NFL Notebook: Taking stock of the AFC contender picture, AFC East after first wave of free agency; How Covid-19 could change QB landscape

The first wave of free agency is over — and it might have skipped all the way through to the third phase — with all the big money doled out and the big moves made.

There was quite a flurry there so it's a good time to take stock of what everyone has been up to, and how the landscape has shifted among the AFC contenders and the Patriots' brethren in the AFC East. And, oh yes, we take stock of the Patriots. We're going in descending DVOA order.

Away we go...



What I liked: Holy big defensive front, Batman. A year after the Ravens were not good at defending the run (19th DVOA), the Ravens went out and got the 6-5 Brockers and 6-7 Campbell to line up around the stout Brandon Williams at nose tackle. They should see a dramatic improvement there. And the biggest offseason win for the Ravens will always be that offensive coordinator Greg Roman didn't get a head coaching job and take his system – which has made Lamar Jackson, not the other way around — with him.

What I didn't like: Don't love the Ravens at LG and C. They could get away with it if Marshall Yanda didn't retire, but now they're weaker at all three spots. I really wonder if the Patriots got a whiff of the Ravens sniffing around Thuney (I'm told the Ravens had no interest) to basically replace Yanda (would have been another smart coup by GM Eric DeCosta) and that's why they suddenly slapped the franchise tag on him out of nowhere. Matthew Judon's tag is essentially the same at Thuney's and the Ravens aren't in love with paying Judon $15 million.

Are they better or worse?: Better. Pierce and Wormley will be missed and are good players, but the Ravens draft and develop, and DeCosta addressed his biggest weakness in the run defense. I love when a good team doesn't do much in free agency — continuity is a pillar of success in the NFL.



What I liked: Keeping Chris Jones was a must under the franchise tag. He's difference-maker on defense and cues everything Steve Spagnuolo does.

What I didn't like: The Chiefs are really, really thin at cornerback and linebacker, and I still don't love the interior of the offensive line. With a mobile QB, there's nothing more important than his protection.

Are they better or worse?: Worse because they're the same, and without that Super Bowl carrot out in front of them again, it's only natural to take a step back.



What I liked: Finally moving on from solid but relatively expensive players like Harmon, Roberts and Ebner. But it was a year too late. They really couldn't have done that last year, had the same results and saved about $10 million to use on, I don't know, a tight end! ... Byrd finally brings some speed to the offense, and Phillips will be a great Patriot.

What I didn't like: Bill Belichick never having a real, human conversation with Brady. That a two-year commitment could have brought the QB back for a final run . ... I like having Devin McCourty here, but Jason was another waste of cap space with all the young talent in the secondary. LET THE KIDS PLAY. ... I would have kept Shelton for the same money over Allen.

Are they better or worse?: Worse, right now. Until we know the QB situation and who's playing TE ... long way to go on all that with the draft and cheap free agency.



 

What I liked: Keeping Henry. That's it. And I might not like that when I see the extension he gets. #dontpayrunningbacks

What I didn't like: I didn't mind the decision to go with Tannehill over Brady, but not at $30 million per season. Tannehill was a byproduct of the line and Henry, and he's getting paid like he's the difference-maker. I would have paid Brady $5 million less per season. ... Beasley has always been overrated and an underachiever. Casey has been the straw the stirs the drink on defense.

Are they better or worse?: Worse. This smells of a team making a surprise run because right place, right time and then doubling and tripling down it can be repeated — but it can't.



What I liked: Lookie, lookie at the Bills. I like every one of the players they picked up — they all are good, solid players with upside — and Diggs is one of the best in the league. Norman should be better back in the system that made him rich.

What I didn't like: Josh Allen is still the Bills' quarterback with zero competition. This reeks of the Mark Sanchez Jets and Tannehill Dolphins. I'm fine with going with Allen, but I'm making damn sure I have a backup plan and he's pushed. Andy Dalton would be a really smart move for the Bills, if he can't find a legit competition.

Are they better or worse?: They're better, but will it matter with the QB? The Bills might win the AFC East by default with Brady gone, but that doesn't mean they're better.



What I liked: Buckner is overrated but makes the Colts better, and Rivers should be a perfect fit all around in Indy.

What I didn't like: Is GM Chris Ballard paid by the percentage of cap space he doesn't use (still about $45 million)? Go get some real weapons. TY Hilton needs a lot more help.

Are they better or worse?: Better at QB, but that's about it. If Ballard uses the third wave of free agency to cheaply get some receivers, then it will be a lot better.



What I liked: Nothing, other than I assume they'll get Ben Roethlisberger back healthy. Ebron's overrated, Wisniewski is just average ... Wormley is good.

What I didn't like: Tagging Dupree is a waste of cap space because he's not impactful enough. I would have gone cheap there and paid T.J. Watt. ... I can't believe they broke up Heyward, Tuitt and Hargrave (I do, really, it got expensive). One of the best three-men d-lines in recent NFL history.

Are they better or worse?: They're better just with Roethlisberger back. Getting mighty thin on defense, especially linebacker.



What I liked: Keeping CBs Roby, Gaines and Hargreaves ... and that's about it.

What I didn't like: Unlike a lot of people, I don't mind shipping off Hopkins if he was truly dead-set on holding out for a new contract — he was getting paid a fair rate. But getting Johnson back in return made little sense.  ... Reader was their most consistent front seven player (yeah, I'm looking at you, Mr. Injury, J.J. Watt). ... Paid Cobb way too much money.

Are they better or worse?: Worse. This team will continue to be the Deshaun Watson show.



What I liked: All of it. They upgraded all over the defense — which was really needed — and got a good developmental QB to push Carr and give Gruden options.

What I didn't like: Witten was done three years ago. They have three good tight ends already.

Are they better or worse?: Much better on defense and if they can find a good receiver in the draft, this team is going places.

 



What I liked: Nothing.

What I didn't like: Fant nearly got Russell Wilson killed, and now he's going to do the same with Sam Darnold. Splendid.

Are they better or worse?: Better, I guess, just through continuity. The bar isn't very high.



What I liked: That the Dolphins signed good, solid professionals who should work very hard and give Brian Flores the type of locker room he desires.

What I didn't like: Ereck Flowers? I don't care what he showed at guard in Washington, you can't give him that much money. The only reason he looked like he turned in a corner with the Redskins is because Bill Callahan was all over Flowers' behind and is one of the best o-line coaches in NFL history.

Are they better or worse?: Much better with a low bar.

 

COVID-19 COULD DRAMATICALLY SHAPE QB LANDSCAPE

If you're Bill Belichick after Tom Brady bolted for the Yuck-aneers (we're in a bizarro world), why on Earth would you move to bring in a new quarterback right now to compete with Jarrett Stidham? We have no idea when or if there will be an NFL season. There stands a strong chance that, at the least, offseason practices are affected. Training camp and the preseason could be shortened, if not eliminated.

Say that the NFL doesn't resume operations until Aug. 15 — and that may be generous. There may only be time for three weeks of practice and one preseason game. Is that enough time for Andy Dalton or Blake Bortles or Taysom Hill (if you were planning an RFA offer sheet) or Nick Mullens to learn the offense and then compete against Stidham? Of course not. So the prudent thing, for now, may be to stay the course, re-sign Brian Hoyer as a veteran option, and then think about more competition should the situation resolve itself by the time camps open in late July.

This could also adversely affect Tom Brady's chances of first-year success in Tampa. He's going to have to meld the only offense he's ever been in with Bruce Arians' system — including protections and Brady's ability to get out of bad plays, which has always been one of his best assets — and that's going to take a lot of time.

Now that Brady has found a team to give him the two-year security he always wanted from the Patriots, I expect Brady to resume doing the year-round work he used to do in order to be great. He'll be able to get a lot of work done remotely — he's done that for years — but Brady will need a lot of on-field time in practice and game situations (not just workouts in Montana) to get off to a fast start. With the world on pause, Brady may not get that chance.