There are many lingering questions about Cam Newton's signing with the Patriots, and we'll be tackling those over the next couple of days. After doing some reporting in the least 36 hours, let's start with the timing of the deal, and then move onto what this may or may not say about Jarrett Stidham's future.
Why sign Newton now and not three months ago?
This a popular one, and the conspiracy theories also touch on Stidham — Did Bill Belichick not like Stidham's wedding trip to Texas while Tom Brady is working out in Tampa?! — and also the Bengals' taping punishment.
The simple answer: This is when it had to happen because there are two sides to every negotiation. You may think Newton had no other options. His agents might think Newton had no other options. But those are two very different things than a former MVP and Heisman Trophy winner, who views himself as an icon, agreeing to sign a contract that pays him the league-minimum. That takes a lot of ego swallowing, which should tell you something.
I don't know all the details of the Patriots' contacts with Newton's camp since he was released by the Panthers, but I do know it was a one-way Newton street for a while. And, really, part of that had to do with where the Patriots were/are cap-wise, and that was not going to change until late July or August. The Patriots simply were not going to add a quarterback for more than the minimum (Marcus Mariota got $7.5 million from the Raiders; Andy Dalton received $3.5 million from Dallas). It's pretty insulting and also a bad look for a team to go to a former MVP, who should be in his prime at 31 but ran into injury issues, and offer a minimum-salary deal in March, April or May. I mean, that's a really bad look and would get around the league.
Basically, if the Patriots were going to sign a Newton for the minimum, it could only happen if he came to them with hat in hand and just wanting a shot to win. And that's exactly what Newton did this week.
The word most associated with Newton in his dealings with the Patriots — win. That's his only stated desire to them at this point. After that, this deal for Newton is not about this season, it's about the next four or five. If he has a successful season with the Patriots, he's either going to get a solid offer from the Patriots to be the guy, or he's going to get a megadeal elsewhere and set up his final act.
The Patriots had two great sources of intel on Newton, besides Norv Turner: new WR Damiere Byrd, who was in Carolina before playing with Arizona last year, raved about Newton's work ethic and ability to work with teammates; and Panthers quarterbacks coach Jake Peetz, who was going to be Josh McDaniels' offensive coordinator with the Colts. Everything checked out and then some — there's an excitement in the building (if Newton is healthy ... everything is prefaced with that) where there was previously a lot of apprehension.
Does it hurt that the Patriots are now basically in line to recoup that third-round pick they lost in the Bengals incident, with a Newton comp pick? No.
Newton wasn't the plan, but this outcome was the plan. The Patriots wanted/expected Brady. That failed because he really did sign elsewhere out of spite, so his cap space went to Joe Thuney as Belichick gambled he'd get more than a third-round comp this year instead of next year (could still happen in July/August/Sept.). After that and knowing there were more starting-caliber QBs than starting spots available, the Patriots would likely take whoever was left to compete with Stidham and Brian Hoyer at about the minimum for this season.
That was it. That was the plan.
One more thing on the timing. I think it's no coincidence Newton signed with the Patriots days after the NFL told teams camp would start on time. The unknown had become known, to a large extent. Also, the team needed at least three starting QBs given the unknown with the pandemic.
And Newton did not need to be in the Zoom meetings this offseason. With the preseason likely cut back and no joint practices, there is going to be basically six weeks of learning in this camp. It's plenty of time to run a scheme that will be dumbed down and new to all of them.
I thought Jarrett Stidham was the guy ... what about him now?
How long have I been telling you this was never about Stidham, this was purely about circumstances? Namely:
- The Patriots believed Brady would return when no wide market developed for his services and Brady was left with only teams like the Buccaneers and Chargers as suitors (they were almost right);
- When Brady left out of spite (and Belichick not changing his tune one bit to allow even the slightest partnership), Belichick thought it was a better investment to use Brady’s cap money to place the franchise tag on Joe Thuney with a first- or second-round pick as possible trade compensation, instead of a retread quarterback;
- Beyond Joe Burrow, the Patriots didn’t think any quarterback prospect other than Justin Herbert had the potential to start as a rookie, and the capital needed to take him (or even Tua Tagovailoa) didn’t make any sense where the team is and the way the team is set up for 2021);
- The pandemic has made the additions of outside veteran quarterbacks almost impossible due to the unknown with season preparation;
- The Patriots had little cap space and they’d prefer not to kick the cap can down the road when they can reset with $90 million in space in 2021.
Here’s what I’ve been able to glean about how the team views Jarrett Stidham. Certainly, for where he was drafted, Stidham had an impressive rookie season from camp and preseason, to the work he did behind the scenes.
But I don’t get the sense the team is all aboard the Stidham train should things go south with Brady. Do they think they could win with him? Sure, as a part-timer. But the feeling is very similar to what they had with Jimmy Garoppolo at this stage — he really needs another season to be considered a legitimate NFL starter. So there will be other quarterbacks who can start that are seriously considered.
