MLB Notebook: Fearless predictions for the New Year; bullpen needs unaddressed

New Year's Resolutions? Who needs 'em. Too easily broken and equally forgettable.

New Year's predictions? Well, those are a little more appealing, to say nothing of more fun. After all, it's a lot easier -- a whole lot less risky -- to predict the behavior of others than it is to focus on your own shortcomings. (Besides, that's what the comments section is for.)

So, with that in mind, here's some things that could/may/might happen during the upcoming year.

1. Mookie Betts will be on the Opening Day roster

Despite the rumors of a deal involving Betts and the Los Angeles Dodgers, consensus across the industry is that if Betts is traded by the Red Sox, it won't come until the July 31 trade deadline. As has been noted here and elsewhere, the deadline may create some urgency toward a deal and create a better market for the Sox.

Plus, it's getting late. While big trades sometimes happen in January or later, most teams have essentially set their budgets for the 2020 season and, beyond the complications of working out a deal with the Red Sox, it could be tough for a team to make room for a player set to make $28 million or more this season.

If the Sox are surprise contenders at the deadline, they can



keep Betts. If, as most suspect, they're out of the race, they can auction Betts to the highest bidder, save somewhere between $9-10 million -- by then, a more palatable number for interested teams -- and attempt to re-sign him in free agency.

2. David Price won't finish the season in a Red Sox uniform.

The Sox have been attempting to move Price for most of the winter, with no success. It's a given that they'd have to be willing to assume a sizable portion of his remaining $96 million over the next three seasons. Perhaps there will be an injury in spring training that will open up a bigger market for the lefty.

But it's worth noting that Price comes a "10/5'' player after the 2020 season -- ten seasons in the big leagues, the last five with the same team. That will give Price the right to reject any potential trade the Sox may want to make. And if they think it's tough trying to deal Price with three years and $96 million remaining, that will be a walk in the park compared to moving him with two years and $66 million plus his veto power.

3. Dustin Pedroia will appear in one more game, then announce his career is over and be officially released by the Sox.

Who knows when this will take place? It could be as early as April, after Pedroia goes through the paces in spring training, only to discover that, again, his knee cannot hold up to the strain of playing competitive baseball. Or, Pedroia could spend most of the year rehabbing, perhaps taking part in a rehab assignment in the minors and come to the same conclusion as the end of the season nears.

That's how the Mets handled David Wright's exit a few years back when Wright couldn't overcome a series of back and neck injuries. The Mets wanted to provide him with one more opportunity to play the game he loved, while providing fans a chance to say goodbye.

The Sox will want to do the same with Pedroia.

4. Chris Sale will be healthier and more durable, but less dominant.

Over the last two seasons combined, Sale has made a total of eight starts after Aug. 1. In 2018, it was his shoulder. In 2019, it was his elbow.

That's worrisome, but Sale has had plenty of time to rest and strengthen himself this winter. And while information about his specific program and progress has been hard to come by -- thanks to Sale's insistence that the team provides as little as possible to the public, as is his right under HIPPA laws -- the team appears especially confident about where he's at physically.

Ultimately, of course, Sale will have to prove he's healthy in spring training. The good news is, he'll be provided with a platform to do so. This spring, there will be no World Series hangover or reduced workload in recognition of what happened the previous October.

Having gone through a number of seasons with Sale and his various maladies, the training staff has a better understanding of how to find the happy medium between enough rest and enough work throughout the season.

Less clear is what kind of pitcher Sale will be. Tentative? Rejuvenated? In all likelihood, there'll be a degree of caution, especially early in the season as he gains confidence in himself and his elbow. In time, the velocity could return.

I'm not suggesting that Sale is about to turn into some junk-balling Frank Tanana type. About to turn 31, it's too soon for that. But I am suggesting that, for this year at least, there will be something of a transition to make, resulting in fewer strikeouts.

5. C.J. Chatham will be the rookie with the most impact.

There's more interest in Bobby Dalbec, who possesses light-tower power and whose ceiling is, for now at least, considerably higher. Sure, Dalbec could be a bust -- unable to cut down his strikeout totals and too inconsistent to claim regular playing time.

Or, Dalbec could earn the majority of at-bats at first at some point and put dents in The Wall while regularly swatting balls over it.

But don't write off Chatham. He's hit at every level, he's got terrific instincts and can help out at a number of different positions. Plus, he can play second base and that's a key to this scenario.

Let's assume that the Sox go with Jose Peraza as their more-or-less everyday second baseman to start the season. Peraza is a solid average to slightly above-average defender and there's enough offense elsewhere that his weak bat won't affect his playing time. At least not initially.

But say Peraza struggles offensively while Chatham starts the season in Pawtucket by stinging the ball. It won't take much for the Sox to transition Peraza into a multi-position utility piece while taking a longer look at Chatham at second. At which point, Chatham could continue his career-long habit of outstripping expectations and claiming the position for his own.

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In terms of obvious positional needs, the Red Sox have checked most of the boxes this offseason.

Needing a starter to replace Rick Porcello, they signed Martin Perez. Needing a versatile infielder who could handle second at least on a part-time basis to replace Brock Holt, they signed Peraza. And needing a backup catcher to replace the traded Sandy Leon, the Sox signed Kevin Plawecki.

OK, none of these acquisitions is going to result in the storming of ticket windows on Jersey St. or otherwise inspire much confidence in the fan base. And yes, most were low-cost additions, consistent with the team's goal to pare down payroll. In almost every case, affordability was their primary selling point.

But at least something -- and someone -- was brought in to address a hole.

The same cannot be said for the bullpen, where, for the second offseason in a row, the Red Sox seem oddly content with what they have.

The Red Sox finished 18th in bullpen ERA in 2019 with a 4.40 ERA, though the pen performed far better in the final four months than in the first two, when, too often, relievers were overworked thanks to the ineffectiveness of the starting rotation.

Brandon Workman, despite a walk rate higher than you'd prefer, proved to be a perfectly fine closer in the second half of the season -- once the Sox went with a more traditional bullpen structure. Workman went the entire season and allowed exactly one (1) home run in 286 batters faced while averaging 13.1 strikeouts per inning.

Matt Barnes was inconsistent, but had his moments and remains a valuable set-up option. Both Josh Taylor and Darwinzon Hernandez emerged as intriguing lefty power arms, and should Hernandez better harness his command, could potentially develop into an Aroldis Chapman-level closer. Marcus Walden was a terrific surprise.

But what's to stop Taylor from regressing some, the same way Ryan Brasier did in 2019? Bullpen performance is notoriously unpredictable and that goes double for journeyman like Taylor, Walden and Brasier, who emerge from out of nowhere and sometimes, just as quickly, fall back to ordinary status.

All the more reason for the Sox to stockpile additional arms for 2020. And yet, the only additions the Sox have made from outside the organization are Chris Mazza and Josh Osich. The former has both started and relieved but is likely ticketed as starter depth at Pawtucket while the latter has been primarily a lefty specialist, (188 innings in 217 games) at a time when that role has effectively been outlawed by baseball's new "three batter minimum'' rule.

Granted, the Sox are limited to what they can spend on relievers, just as they were with every other position.

But beyond Mazza and Osich, they haven't even taken a "strength-in-numbers'' approach.

Perhaps that will come later this month, as spring training draws closer and the remaining free agents grow more desperate. And maybe there will be a bargain find or two who can contribute and make Chaim Bloom and his Baseball Operations department look savvy and prescient.

But as it stands, the bullpen is in need of at least one significant upgrade and that's one box that has yet to be checked -- inexpensively or not.