Upside: Retaining an asset for future trades when a rookie won’t help in the present or improving the team more in the present with a veteran that fills a need right away.
Downside: Losing some value on the draft pick. Teams know the Celtics are looking to dump picks so it’s easy to offer a downgrade knowing Boston may not have a better option. The C’s dumping No. 24 in 2019 for a future Bucks pick (No. 30 in 2020) is a risk that could become common. Finding a veteran that helps the Celtics now and also fits into an already pricy payroll will be a challenge.
2. The Celtics use multiple picks to trade up in the draft.
Upside: The Celtics get a better player in the present (hypothetically) while also saving roster slots for other players. Depending on how far they can trade up, they also save some salary as well, which could be important when it comes to managing luxury tax territory (C’s are likely to be above the cap)
Downside: This may be viewed as wasted assets by the front office if the Celtics feel like they can draft a player they like with one of their current selections. League sources tell Bostonsportsjournal.com that the draft crop seems to be very even outside of the lottery with not a lot of clear tiers that would make a trade-up necessary. Intel will tell the story on whether the C’s will need to make a move to get a guy they want but giving up multiple shots on good, cost-controlled players to gamble on just one can look bad down the road.
3. The Celtics use one or more first-round picks on an international player as a draft-and-stash
Upside: This is the easiest way to solve the problem from a numbers standpoint. You take a player, let him develop overseas somewhere and he doesn’t cost anything against the cap during the year away. When the team wants him, they get his full rookie deal intact so it’s a good way to keep cost control in place for future seasons without trading for a future pick.
Downside: Finding a player who is willing to stay overseas for a year can be a challenge. The Celtics managed to do that with Guerschon Yabusele and Ante Zizic in 2016 but both of those gambles proved to be a mistake. Other draft analysts had those guys projected for the second round and likely for good reason. Good talent generally wants to play in the NBA right away so the C’s could be reaching for talent if they find someone in this mold. There are a few international players projected to land in the bottom half of the 2020 NBA Draft (more on them in the days to come) but the C’s will need to get good intel with them on their willingness to be stashed for a year. Otherwise, this route will lead to lackluster returns and wasted money/roster spots (i.e. Yabusele).
Final Thoughts
Moving one of these picks at the trade deadline would have helped to eliminate this issue but opting not to do so now looks helpful given how the season has played out. The draft-and-stash option seems the most unlikely to me given how this team will be entering a ‘win-now’ phase with guys like Walker and Hayward remaining in the tail end of their prime in the present. The strong guess here is we see Ainge take path No. 1 or No. 2 on draft night to set the stage for an impact rookie to be brought into the fold or simply to kick the can on some draft assets so they maintain value for future deals.
