McAdam: For Red Sox to contend, offense will have to carry them

There's never been a harder baseball season to forecast.

Attempting to project how a team is going to perform over the course of 162 games is daunting enough. Doing it for a 60-game season is far more problematic. The shorter length of schedule invites statistical aberrations, and then there's the role that the coronavirus can play in derailing a team's chances.

But with the Red Sox getting ready to start the 2020 season Friday, this much seems rather obvious: if the Red Sox are going to be a factor in the American League playoff race, they're going to have to hit their way there.

That approach was tried before in franchise history, often with disappointing results. In the 1970s, the Sox annually boasted a lineup which could mash with any in the game, but even that couldn't overcome the inadequacies of the pitching staffs.

And the 2020 Red Sox starting rotation could be the least imposing the team has fielded in almost a quarter of a century.

Gone from the organization are two pitchers -- David Price and Rick Porcello -- who, even in disappointing seasons, still combined to throw 281.2 innings and record 21 wins last year. Also missing: Chris Sale, out for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in the spring, and even in a decidedly off year cut short by elbow troubles, still had a 1.086 WHIP while averaging 13.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 2019.

Eduardo Rodriguez, the team's best starter a year ago, will open the season on the Injured List (COVID-19) and miss at least his first two turns in a season in which it's likely no starter will make more than a dozen or 13 starts at most.



"We know we're going to be without Eduardo for a while,'' said Ron Roenicke, "and (we have to figure out) how do we still stay competitive, and how do we still stay in there with these good teams that we're going to be playing? We know it's a challenge. We know we've got a good offense. I'm pretty comfortable with that. And we know we're going to catch the ball really well. So, really, probably, that pitching is probably what we're looking at (as something that could be a concern).''

The absence of Rodriguez, in the early going, moves Nathan Eovaldi into the No. 1 spot in the rotation while pushing Martin Perez, signed as a No. 5 option, into the second spot. For now, the only other identified starters are Ryan Weber and Brian Johnson who have, between them, posted a career ERA of 4.85 while going 10-18 in said roles.

That's not enough to inspire much in the way of confidence and it remains an open question as to whether the Red Sox can expect to win many low-scoring games.

Their chances will be better if they can simply out-slug opponents. That's a strategy that is doomed to fail over the long haul,, but in a shortened season, might be somewhat successful.

"Offensively,'' said Roenicke, "we know we're going to be really good.''

Last year, only three MLB teams scored more runs than the Red Sox (901): the New York Yankees (943), Minnesota Twins (939) and the Houston Astros (920). Not coincidentally, those three teams won their respective division, with the Astros edging the Yankees in the ALCS before losing the World Series in seven games.

Of course, the Red Sox lineup that was so feared a year ago is now without its best overall player, Mookie Betts, who led the team in runs scored, on-base percentage and only a year earlier had the best offensive season by a Red Sox player since Carl Yastrzemski's Triple Crown season of 1967.

And yet, the offense is still formidable. Three returning players -- Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez -- had an OPS of at least .916 and combined for 101 homers in 2019.

Betts, as one of the handful of best players in the game, won't be replaced. But the centerpiece of the deal that sent him to the Dodgers, Alex Verdugo, will give the Red Sox much more than replacement player production. And if the Sox can get a bounce-back season from Andrew Benintendi and have Christian Vazquez produce at the same level as a season ago, they could boast above-average production from six spots in the lineup.

"I think that offense, obviously, is a very critical part of what you do,'' said Roenicke. "When you look at the short season and just look at 60 games, you either have to have either great pitching that you know is going to come out right away or you've got to have a good offense that can score runs and keep you there and then when you get hot with your pitching, you can ride that. So I know how important the offense has got to be.

"I'm not saying that we're going to scramble every day to have to score a bunch of runs. I expect our pitching to have a lot of good outings.''

Perhaps in time, the Red Sox will have a healthy Rodriguez to head the rotation and drop the other starters down a notch in the rotation in roles more commensurate with their track records. Or maybe Matt Hall or some other candidate imported this winter becomes the unlikely breakout star of 2020.

But until then, their best bet may be to have 10-8 victories. Lots of them.