In many ways, there's a great deal that we don't know about the immediate future of pro sports, and baseball in particular.
What will the quality of play be like after such a long layoff? Will the game still have the same appeal? When -- even after it's deemed safe by health experts and permissible -- will fans feel comfortable returning to the ballpark?
Add to that list: what will the long shutdown and resulting startup to the game's economic system?
That is unlikely to be at the forefront of most fans' list of priorities. There are far greater issues to tackle in the coming months, and sports, above all else, is designed to serve as a distraction from bigger issues. And at a time when unemployment is expected to top 25 percent, there will few worried about the economic fate of ballplayers, many of whom have already millions.
Still, it would be naive to think there won't be some fallout when it comes to player salaries. If the 2020 games are played before few fans -- or, potentially, none at all -- that will impact the owners' bottom line. And because of changing habits, fear of a return of the virus and continued social distancing, it's pretty much a given that attendance in 2021 will also be negatively affected.
In an era when even the biggest stars (Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, J.D. Martinez) have recently had to wait until spring training before obtaining nine-figure deals, how will the landscape change this winter and next?
"I think,'' ventured on baseball executive recently, "it's fair to assume there's some sort of reckoning coming when it comes to (free agent) salaries.''
In that regard, Mookie Betts may find himself as the perfect test case.
By any measurement, Betts is one of the best handful of players in the game. A case could be made that, among current players, only Mike Trout is better. Betts will turn 28 in October, enabling him to hit the free-agent market in his prime.
There are no negatives about his game. Nor as there any known off-field issues. Before the pandemic wreaked havoc, it was widely assumed that Betts stood to realize a payday that could approach -- if not top -- $400 million.
And now? Such a windfall seems unimaginable. If revenues are going to be drastically reduced in the near future, how can it be expected that the salary structure will go unchanged?
Betts will very likely be the highest-paid player next winter, since he's unquestionably the best player in a free-agent class that will include J.T. Realmuto, Marcus Semien and George Springer. But the actual dollars are certain to be reduced. By how much is anyone's guess.
For years, players made the reasonable assumption that contracts would go in just one direction: upward. That gave them the leverage to wait and test the market, knowing that a huge payday awaited them. Sure, there was the risk of injury or a poor performance in a walk year, but far more often than not, the waiting proved to be a sound strategy.
Now, that might not be the case.
Almost exactly 13 months ago, Xander Bogaerts, not long ago Betts' teammate, chose security over the lure of more dollars on the open market. He signed a six-year, $120 million extension to remain with the Red Sox, months before he would have been eligible for free agency.
The deal appeared club-friendly at the time, and Bogaerts found himself in the unusual position of having to defend agreeing to a contract which would guarantee him $20 million annually for the next six years (seven if an easily-attainable option for 2026 is realized).
Today, that deal looks like a stroke of brilliance. While $20 million is hardly the top of the free-agent salary market, it may resemble exactly that this coming off-season.
"For sure,'' Bogaerts told BostonSportsJournal.com. "Obviously, I couldn't have predicted the coronavirus coming around. At the time that I signed, there was a lot of talk (that I could have gotten more if I waited), but I'm super happy with where I am, very happy with what I got. Who knows, I might not have signed until (this recent) spring training and then all of this happened and who knows what would have taken place?
"So I'm very thankful to the Red Sox and the commitment we made to each other. I'm super excited going forward. This virus was so unpredictable.''
It's funny how perspective can change in a year's time. His deal with the Sox, once seen as a bargain for the Red Sox, now looks like a great deal for Bogaerts, given the changing landscape.
"I think it will,'' said Bogaerts. "This thing has caused a big hit on the game economically, and every business in the world. It put a stop to a lot of this stuff. We know it's going to be a while to get back to normal, but hopefully, we continue to follow the proper guidelines and try to get past this. Economically, it's been a big hit on sports in general and everything else.
"It's going to be tough for teams signing guys going forward. Hopefully, we can get past this quickly and have a better future.''
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