Instead of going through a usual roundup of predictions, let’s spice things up a little bit with some over/unders on key categories and players for the Celtics play in seeding games over the next three weeks.
20 Point per Game Scorers in Bubble
Over/Under: 2.5
Prediction: Under.
This comes down to three guys really since Kemba Walker’s minutes limit should preclude him from hitting 20 points per game before the postseason. Jayson Tatum should be a lock for this as the No. 1 scorer on the team for the year but after that it’s hard to envision both Gordon Hayward and Jaylen Brown both pulling off this hefty feat on a nightly basis. I’d expect Brown to have the inside track early on in this category based on how good he has looked during camp and the C’s scrimmages with Hayward clocking in at the 17-18 ppg range.
Seeding Games Played by Kemba Walker
Over/Under: 5.5
Prediction: Over.
There are a couple of gimmes in this category when it comes to games missed. Walker will sit out the back-to-back against the Nets presumably (since the C’s will want him for the first leg against the Heat). I’m also going to presume that the C’s final seeding game against the Wizards will be relatively meaningless when it comes to the East playoff standings, making that a candidate for Walker to rest (perhaps with other Celtics starters). So the question is now will Walker’s knee hold up over the other seeding games? Based on the limited minutes plan the Celtics training staff has him on, my answer is yes. They are playing it safe and that tactic should pay off with no setbacks. The one wildcard factor: If C’s get locked into the No. 3 seed extra early with 2-3 games left, there may be some incentive to rest Walker for multiple games. However, I think at that point the C’s would be better off getting his minutes load closer to where they want it to be during the postseason so he’s ready to go. I’m sticking with him playing six games.
Romeo Langford non-garbage time appearances
Over/Under: 3.5
Prediction: Over.
At first glimpse, it’s tough to figure out exactly where Langford is going to get consistent minutes within a fully healthy C’s rotation. Walker’s limited playing time should help out of the gate but Kanter/Wanamaker/Ojeleye seem like locks for their bench spots, leaving very few left for Langford and/or Grant Williams. However, it would be wise for the coaching staff to make getting Langford minutes a priority based on the impending situation this postseason where Hayward could miss several games upon leaving the bubble due to the birth of his son. Brad Stevens needs to find who he can rely on upon spreading around Hayward’s minutes in that scenario and giving Langford some run in these seeding games will be a good test on that front.
3-point shooting percentage from Celtics supporting cast
Over/Under: 35 percent
Prediction: Under.
A big part of rotation choices this postseason involving players on Boston’s bench will come down to two things for perimeter reserves: Who can hit an open 3 and who can play good defense? It’s easy to answer the second option based on a player’s track record but the more pressing question for an offensively challenged C’s bench is the shooting. Brad Wanamaker (36 percent) and Semi Ojeleye (36 percent) led the bench during 64 regular-season games on that front but the C’s are going to need a wing (Romeo Langford) or another big (Daniel Theis, Grant Williams) to post respectable averages from deep after the lengthy hiatus in order for Boston to reach its offensive peak. Otherwise, it will be easy for defenses to hone in on Boston's stars whenever only a couple of them are on the floor.
Gordon Hayward FG attempts per game
Over/Under: 14
Prediction: Over.
The Celtics saw both an aggressive and passive version of Hayward during these scrimmage games. He’s averaging 13.7 shots per game so far through 64 regular-season games but that number is honestly too low when you consider his career-high 50 percent shooting from the field. Good things happen when defenses have to consider Hayward as both an aggressive scorer and a creator so look for Stevens to aim for that with the second unit personnel he surrounds the veteran with. Walker won’t be getting up as many shots due to his limited minutes load and the Celtics will be better off with that leftover shot distribution heading Hayward’s way.
Brad Stevens technical fouls
Over/Under: 0.5
Prediction: Under
On the one hand, the lack of a crowd in a bubble would seemingly make officials more likely to hear complaints from coaches on the bench and from players on the floor. While that should get some big talkers in trouble, I expect the even-keeled Stevens to tone down his complaints on the heels of picking up some technicals in tough situations this year (vs. Lakers in February sticks out).
Minutes per Game: Enes Kanter
Over/Under: 17.5
Prediction: Over
The big man looks healthy and the Celtics will be seeing their fair share of frontcourts with a lot of size during the seeding games, including Milwaukee, Portland, Brooklyn, Toronto and Orlando. The coaching staff will try to protect Kanter from having to defend the perimeter too much but that’s going to be a necessity in any playoff matchup so he’s going to get some practice here when the games mean less. A healthy version of Kanter has proven he’s worthy of these minutes early in the year when he’s scoring and rebounding so the bet here is he earns them again. Otherwise, Grant Williams will get a crack at a bigger center minutes load.
3pt attempts per Game: Marcus Smart
Over/Under: 6.5
Prediction: Under.
Smart is taking more 3s than ever this season, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing since nearly 60 percent of the shots he’s taking are coming from downtown. However, an avalanche of injuries to parts of the C’s core this season probably had the veteran guard showing more than his 34.8 percent 3-point shooting indicated he should. With everyone getting back to their planned roles in the offense, Smart’s focus should trend more towards last season when he was a facilitator more than a scorer. The 26-year-old guard is capable of big scoring nights but he shouldn’t be seeking them out and stealing shots from Boston’s top four more efficient scorers in the process. That includes reeling in his 3-point shot selection.
FTA per Game: Jayson Tatum
Over/Under: 5
Prediction: Under.
One of the biggest parts of Tatum’s leap in February was an improved consistency in getting to the charity stripe. He averaged 6.7 free throw attempts per game after the All-Star Break, showcasing enhancing aggression and ability to draw contact in the paint. Those opportunities may not be as plentiful in Orlando since opponents will be planning on stopping him now as their No. 1 priority on defense against the C’s. That should lead to a parade of bodies waiting for him in the paint, which may force Tatum to beat teams with the pass far more than he’s had to so far in his career. Opponents may have to make the adjustment if Kemba Walker returns to form (helping less) but I think navigating the added attention in the paint is one area where the third-year forward will have trouble maintaining his breakout numbers in the meantime.
Seeding game wins for Celtics
Over/Under: 5.5
Prediction: Under.
Walker’s minutes limit looms large here as well as the distinct possibility that the Celtics will have the No. 3 seed locked up midway through the seeding games (a win over the Heat should do it). If that scenario arises, I think you can count on limited minutes for the starters over the final few games, combined with more rest days for Walker. The Celtics should be facing some motivated opponents in two of their final three games (Orlando and Memphis should both be playing to avoid a play-in situation for the 8/9 spots in each conference) so neither game will be a gimme. Factor that in with tough opponents early in Milwaukee, Miami and Toronto and six wins feels a little too high. The prediction here is 5-3 and the No. 3 seed in the East.
East standings predictions
- Milwaukee
- Toronto
- Boston
- Miami
- Philly
- Indiana
- Orlando
- Brooklyn
West standings predictions
- LA Lakers
- LA Clippers
- Denver
- Houston
- Utah
- Oklahoma City
- Dallas
- Memphis (wins spot after play-in against Portland)