NBA Notebook: Why Al Horford signing has already backfired for 76ers

The Celtics had intended on Al Horford being part of the long-term plan for the Celtics, even after Kyrie Irving had one foot out the door during the postseason. However, that intention was always contingent upon the Celtics being able to sign him to a team-friendly or at least a fair market deal after he declined his $32 million player option last June.

However, a wildcard emerged that put a wrench into the C’s plans on that front in the form of Sixers GM Elton Brand and the Philadelphia 76ers. The newly named general manager who had been a traditional power forward for much of the early 2000s in his heyday, envisioned an old-school type lineup look for the Sixers and was armed with the cap space and championship potential to lure Horford away from Boston.

Brand was able to check every box that Horford was looking for last summer, paying him more than the Celtics were willing to offer (four years, $109 million), offering him the chance to play power forward (not happening in Boston much after Aron Baynes’ departure) and on paper giving him a core of young talent that could be sold as having a better chance to win a title now than the Celtics young core.

Danny Ainge had the ability (in theory) to work a sign-and-trade maneuver to keep Horford and still acquire Kemba Walker as part of a max deal but he stuck to his guns when refusing to go to four years and over $100 million offer for the 33-year-old who had already started to show signs of decline during his last year in Boston. While the allure of bringing Horford back in a wide-open Eastern Conference may have been compelling for Ainge, tying up a huge part of the salary cap for the big man as he entered his mid-30s was too much for Ainge to swallow (on top of giving up the draft capital needed to pull off a sign-and-trade for Walker that would have been required.).

Ainge wisely passed on this option, pivoting to a three-headed center monster for a total of $13 million for all three guys in Daniel Theis, Enes Kanter and Robert Williams. He didn’t know at the time how well that decision would go but he deserves credit for not sacrificing long-term cap flexibility with the Horford deal in order to (potentially) maximize the C’s title chances in the short-term. Whether or not this version of Horford would have actually helped the Celtics much more than Theis/Kanter is debatable (and a column we will hone in another day after the postseason) but the impact of Horford’s signing on the Sixers in both the present and their future is already jarring.

The veteran big man is averaging 11.7 points and 6.6 rebounds in 30.5 minutes per game but his efficiency numbers have been jarring. His true shooting percentage (51.5 percent) is a career-low thanks to a decline in 3-point shooting (32 percent) despite an increased volume from downtown. Combine that with a continuously free falling free throw rate and Horford really isn’t bringing anything to the Sixers offense right now when he’s sharing the floor with Joel Embiid. That lack of chemistry eventually led to Brett Brown electing to move Horford to the bench last week.

“Obviously as a group and as a team, we’re still trying to figure out and see what works best,” Tobias Harris told reporters last week. “Just to have that mentality and be able to do what could be a great move for our team and see if it works, that shows a winning attitude, winning mentality, and we’ll see if it works.”

The two have averaged 14.3 minutes per game together and had the worst offensive rating (98.7) of any two 76ers teammates that have played together for at least 300 minutes. The easy looks Horford would get in the post or at the basket have essentially disappeared with Embiid and Ben Simmons taking up that space and that has essentially turned Horford into a catch-and-shoot guy. He’s never been a natural in that role (pick-and-pop is his bread-and-butter) but the Sixers don’t have a natural point guard to run that type of offense with him.

This type of fit issue was not especially tough to foresee, especially when the Sixers paid big money to sign another forward who was a meh 3-point shooter and oversized for a small forward in today’s NBA in Tobias Harris. However, the rapid decline of Horford’s play in just year one of his deal is understandably setting off alarm bells in Philadelphia given the lack of flexibility the team has to improve this roster moving forward. Outside of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, there are no top great trade assets on that roster. Horford and Tobias Harris’ deal probably carries negative value at this point given their length and value. Josh Richardson is going to be a free agent after this season and look for a big reason. Beyond that? Lots of role players that don’t carry much value.

Essentially, Brand painted this team into a bit of a corner by handing out big deals to the likes of Horford and Harris this offseason, leaving no easy way for this team to retool if the fit looked this bad offensively.

The bigger question the Sixers will need to answer in the meantime is how much of the issue is the system/fit vs. Horford’s own individual decline. His shooting numbers are way down and he’s still playing 30 minutes a game, which is actually a minute higher than last season. He’s missed some time with an Achilles issue this year already and his lackluster play lately since being sent to the bench three games ago (18 total points in last four games on 6-of-22 FG) makes me believe that injury may be an underlying factor in his subpar play. The Sixers have some extra (albeit underwhelming) depth now after acquiring Alec Burks and Glenn Robinson III at the trade deadline so they may be better off resting Horford right now rather than wear him out in the regular season (for probably no better than the No. 4 seed).

With Ben Simmons set to get an MRI today on his sore back today, the situation could get worse before it gets better for the Sixers since they lack reliable playmakers without him. Cutting loose Brett Brown at this stage of the season to revamp the offensive system seems like a stretch for a team that is 35-21 and well past the trade deadline already.

For now, Horford looks poised to be the highest-paid sixth man in the league for the foreseeable future in Philadelphia. His goal of playing some power forward next to Embiid as he enters the last stage of his career has backfired to a degree as now he’s left playing primarily backup center minutes for a team that is underachieving. A new coach next season could help to alleviate some of these issues but it’s hard to envision Horford and Embiid ever starting together in today’s NBA again consistently.

“It’s what the team needs right now, and that’s what we’re doing,” Horford told PhillyVoice.com, about coming off the bench. “I didn’t really give it much thought to be honest, I’m just refreshed being back and ready for the second half of the season.”

Horford is a true pro and won’t throw the organization or coaching staff under the bus despite the tough situation he finds himself in. While Brand deserves most of the blame for putting together puzzle pieces that don’t fit with his offseason moves, Horford’s subpar play has certainly been a contributing factor in this mess. There’s still a couple of months for them to right the ship ahead of the postseason, but much like the Celtics squad last year, this new-look Sixers squad looks destined for failure this postseason after putting together the worst road record for any playoff team in the NBA through 56 games.

Other NBA News and Notes

* Kyrie Irving was declared out for the season last week after undergoing exploratory shoulder surgery. Beyond all the off-court drama, one of his biggest weaknesses that has been overlooked in recent years remains his durability. He played the fewest games of his career this year (20) and has now failed to reach 70 games in six of his nine NBA regular season. After seeing his season end prematurely due to injury in three of the last five years, keeping him healthy with Kevin Durant next season may end up be Brooklyn’s biggest challenge.
* After the success of the Elam Ending in the All-Star Game (untimed fourth quarter with a target score), would hope we see some version of the format used in NBA Summer League this July to spice up what can become some repetitive games beyond getting a first look at prospects.
* Rumored trade deadline target Markieff Morris will head to the Lakers after being bought out with the Pistons earlier this week. Tough to see him getting meaningful playing time there with Kyle Kuzma already in place off the bench but he will provide more reliable 3-point shooting at power forward.
* Keep an eye on the Clippers chemistry issues moving forward. They have now lost three straight games with Paul George and Patrick Beverley sidelined him injury issues. Doc Rivers has been a captain of making veteran additions midseason throughout his career but adding a couple of shoot-first guys/lackluster defenders in Marcus Morris and Reggie Jackson in the past week will test this group that hasn’t clicked great all year long amid a tough run of health.