What awaits Bruins if salary cap limit remains flat in 2021?

In a move that seemed all but inevitable, the massive loss of revenue tied into the COVID-19 stoppage of play is going to create a financial migraine for a number of Stanley Cup contenders in the coming years.

A four-year extension of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement between the NHL and NHLPA is still awaiting official ratification, but a number of details regarding the document already leaked — whether it be Olympics participation in 2022/2026, financial concessions in regards to paychecks and escrow and no limits on signing bonuses. 

But if we’re looking at a headliner in this extensive document, it’s tough to ignore the fiscal constraints looming on the horizon — namely, a flat salary cap for the 2020-21 season.

Now, if you’ve been following along since the COVID-19 stoppage began in mid-March, this news isn’t all that surprising — as we’ve braced for a scenario in which teams would need to move ahead with an upper limit that remains at this year’s maximum allotment of $81.5 million.

And while we’ve already forecasted the troubles that lie ahead for the Bruins (and especially a few other contenders across the NHL) given that an expected cap-ceiling stimulus up to $84-88.2 million is now off the table, such financial troubles won’t exactly be eradicated in the following seasons, either. 

Yes, the salary cap’s upper limit will be frozen for 2020-21 at $81.5 million, but there is no guarantee that teams will be primed for another boost ahead of the 2021-22 campaign. According to a report from TSN's Frank Seravalli, the league's cap ceiling limit will remain frozen until hockey-related revenue (HRR) returns to $4.8 billion — which was the projected total for the 2019-20 NHL season before the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Once that revenue pushes itself up to that $4.8 billion threshold, the upper limit will be determined using a new formula that relies on the actual hockey-related revenue from two seasons ago, along with the projected HRR from the previous season. 

In a perfect world, one would hope that the HRR for the 2020-21 season would soar back to that $4.8 billion projection, but that's far from a guarantee. Rather, you could view it as a long shot.

While the NHL has been adamant about playing a full 82-game season in 2020-21 (even with a later start date in December/January), the odds of the league maxing out said revenue next year are slim — considering both the gloomy financial outlook across North America and the likelihood that we might not have packed arenas at sporting events until a vaccine is fully developed.

So what happens then if the Bruins are forced to contend with a $81.5 million cap limit for three straight seasons?



Before we look at any cap projections for 2021, let's recap Boston's financial outlook for 2020 — an offseason with more questions now than answers, even with Don Sweeney's efforts of freeing up $5.8 million in deals involving both David Backes and Danton Heinen. 

While a projected cap limit increase to $84-88.2 million would have helped immensely, the Bruins are still now projected to have around $19.5 million in cap room once the 2019-20 season is wrapped up — a good amount to work with, but a sum that can be drained in a hurry given the number of free agents set to hit the open market.

https://twitter.com/bruinscapspace/status/1278414440958963714

Now, for the sake of moving forward to 2021, let's project these AAV terms for Boston's list of pending free agents — at least among those that we project Boston to try and retain.

Torey Krug — $7.25 million AAV
Zdeno Chara — $2 million AAV – with additional performance bonuses
Jake DeBrusk — $3.75  million AAV
Matt Grzelcyk — $2.75 million AAV
Anders Bjork —  $1.5 AAV
Karson Kuhlman — $1 million AAV

Some of these projects might be lowballing a player's value, but given Boston's propensity to strike deals centered on hometown discounts — coupled with the financial reality that many free agents might have to bite the bullet and take less than their projected value due to these revenue hits — these will be the projections that we will roll with in this exercise.

Those projected signings do give Boston some wiggle room, with the B's still compliant with $1.25 million in available cap room — with Krug's contract standing as the ultimate determinant in terms of the club's financial outlook beyond this season.

Now, on to 2021 — a year already posed to uproot many NHL rosters, given that, along with the threat of another flat cap, NHL Seattle will be licking its chops on the eve of its Expansion Draft. Such a draft could allow Boston to free up some additional capital ahead of the 2021 offseason, but if Krug is retained (and taking one of those protected spots), it'd seem like a given that Seattle will pluck a player like DeBrusk or Grzelcyk — given both their age and reasonable price tag.

Already down a key cog thanks to the NHL's latest franchise, the Bruins will once again have their work cut out for them just a few weeks later once free agency begins.

Yes, Boston should have a lot more money coming off the books, easing some of the concerns brought on by another flat cap of $81.5 million. But man, do they have some holes to fill in the process.

If we factor in the contracts we projected for 2020 (while taking Grzelcyk's contract off the books due to Seattle), Boston could be looking at around $31 million in projected cap space with a flat cap. Not bad! But let's take a look at who is hitting the open market that summer:

2021 UFAs:

Tuukka Rask + Jaroslav Halak: The duo that have arguably been the top goalie tandem in the league over the last few seasons will both be due for new contracts ahead of the 2021-22 season. While Boston does have some intriguing goalie prospects in the pipeline with Jeremy Swayman, Dan Vladar and Kyle Keyser — it'd require quite the leap of faith to go from two All-Star caliber goalies to a fresh new netminder the following season. Methinks Rask resigns in Boston, although projecting a term and AAV could be tricky.

David Krejci: Much like Krug the previous year, Krejci's status might be the top question mark surround Boston's offseason plans. Given that the veteran pivot isn't planning on retiring, Boston faces a tough decision as to what to do with a skater that has served as a constant in Boston's top-six grouping for over a decade.

Sean Kuraly: Given Kuraly's ability to play up in the lineup, kill penalties, drive a bottom-six trio and elevate his game in crunch-time situations, the B's speedy forward should be in line for a pretty sizable pay bump in 2021 and beyond.

Par Lindholm: After likely earning an increase in playing time in 2020 due to a few additional departures in Boston's bottom-six, Lindholm could be the next buy-low, sell-high skater that prices himself out of Boston.

2021 RFAs:

Brandon Carlo: Already one of the more underrated blueliners in the league, Carlo settled for a team-friendly bridge deal when he inked a two-year, $5.7 million contract extension last September. Don't expect a similar agreement this time around, although Boston still has some leverage here, given that Carlo remains an RFA.

Ondrej Kase + Nick Ritchie: While the jury is still out on Boston's latest deadline acquisitions, Boston does have a leg up in negotiations with these two given their RFA status.

So yes, given the amount of money set to come off the books, Boston should be able to avoid a serious cap crunch in 2021 in the event that the $81.5 million limit remains intact. Still, given the number of key cogs up for new deals and the threat of the expansion draft, it still won't be a walk in the park for Sweeney and Co.

Of course, things can change in a hurry, given this financial climate. Krug could opt to sign elsewhere, allowing Boston to protect a player like Grzelcyk against Seattle — while also allowing for much more financial flexibility in the future. Zdeno Chara could opt to hang up his skates before the 2021-22 season, etc. Hell, we could opt to be an optimist for once and project that the HRR will once again hit $4.8 billion next season, allowing for a bump in the cap limit.

Still, whichever way you want to frame it, COVID-19's impact on the NHL is going to be felt for quite some time — and the financial ramifications are going to cause quite a few clubs to take a long look at their rosters in the years ahead.