Celtics 2020 free agency outlook: Exploring the point guard market

As the NBA regular season remains on hold, there remains plenty of uncertainty on if and when the 2019-20 campaign will resume in the coming months.

The one thing we know right now is that the NBA calendar will not look normal in the upcoming offseason assuming some kind of postseason is held. That will likely lead to a shorter offseason schedule with a potentially quick turnaround for teams to handle their planning, particularly for squads that are set for potential late postseason runs.

Once a week during the shutdown, we will be taking a deep look at some of these big picture questions to better prepare for what lies ahead for this squad in the years to come in the 2020 offseason. Our next topic: What happens at backup point guard?

Depth chart under contract for 2020-21

Starter: Kemba Walker ($34.3 million)

Can play/run point: Marcus Smart ($13.4 million), Gordon Hayward ($34.1 million)

Overview: Even if you exclude Hayward’s number, this is the area of the roster with the most money tied up already between Smart and Walker for next season. Walker’s age (30) and knee injury history will make keeping his regular-season minutes under control a major priority going forward for the franchise in order to protect their long-term investment and ensure he’s healthy for the postseason. Smart will remain fully capable of running the second unit as needed but his role as a Swiss-army knife for Brad Stevens when injuries pop up to other wings, along with defending multiple positions on the floor makes it unlikely to keep him pegged as a primary backup point guard all year. Defending top wings will be his main priority most nights and it’s evident this season that Stevens would prefer to use another ball-handling guard (Brad Wanamaker) alongside Smart with the second unit on most nights. Carsen Edwards has not showed the passing chops yet at the NBA level to be counted on in that role so there will be a battle for this reserve point guard spot in training camp next year.

In-house candidates: Brad Wanamaker (unrestricted free agent), Tremont Waters (restricted free agent)

Overview: Waters is guaranteed to at least have the chance to compete for a 15-man roster spot in training camp after spending the majority of his rookie season in the G-League and earning a spot on the midseason All-NBA G-League team. The 22-year-old still needs to work on his outside shot and his 5-foot-10 frame is a concern when it comes to handling switches. However, Waters’ passing and dynamic defensive ability has a good chance of outweighing those concerns with another strong summer and training camp.

On the flip side of the coin is the incumbent Brad Wanamaker. The senior citizen of the current Celtics roster will hit unrestricted free agency this offseason after a strong second year in Boston. Despite a midseason shooting slump, Wanamaker has fared well in a low usage point role off the Boston bench, knocking down 36.7 percent of his 3s while using his bulk as a 6-foot-3 guard to help allow Boston’s second unit defense serve as its strength. His lack of speed and a high turnover rate could lead the C’s to turn a different younger direction this offseason but he’s provided good bang for the buck at the veteran’s minimum this offseason. Wanamaker will surely have suitors overseas this summer and perhaps around the NBA as well, although the economic fallout from the coronavirus shutdown may limit how lucrative those overseas offers are. The Celtics would gladly welcome him back for the league minimum, as long as he could beat out Waters or perhaps some other outside competition for the spot.

Draft possibilities: We will take a closer look at first-round prospects in the upcoming weeks here at BSJ but I don’t think this is a position the C’s will target after drafting and grooming Waters. If they are going to go young at this spot, it’s likely with the LSU product that has a year of experience in the system under his belt. With the glut of young talent across Boston’s roster already, this is one position that won’t need more of it.

Free-agent options: The Celtics will have the taxpayer mid-level exception to spend but are unlikely to do it at point guard with so much money tied up at the position already between Walker and Smart. Any other veteran brought aboard would be for the veteran’s minimum in all likelihood since the C’s will likely already be approaching going well above the tax line without addressing bigger needs within other areas of the roster.

So what type of talent might be looked at as a replacement or competition for Wanamaker and/or Waters? A few names to keep an eye out for that could be had for the veteran’s minimum.

Yogi Ferrell: The 27-year-old guard was a bench spark plug in Dallas for a couple of years this decade but has been glued to the bench at the end of a deep guard rotation in Sacramento. Lacks good size (6-0) but is a career 36.5 percent shooter from 3-point range that can score in bunches. A shoot-first point guard.

Michael Carter-Williams: The Massachusetts native has seen a career resurgence with the Orlando Magic after bouncing around the league for the past few seasons. He lacks a reliable outside shot but his size (6-foot-5) and length make him one of the better backcourt defenders off the bench in the NBA. If any team puts enough shooters around him on the floor, his defensive strengths can outweigh his offensive limitations.

Shabazz Napier: It would be a great story to see the Roxbury product make a return to Boston in front of friends and family on the Garden floor. Despite a career year (10.3 ppg) during the 2019-20 season so far, the fact that he’s done it for two bad teams is unlikely to earn him much more interest than a veteran deal. Napier’s offensive game remains his strength, as an undersized guard (6-foot-0) that can score in bunches. He’s in the midst of the best passing season of his career but there are some red flags as well in his game (high turnover rate, up-and-down 3-point shooter). Easily, the most accomplished name on this low-cost option list but his defensive limitations could keep the C’s from taking a flier on him.

Other free-agent guards that are likely not matches

Jeff Teague/Reggie Jackson: Offense-first guys that will probably be looking for bigger roles than will be available in Boston.

Brandon Knight: Not much left in the tank here after years of injuries.

Matthew Dellavedova: Incredibly only 30-years-old. Feels like he’s been in the league forever. His best days are behind him.

Emmanuel Mudiay: Lottery talent in his prime but fell out of the rotation in Utah over the past two months. Has not shown good offensive feel or consistency in his career to this point.

Final Thoughts

Barring a big trade to clear out some of the roster glut, it’s hard to envision more than two of the following players making the final 15-man roster next season.

Brad Wanamaker
Carsen Edwards
Tremont Waters
Free agent minimum guard X
Rookie guard X

There is always a possibility that the Celtics could try to bring Waters back on a two-way deal again (possible if he doesn’t have a market in restricted free agency) but the heavy roster commitments (12 under contract) and draft picks (four) will make openings hard to come by. A strong showing in the postseason by Wanamaker will make him the frontrunner to this spot. Otherwise, an open competition during training camp between Waters and co. may ultimately lead to the final spot.