When news broke earlier this month that the Canadiens were taking a flyer on veteran winger Ilya Kovalchuk — the reaction around the league was quite tepid.
After all, the former star’s stock arguably couldn’t have been any lower at the time — given that his former club in the Kings opted to bench him for over a month before finally terminating the three-year, $18.75 million contract he signed back in July 2018.
Now an unrestricted free agent, Kovalchuk’s pursuit of a Cup contender fell short when he ultimately inked a two-way contract for the league minimum salary of $700,000 with the Habs.
On paper, it made plenty of sense for a Montreal team crippled by injuries and bottoming out in the Atlantic Division to see what Kovalchuk had left in the tank — especially with top-six minutes and power-play reps all but guaranteed.
Expectations might have been low for Kovalchuk up in Montreal, but the reaction in Boston was a bit more divisive. Given the Bruins’ continued search for a top-six winger, many bemoaned Boston for not rolling the dice on Kovalchuk — given the low risk involved with that one-year deal.
Others, including yours truly, shrugged their shoulders when Kovalchuk first took to the ice with the Tricolore earlier this month.
Sure, perhaps Kovalchuk still had something left in terms of serving as a power-play specialist. But I was rather skeptical about how much Kovalchuk could really impact a club in the O-zone, especially during 5v5 play.
After all, for a player marketed as an effective, high-volume shooter, Kovalchuk’s shot distances earlier this season with Los Angeles averaged out to 34.88 feet — well below the league average — and his individual 5v5 shots per 60 minutes rate of 6.1 would rank 11th on this current Bruins roster.
Well, it might be time for me to eat crow.
Yes, Kovalchuk was handed heavier minutes in a Montreal lineup still without the likes of Paul Byron, Jonathan Drouin and Brendan Gallagher, but the 36-year-old winger has run with his new opportunity — tallying four goals and eight points in his first eight games with the Habs.
As an established top-six winger, Kovalchuk’s offensive numbers have spiked since his days skating with the likes of Trevor Lewis and Adrian Kempe in L.A. — and not just in terms of basic offensive output.
Since arriving in Montreal, Kovalchuk is generating more quality looks and driving 5v5 offense for a Habs club in need of a jolt up front.
After averaging close to 35 feet on his shots as King, Kovalchuk is averaging about seven feet closer to the net on his shots during his first eight games with the Canadiens (27.87 feet), with four of those attempts coming off of rebound chances in front.
Averaging close to 20 minutes of ice time per night is likely going to aid your offensive totals, but his overall rates/60 minutes have also trended in the right direction over the last couple of weeks.
During 5v5 play (during which Kovalchuk has collected six of his eight points with the Habs), the winger is now averaging 8.04 shots, 7.53 scoring chances and 2.01 rebounds created per 60 minutes.
On the Bruins, those respective numbers would rank fifth (shots/60), seventh (scoring chances/60) and first (rebounds created/60) on the roster.
Given both Boston’s cap situation and the still pressing need for established scoring beyond the trio of Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand — the sight of Kovalchuk ripping it up in Montreal on a league-minimum salary is a tough hit.
But, if the Bruins were still interested in Kovalchuk's services, it's not out of realm of possibility that the B's will get another shot at bringing in the established sniper for the stretch run this winter.
While Kovalchuk has surpassed expectations in Montreal, the same can't be said for the club around him — as the 22-21-7 Habs continue to slip further and further down the standings in the Eastern Conference. Given that a resurgent Kovalchuk will likely have his eyes set on a Cup contender this offseason when he re-enters free agency, it wouldn't come as much of a surprise if Habs GM Marc Bergevin offers up Kovalchuk in a trade before the Feb. 24 deadline.
Given that the Canadiens didn't have to give up anything other than a league-minimum salary to bring Kovalchuk aboard earlier this month, Bergevin should be thrilled if he's able to poach a few assets from a contending club in exchange for a couple months of the veteran winger.
So, could the Bruins come knocking? Bruce Cassidy does have a few intriguing middle-six options to play with when Boston comes back from the bye week on Friday, but given the team's Cup-contending window, it seems like a given that Don Sweeney will scour the market to bring in more of an established option to slot next to David Krejci.
In a perfect scenario, Boston would likely want a bit more of a proven product — such as Chris Kreider, Tyler Toffoli, Kyle Palmieri — for that role. But if Sweeney is intent on spending assets elsewhere (maybe adding some bulk in the bottom six or adding a regular on the blue line?), perhaps the B's can get the top-six answer they need in Kovalchuk, while only having to deal a third-round pick or a pair of lower selections to seal the deal.
Of course, it remains to be seen if Bergevin would even entertain trading a player to Boston, given the history between the Original Six clubs. In the last 55 years, the Bruins and Canadiens have only agreed to three trades:
Feb. 21, 2001: Eric Weinrich to Boston / Patrick Traverse to Montreal
Aug. 1, 1964: Cash to Boston / Orval Tessier to Montreal
June 28, 1964: Guy Allen & Paul Reid to Boston / Alex Campbell & rights to Ken Dryden to Montreal (ooooooooof.)
But even if Boston is pursuing the likes of Kreider, Toffoli, etc., the B's are just one of many contenders that will likely be vying for their services next month ahead of the deadline. And if Boston does come up short in those potential deals, it's always good to have a few contingency plans.
If Bergevin is willing to talk, Kovalchuk stands as an intriguing fallback option for the Bruins, especially after the winger slipped through their grasp just weeks prior.
Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick & Sean Tierney.