Sharing with our buddy Paul Kuharsky this week in Nashville, so I figured you'd like to see the scouting report I gave them heading into Saturday's game.
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Hello there, Titans fans. It almost feels like y'all are cousins considering all the connections between the two teams, so Patriots fans are looking forward to this week's family reunion — but with some trepidation. Yes, we know all about what the Titans have done since replacing Marcus Mariota with Ryan Tannehill, but Patriots fans have a long history with Tanny and that will bring a little confidence. Here are 10 things you need to know — a state of the team, if you will — about these Patriots heading into Saturday night's showdown.
1. These aren't the Patriots you're used to: New England's teams in the past have been known to get off to slow starts but gradually build through the course of the season to the point that they're humming heading into the postseason. That is not the case this year. After starting 8-0 against what turned out to be the league's weakest schedule, the Patriots have gone just 4-4, and beaten only two teams — the Bills (10-6) and Eagles (9-7) — with winning records.
Now, that being said, the Patriots were worse in many ways last season — they were just 3-5 on the road and lost back-to-back games to non-playoff teams in the Steelers and Dolphins in December — and the Patriots still went on to win the Super Bowl.
2. They are really scuffling on offense: The offense has been a problem since the opener against the Steelers. Whether it's been bad offensive line play, a lack of weapons for Tom Brady, physical issues for Brady or dumb penalties, the Patriots have had all sorts of issues putting points on the board (for them). They finished seventh in the league in scoring — their lowest since 2006 — and some of those points were scored on defense, special teams or set up by short fields via turnovers. The Patriots finished 15th in total yards, which was their lowest since 2003. One of the big issues has been that they no longer have a player in the middle of the field, after the retirement of tight end Rob Gronkowski, that draws coverage. Everyone has to fend for themselves now and there's not enough top-level talent.
3. Tom Brady may be injured: He's not on the Patriots' injury report this week, but he hasn't look right at times this season, including Sunday's loss to the Dolphins when he completed just 55.2 percent of his passes. Against Miami, Brady was wearing a new type of cleats and appeared to have issues with his lower body (back leg) throwing off his mechanics, leading to several high throws. He's also dealt with a throwing elbow injury. Brady has gotten off to rough starts — after good opening drives — in the first halves of recent games. It seems to take him a while to get heated up. Brady also has had issues dealing with the pass rush and his willingness to stay in the pocket and take a hit. Of course, it was probably worse last year in the loss to the Titans and he rebounded from that — there's a sense Brady, when it's do-or-die time, will be just fine. But he's also 42 now.
4. Smart teams have figured out how to stop the Patriots: It's really not a magic formula, but you'd be surprised at how many teams aren't that bright (hello, Buffalo). Basically, double-team Julian Edelman wherever he goes, especially on third down and in the red zone, and put a defensive back (not a linebacker) on James White, and the Patriots have a hard time moving the ball because the other players can't beat man-coverage. The Dolphins absolutely erased Edelman (who is physically compromised while dealing with rib, shoulder and left knee injuries) from the game last week. Oh, and you don't need to worry about the Patriots beating you with the deep pass. Brady has a hard time throwing it right now, and they don't have anyone to fear on the outside.
5. Be ready for the trick plays: Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has tried everything short of the fumblerooski to accumulate yards and points, and he's done a good job with it. Some of that has involved trick plays, or those of the deceptive variety. Edelman and White have both thrown passes this season, and rookie receiver N'Keal Harry has been used on a lot of reverses. They even threw a touchdown pass to linebacker Elandon Roberts last week.
6. But don't sleep on the offense: It hasn't looked the same as the past and it's not consistent, but there have been encouraging signs for the offense and they're no longer terrible. The offensive line is finally playing like a group that returned three of five starters from last season. Left guard Joe Thuney has played at an All-Pro level all season, and right Shaq Mason is finally back at that level after an underwhelming season. Ted Karras has done a solid job replacing starting center David Andrews, Marcus Cannon has played better, and former first-round pick Isaiah Wynn improves with every snap he plays. So the running and screen games have improved. Harry has started to become a viable threat, RB Rex Burkhead is now a playmaker, TE Matt LaCosse will pop on the occasional seam pass, White's still one of the best pass-catching backs in the league, and you can never underestimate Edelman's ability to take over a game. If they could just get WR Mohamed Sanu, underwhelming since the trade from Atlanta, going, they'd be dangerous. The offense had four really good drives last week (that's a lot for them) and put up 24 points without any turnovers from the defense, and have scored got-to-have-it touchdowns in the fourth quarter the past two weeks. They are now holding their own, which was the plan all along because...
7. The defense has the ability to be great: They certainly didn't show it last week when Ryan Fitzpatrick threw all over them, but this is the same defense that almost shutout the Rams in the Super Bowl and was on pace to be one of the best defenses of all time for most of this season. Belichick realized this group could be special and carry the team to the title in the offseason, so he kept absolutely everyone. This is a group that has played a lot of ball together, some important games, is deep, and without many injury concerns.
8. The secondary is lights out: It didn't show last week against the Dolphins — or even last season in Nashville — but when this group knows it needs to come up with a great performance, it can basically pitch a shutout. They've only allowed 13 passing touchdowns this season, and four came against the Texans. Seven times the Patriots haven't allowed a passing touchdown. Stephon Gilmore is the best corner in the game and a possible NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Yes, Corey Davis got the best of him last year, and Gilmore was toasted by DeVante Parker last week, but he has a tendency to lose focus in some 1 p.m. games. Given what happened vs. Davis, and last week, expect him to be at his absolute best on Sunday. Corners JC Jackson and Jonathan Jones (battling a groin injury), along with safety Devin McCourty are among the best in the league. Patrick Chung, when healthy, is one of the top box safeties. They will man you up all over the place, and dare you to beat them.
9. Get ready for stunts, twists and odd blitzes: The Patriots don't have a dominant pass rusher, but what they do have is a bunch of versatile and smart players in the front seven and use both those strengths to pressure the quarterback. Kyle Van Noy leads the team with 38 total QB pressures, and there are five other edge players with at least 15. Ten players have double-digit pressures this season. LB Jamie Collins is second with 25.5 pressures and is tied with Van Noy for the sack lead (seven). What you'll see is linebackers playing off twists, and they'll put six or seven players on the line and two or three will drop off leaving an overload blitz.
The Patriots will also zero blitz at strange times — usually around midfield and in long yardage — and recent opponents (Houston, Kansas City, Miami) have turned that against the Patriots and burned them with big plays and touchdowns. The Patriots will send everyone when they want to make a play so there will be opportunities to make big plays against them.
10. Special teams better be on point: Since signing Justin Bethel to pair with Matthew Slater, which gives the Patriots two of the best special teams players in the league, the Patriots have really been feeling themselves and playing aggressive on special teams. They have blocked four kicks this season, and they will throw some looks to either get the opponent to take a timeout, or leave themselves shorthanded in protection. Titans STs coordinator Craig Aukerman better be on point, or it could cost them the game.