Some thoughts as we cross an important threshold today — NFL training camps open to veterans one month from today — that we weren't sure ever was going to get here, and we still have some lingering doubts that it will be hit on the nose.
We'll start with the Ravens and Chiefs, dump on Josh Allen again, have good things to say about Matt Patricia (?), identify the first fired coach and give you the name of the Patriots player no one is talking about now but will once the season starts....
1. If you had to identify a weakness for the Patriots to target against the Ravens — provided a lot of things go right and that game means something — what would it be at this point?
Yeah, good luck, considering PFF just ranked the Ravens as having the best roster in the league (Patriots were 18th). PFF identified the interior offense line as Baltimore's biggest weakness, and there's some validity to that especially since all three spots are far from solidified after All-Everything right guard Marshal Yanda retired. Center Matt Skura is good, but didn't finish the season. Left guard Brad Bozeman is nothing to write home about at this time. DJ Fluker could be a major liability on the right side.
But what PFF negates to take into account, when taking aim at the offensive line, is the offensive style of the Ravens and the running ability of QB Lamar Jackson basically acts as additional offensive linemen (to say nothing of Baltimore's excellent blocking TEs) and makes them look better. Unlike other teams, you can't just look at the offensive line, grade the five guys and directly compare them to other teams. The TEs are great, so that's one extra gap to defend. Jackson is special with the ball, so that's an additional gap.
It all makes the offensive line's job easier, so the Ravens' line is basically worked with bonus points before the race starts.
As far as a Ravens' weakness to target, I'm going to go with something else, and this goes along with what the Patriots were able to do in last year's matchup.
On paper, the Ravens have a secondary that rivals the Patriots with Jimmy Smith, Marcus Peters, Marlon Humphrey and Earl Thomas. They also should get Tavon Young back at corner.
There are a couple of concerning things: Smith rarely stays healthy and is 32 and declining, Thomas is 31 and slowing and SS DeShon Elliott is very green. The Ravens may very well move Smith to safety on third downs, if not every down at some point.
“It’s one of those things where it’s a wait-and-see thing," said defensive coordinator Don Martindale. "In my own mind, like I said, you’ve got to wait until you see, until you get to practice and everything else. Jimmy [Smith] has already done what Brandon Carr did last year. We put him against good tight ends to cover in special situations – whether it’s a third down, or two-minute [drill], or what have you, or different kinds of packages. But the thing that comes out about that is the best 11 in this defense could be … The best 11 will play, but it could be a different set of 11 for every package and matchup that we want to do, with whatever situation it is.”
Smith is so talented he could be another Charles Woodson or Rod Woodson as a cornerback who transitioned later to safety without much issue. But it took Woodson about a year to really get it. Teams were already targeting Smith last year with speed matchups ... they'll be looking for him at safety too.
And, remember, despite getting off to a terrible start and throwing to a new guy (Mohamed Sanu) and old guy (Ben Watson) a lot, the Patriots were still able to rip off 285 yards passing and were a Julian Edelman fumble away from taking the lead against the Ravens in the second half.
I think the Ravens can be passed on, and you might need to in order to keep up with Jackson.
2. What about the Chiefs?
Same weakness for me (secondary) as the Ravens, and KC is a lot worse. Bashaud Breeland and Charvarius Ward are slotted up a spot (Breeland, should be CB2, Ward a CB3) than they should be. Tyrann Mathieu is a good star in the slot, but I like him freelancing more.
Interesting that the Ravens and Chiefs are weakest in the secondary and the Patriots ... stayed the same at receiver and got worse at quarterback.
That defense better be really good again. Actually, it needs to be better than last year.
3. Why do teams fall in love with their quarterbacks, like the Bills with Josh Allen?
And Mark Sanchez and the Jets, and Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins before them (is this an AFC East thing that Ernie Adams has infected them with)?
I have no clue and it's one of the biggest frustrations I've had from covering the NFL. It's the most important position in sports, you literally can never have enough good players at QB, they're always in demand ... so why not always be looking for the next great one?
The reason this happens usually has to do with ego, like everything in football. A GM drafts his fair-haired boy and wants to look brilliant. The QB doesn't get off to a great start, and maybe somebody else in the organization bends the ear of the owner and says they should look for another guy. The GM wants to protect his job. If he brings in another QB who is better, the owner wonders why he has the GM around.
The GM, who has personnel control written into his contract, can do what's in the best interest of franchise, or he can do what's in the best interest of his career.
Many men are weak.
Somebody needs to explain to me what the downside would be of bringing in real competition for Josh Allen? If he can't handle the internal competition, he's not an NFL starting QB. If he loses, the Bills have a better QB directing a good team. If he wins, maybe the competition kicks Allen in the ass and makes the Bills better.
No, instead, when Allen fails again this season to be a difference-maker, the Bills have no real backup to choose from (Matt Barkley, Davis Webb and rookie Jake Fromm) and you just wasted another season of a really good roster.
GM Brandon Beane should be smarter than that.
It's really a shame. And stupid.
4. Which team will go from worst to first?
Is parity dead? After six teams from 2015-18 went from worst to first, none did it last season. In fact, all eight bottom-feeders failed to eclipse .500 and half stayed in last place.
I think that will be an aberration, although the pandemic is not going to help teams looking to change things up.
Here's the list of last-place teams from last year: Dolphins, Bengals, Jaguars, Chargers, Redskins, Lions, Panthers, Cardinals.
Let's eliminate some off the bat. The 7. Bengals and 8. Jaguars are just terrible.
The 5. Redskins (Ron Rivera) and 6. Panthers (Matt Rhule) have new coaches, and sometimes they can catch lightning in a bottle, but those are serious rebuilds.
That leaves, in descending order:
4. Chargers ... Way better than their record but a new QB, and the Chiefs and Raiders will be tough to pass.
3. Dolphins ... No more Tom Brady in the AFC East, so a team that ended on an upswing last year can't be entirely ruled out.
2. Cardinals ... One of my sleeper teams that will take a big leap from five wins, but can they really leapfrog the 49ers and Seahawks? I have serious doubts.
The last-place team with the best chance to win their division...
1. Lions: The Fightin' Matt Patricias from Motown, come on down!
Ok, so I don't feel great about this because Patricia could just as easily be the first coach fired as to finish in first place — something the Lions haven't done since I was a freshman in college (1993) — and I'm not the biggest Patricia fan in the world solely because I don't love Belichick assistants who had only been Belichick assistants. But there's a solid case here, staring with a division that is usually closely packed.
If Stafford is back, this offense could be really good. The defense could take a big leap thanks to Patriots Midwest: Trey Flowers, Danny Shelton, Jamie Collins, Justin Coleman and Duron Harmon. Rookies CB Jeffrey Okudah and Edge Julian Okwara could make an instant impact.
Not a lot of changeover during the pandemic — most of the new guys on defense already know the scheme and Patricia.
I have a good feeling about the Lions this year. I expect to hear a lot of this...
5. Since you mentioned it with Patricia, who is the first coach fired?
It's either going to be Doug Marrone (as the scapegoat for the failings and utter dysfunction of the front office), Adam Gase (a lot of issues there) or Dan Quinn, who probably should have been let go this past offseason but was saved by a four-game winning streak to finish the season (three of those wins were over the Panthers, Jaguars and Bucs ... weee).
I'm going with Quinn. Falcons could start 0-4 against Seattle, Dallas, Chicago and Green Bay. If Atlanta loses to the rebuilding Panthers in Week 5, that could be it.
6. Give me some hope on the Patriots ... who's the one player who I'll love watching this season who no one is really talking about?
Well, besides the fullbacks/H-backs — who we were first to tell you would be a different type of position this season for the Patriots' offense — and Byron Cowart (we told you that last week), I still can't believe no one's talking about safety Adrian Phillips. Nobody has any idea how good and smart this guy is. He's a huuuuge upgrade over Duron Harmon as the third safety.
Put it to you this way: I was giddy watching his game film. He's so freaking smart.
My synopsis of Phillips:
If I knew my team had to go through the Ravens and Chiefs in the AFC and I could pick one player to help me against those teams, it just might be Adrian Phillips. He was outstanding in his last two matchups with those teams and should be a huge asset, especially, against the Ravens. Nothing against Chung, who is very good when healthy, but Phillips’ mind makes him a next-level asset in the box against the RPO of the Ravens against Lamar Jackson. You won’t see him carrying a player who doesn’t have the ball unless he’s totally fooled, I can tell you that much.
Even on film, Phillips shows a thorough knowledge of the 10 other spots in his defensive scheme, and is a leader who makes a lot of checks. Phillips also does his homework and may know the opposing offensive scheme better than some of his coaches.
Unless injuries become a factor, Phillips should take his career to another level with the Patriots and will be a huge bargain at $6 million over two years.