There are a lot of unknowns about the Patriots and the 2020 season (starting with whether there will be a season), especially on offense. We don't know who the starting quarterback is going to be. We don't know how the offense is going to look, depending on said starting quarterback.
But it's safe to say the odds are good that Cam Newton is the Patriots' starting quarterback to succeed Tom Brady. And if that happens, the offense will definitely look different.
If Newton is the starter, then the offense will match his strengths. That means, there will be a healthy blend of traditional runs from the tailback, a pocket passing game, but also more zone-reads, read-options and a mobile passing game.
You don't enter a Ferrari in a truck race, and vice versa. A player like Newton is his best version when he can use his multiple skills — throwing, running and improvisation — every game.
And the Patriots' offense will likely reflect that.
So how would that Patriots' offense, which will look more like the Ravens with Lamar Jackson than the one used by Brady for 20 years, fare against this year's schedule?
Actually, the Patriots' 2020 schedule looks fairly formidable when it comes to defending a multiple offense.
Why? It starts with scheme ... and speed.
Actually, we'll start with how teams fared defensively against Jackson and the Ravens last season because it will illustrate what is at the heart of this.
What you will see is a list of the Ravens' 17 games from last season ranked by expected points by the Ravens — how well they were defended — from best to worst. We also included the points scored by the Ravens and their rushing yards.
A few things jump out. The top seven teams (NOT the Patriots) did a decent job in their games — certainly good enough to win. The Steelers obviously have the benefit of divisional familiarity. But the other big thing?
All the top seven teams were either 3-4 teams, or fast teams, or both.
3-4 teams: Steelers, Titans, Browns, 49ers.
4-3 teams but fast: Bills, Seahawks.
Even teams 8 (Cardinals) and 9 (Patriots) fit as 3-4 teams.
This makes sense.
The 3-4 is the best run defense overall, and is also the best-equipped to deal with the zone-read because there is better gap coverage and you have edge players as outside linebackers who are better overall athletes than 4-3 ends and are accustomed to playing on their feet, which you need to do to really defend a versatile QB.
(You can read more about this in my SI.com piece from 2013: The NFL's Knowledge Gap.)
If you play 4-3, then you better be really fast on defense, and the Bills and Seahawks are that.
So now we have some idea of the defensive traits that have given the Ravens some issues. What does that mean for the Patriots' schedule?
It certainly could be better from a New England perspective, that's for sure.
First of all, the Patriots play the Ravens ... not only are they a 3-4, but they face Jackson in practice every day. So let's just concede that will be a tough matchup, if not the toughest.
Of the Patriots' 16 games, eight are against 3-4 teams: Ravens, Dolphins (twice), Broncos, 49ers, Texans, Cardinals and Rams.
Of the remaining eight games, four are against 4-3 teams that would be categorized as fast: Seahawks, Bills (twice) and Chargers (changing schemes).
That means 12 of 16 games (75 percent) are matchups that would not be considered advantageous, including six games against teams that did at least OK vs. Baltimore (Ravens, Bills twice, 49ers, Seahawks, Cardinals).
Working for the Patriots: Belichick's tree of the 3-4 did not do well against Jackson (including New England) and they face the Dolphins (17th out of 17) twice and the Texans (15th out of 17 — how is that possible with Deshaun Watson?!). And the Raiders play a vanilla 4-3 defense that is slow on the edge and will basically be starting an entirely new set of linebackers who will be learning on the fly.
So, yeah, this is not a dream slate of opponents if the Patriots were going to become more QB run-based than previously.
I asked Aaron Schatz of FootballOutsiders.com (2020 almanac out July 15th!) for his input, and he stayed mostly to the AFC East:
Defensive DVOA against these runs, which are QB runs not marked a scramble or botched handoff — this does include QB sneaks though (note, does not include opponent adjustment, I don't have that in this rushing workbook):
NYJ -35.3% (4) - 20 for 74
BUF -35.2% (5) - 21 for 61
MIA +9.1% (25) - 15 for 84
NE +15.1% (28) - 21 for 102
If you take out sneaks (1-2 yards to go), the Jets and Bills move to the middle of the league, but so do the Dolphins.
So I think the overall result here is: 1) nothing too telling about the division rivals, 2) the Pats did seem to have a problem with QB runs, but 3) the sample size is pretty small so it doesn't really tell you much anyway. Take out sneaks and the Pats faced 17 of these runs, and 11 of them were from Jackson, with 5 from Josh Allen and 1 from Andy "the track star" Dalton. This basically says the Pats had a problem with Jackson. Well, duh.
Actually I went to look. Over half the runs faced by all four teams were either Jackson or Griffin because all four teams played the Ravens last year.