MLB Notebook: If Chris Sale can't pitch in 2020, a serious reappraisal is due for Red Sox

FORT MYERS, Fla. -- For the past two months, Major League Baseball's investigation into allegations that the Red Sox illegally stole signs during their 2018 championship season has hung over the franchise like the proverbial sword of Damocles, threatening to further disrupt what has already been a tumultuous offseason.

The investigation is ongoing, with recent reports suggesting it may be closer to Opening Day before MLB issues its findings and expected punishment.

Suddenly, however, the MLB investigation is far from their top priority. The Red Sox have more serious matters with which to deal.

Sometime later next week, Chris Sale will begin throwing a baseball again. He'll begin with simple long toss, graduate to bullpen sessions, and eventually, live batting practice and then games.

That progression, of course, is a best-case scenario. Should Sale encounter any more discomfort in the elbow area along the way, odds are good that he'll be facing the prospect of Tommy John surgery. Such a procedure will not only sideline Sale for more than a year, but also, potentially alter the trajectory of the franchise for the foreseeable future.

Given their offensive strengths, improved depth and a fairly reliable bullpen, the Sox had reason to believe that they could contend for a wild card spot with a healthy Sale. A front three of Sale, Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi is a strong rotation -- assuming good health for all involved.

The Red Sox might not be legitimate threats to unseat the Yankees as A.L. East champs, but they could reasonably expect to win somewhere between 85-90 games, which, recent history suggests, would be enough to keep them in the running for the playoffs well into September. With a break here or there, or surprise contributions along the way, they might even qualify for the postseason.



But without Sale, the Red Sox 2020 prospects worsen considerably. Suddenly, Martin Perez is the team's No. 3 starter and two vacancies in the rotation would have to be accounted for. There's only so much to be expected from a rotation that could include Ryan Weber and an opener. The performances of the internal starter candidates from within the organization have been far from inspiring in Grapefruit League play, and while the signing of Collin McHugh was a smart one, even McHugh is unsure of his timetable to return to the mound. It's a safe bet that he won't pitch before May, and quite likely, his return will come significantly later.

Such thin options in the rotation doom the 2020 Red Sox. Sure, even without Mookie Betts, they'll score a boatload of runs, which will help them beat up on Baltimore, Kansas City, Seattle and a few others. But the absence of quality starters will catch up to them soon enough.

And so, if Sale finds more bad news and needs surgery, the Red Sox need to shift gears. The Sox need to be honest -- not just with themselves, but with their fans. No Chris Sale means no chance, and it's incumbent upon the club to recognize that and make the most of the opportunity.

Since the current ownership took control in 2002, the Red Sox have, to their credit, pursued championships. They've spent freely -- though not, it should be noted, always wisely. They've refused to outright rebuild and instead attempted to reload -- sometimes to the point of stubbornness. (Example: When they traded Jon Lester and Jon Lackey, they sought major league help in return, rather than obtaining prospects around which they could fashion a more complete, gulp, rebuild).

John Henry and Tom Werner have been of the belief that Red Sox fans would not accept a step back in roster-building. In Glengarry Glen Ross, the sales staff is reminded to live by the acronym ABC -- 'Always be closing.'' At Fenway, ABC has stood for ''Always be contending.'' Or else.

That's led to ill-advised forays into the free agent market for quick fixes (show yourself out, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval). In some ways, it's admirable that ownership has attempted to remain relentlessly relevant. Fans paying some of the highest ticket prices in the game, and rooting for a franchise with bountiful TV and radio revenues, should expect an in-kind commitment that ownership put its money where its mouth is. No franchise in the game spent more money on payroll from 2010-2019 and often -- perhaps you've heard -- willingly paid for its largesse with good-sized competitive balance tax (CBT) bills.

But if Sale's left elbow is to be sacrificed to the surgeon's laser, now is not the time to spend blindly, which is a good thing because 1) it's too late to do so with the free agent crop already largely picked over, and 2) the team just finished slashing payroll to re-set its tax rate.

Instead, what's needed is a cold brace of reality. It's time for the Sox to look themselves in the mirror and ask: Who are we?

The answer, without Sale, is a thoroughly flawed team with holes to significant to overcome. And the sooner the Red Sox face that unpleasant truth, the better off they'll be.

Fortunately for the Red Sox, there is an upside to what will otherwise be a desultory 2020 campaign: opportunity.

Far faster than they expected, the Sox can rely on Chaim Bloom's past history with teardowns. Over his 15-year career with the Tampa Bay Rays, Bloom witnessed -- and eventually took part in -- roster regeneration. James Shields, David Price, Evan Longoria and many others were shipped out when it became clear that the Rays had to start over.

Without Sale, that's where the Red Sox will be. There's little value in keeping the current group together, all in the service of a 82-win season that falls short of the playoffs and offers no real path forward. Nobody wants to watch a $200 million ode to mediocrity.

Instead, what's needed is an honest appraisal for their fans, and as much trading off of serviceable pieces as possible.

Xander Bogaerts, locked into a team-friendly contract for a minimum of six seasons, stays. So, too, does Rafael Devers -- preferably with an extension of his own once the roster bloodletting is complete.

The organization's handful of actual prospects stay, too. Hands off on Triston Casas, Jay Groome, Jarren Duran, Bryan Mata and Jeter Downs.

But everybody else? Make them an offer! No reasonable proposal turned down!

This goes double for any free-agent-to-be who doesn't factor in the future. Jackie Bradley Jr., Mitch Moreland and Brandon Workman have value and should be auctioned to the highest bidder -- now, or at the trade dealine.

A few others fall somewhere in the middle. Andrew Benintendi, Eduardo Rodriguez and Christian Vazquez are in their prime and under control for at least the next two seasons. A case could be made that they each could be part of a contending Sox team in 2021 and beyond. But it would be foolish not to listen and see what any of them could fetch in return. Maybe some team in July might be tempted to overpay. Again, hear them out.

With a substantial enough selloff, there will be predictable grumbling from some that the Red Sox are charging contender prices for an also-ran product on the field. Fair enough: pledge that the Sox will not raise ticket prices for the next two seasons as compensation for putting up with what figures to a forgettable 2020.

The valuation of the franchise has increased more than five-fold since it was last sold. If the profit margin is sliced thin the next two years by stabilized ticket prices, that will be offset by a new national TV deal and the franchise's worth will continue to escalate.

In a sense, Henry and Werner are to be congratulated for their commitment to the franchise, making every effort to win nearly every season.

But sometimes, less is more. If Sale is out for the entirety of this season and part of next, that disappointing development should be turned into an opportunity to restock and -- dare we say it -- rebuild.

_______________________________

MLB can use all the help it can get in promoting its players, having failed to capitalize on marketing its young stars the way, say, the NBA has done with theirs.

This spring, a few national telecasts have featured some star players being miked up, with their conversations -- with teammates, umpires and opponents -- broadcast in real time.

A Chicago Cubs game featured some hilarious by-play between corner infielders Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, who good-naturedly ribbed one another and carried on humorous banter between pitches.

More recently, New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso did the same with equally entertaining results. A Red Sox road game in North Port may have lacked star appeal by the visitors, but the interaction between Michael Chavis and Kevin Plawecki was still worthwhile, as was a late-game cameo featuring Tom Goodwin, the team's engaging first base coach.

During the regular season, this becomes harder to pull off. While the atmosphere in spring training is far more casual and can lend itself to revealing and fun conversations, during the regular season the stakes are far greater and the players aren't likely to be as relaxed.

There's another hurdle, too: the Players Association has already registered its concerns about the practice, fearful that one of its members will unintentionally mutter something embarrassing in the hear of competition -- the way New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold did last fall in an infamous miked up moment ("I'm seeing ghosts'') on the sideline against the Patriots.

But surely, MLB and the MLBPA can come to some compromise that allows viewers a glimpse of players' personalities and reveals their human side. Such a perspective can only bring fans closer to the game and enable a deeper connection with the stars, which baseball can surely use. And with half of the game's national TV contract soon up for bidding -- Fox's deal is set through 2028 -- more access can only enhance baseball's leverage as a TV property.

_____________________________

It continues to astound me how antagonistic some fans are toward injured players.

Dustin Pedroia has played only nine games over the last two seasons, but has rightly been paid in full and will continue to be paid for this season and next because he signed a guaranteed contract and because he was injured while on the job.

That hasn't stopped a segment of Red Sox fans from suggesting that he, you know, do the right thing and forfeit his contract to help the Red Sox with their competitive balance tax (CBT) overages. As if it should be Pedroia's concern that the Red Sox unwisely allocated millions to others. As if Pedroia being hurt while on the job is less important than saving John Henry a few million here and there.

Explain to me, please, how it is that a billionaire owner is a more sympathetic figure than an athlete unable to continue playing because he was injured through no fault of his own.

The same dynamic came into play after Sale's emotion-filled press conference mid-week. Sale expressed sincere regret that he hadn't been able to perform to his customary level of excellence since signing a five-year, $145 million extension 12 months ago and repeatedly signaled his disappointment in letting the organization down.

I tweeted that it was refreshing to hear a highly-paid athlete show such accountability. Most agreed, but a few did not.

One follower insisted that Sale's words were only talk and if he really wanted to demonstrate his regret, he would refund the Red Sox their money. A few others charged that Sale was hardly a sympathetic figure since he was injured when he signed the deal and thus was guilty of fraud.

To be clear: while Sale experienced inflammation in the shoulder over the last two months of 2018, he was thoroughly examined by the Red Sox last spring and passed the team's physical.

If Sale was indeed "injured'' when signing the deal -- and there's zero evidence to support this claim -- then that's on the Red Sox and their medical staff, not Sale.