McAdam: With top free agent starters off the market, time for Red Sox to deal is now

The good news for the Red Sox: With the signing of Hyun-Jin Ryu by the Toronto Blue Jays earlier this week, all of the front-line starters are now gone from the free-agent market.

The bad news? It still is going to be a challenge for the Sox to move David Price.

Still, the clock is ticking as the club seeks its goal of reducing payroll to under the first competitive balance tax (CBT) threshold of $208 million.

By most accounts, the Red Sox now sit about $30 million above the desired goal. The Sox entered the offseason with the stated desire of re-setting their luxury tax rate, having gone way over in each of the last two seasons.

That's going to take some creativity, however. The Sox are willing to trade Price in an effort to reach that goal. (According to some reports, have also been open to moving Nathan Eovaldi, who is due $51 million over the next three seasons).

Price has $96 million due over the next three seasons, but the Red Sox understand that no team is going to assume 100 percent of the remaining money. More than likely,



the Red Sox will have to eat about a third of Price's contract, enabling them to shed a net of $20 million per season -- a significant start to their payroll reduction efforts.

Assigning a value of $20 million annually to Price would be in line with some recent free-agent deals to comparable pitchers. Dallas Keuchel got $55.5 million over three years ($17.5 million AAV) from the Chicago White Sox and days later, Ryu was able to get $80 million over four years ($20 million AAV).

Like Price himself, both Keuchel and Ryu are lefty starters in their 30s, with some durability issues.

Of course, with the Keuchel and Ryu signings, by definition, take two more potential landing spots off the list of possible matches for the Sox. Indeed, Ryu's deal was finalized just as The Athletic reported that the Jays had had some discussions with the Sox regarding Price before pivoting to the free-agent market.

There remain, however, at least a handful of teams in search of pitching upgrades, including the Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, San Diego Padres and Minnesota Twins.

The Dodgers lost Ryu to free agency and it would seem imperative that they replace him with another established starter if they are to repeat as N.L. West champions for the eighth straight season and continue to try to end their championship drought, now 32 years and counting.

The Angels have already added two starters this offseason -- trading for Baltimore's Dylan Bundy and signing free agent Julio Teheran to a one-year deal. Neither pitcher, though, is considered a top starter, filling the profile more of innings-eaters.

Having spent big on free agent third baseman Anthony Rendon -- whose $245 million deal was the largest awarded to a position player this winter -- the Angels would appear ready to go all-in, having missed the postseason in each of the last five seasons.

The Padres acquired Zach Davies in a multi-player trade with Milwaukee earlier this winter, bolstering their rotation, but they, too, could use one more upgrade.

Finally, the Twins, who improved by 23 games in 2019 over 2018, but their rotation is still somewhat suspect. The Twins finished 11th with a 4.19 ERA and have an inferior rotation when matched with the Cleveland Indians, the second-place finisher in the A.L. Central last year.

Identifying those four potential trade partners for the Sox is the easy part. But a recent trend may open the way for other less obvious bidders.

Unlike in recent offseasons when losing teams seemed all-too-content to languish at the bottom of the standings -- and collect more premium draft picks to enable their rebuild -- this winter has seen a temporary shift away from the practice of "tanking.''

The fact that both the White Sox and Jays spent relatively big dollars on veteran starting pitchers is evidence of a shift. Both coming off losing seasons, neither Chicago nor Toronto is judged to be ready to contend in 2020. But instead of plugging in cheaper journeyman or force-feeding not-yet-ready prospects into vacant rotation spots, both spent significant sums in an effort to inch closer to respectability, which promises increased ticket sales, TV ratings and an uptick in fan interest.

Such an approach could also provide incentive for others to jump into the running for Price.

Would the Texas Rangers -- moving into a new ballpark and with additional revenues to spend -- jump-start their rebuild by going after Price? Or the Seattle Mariners, who have gone longer than any team in the game out of the playoffs?

This much is already clear: Price's contract, while perhaps in need of some adjustment to make it more palatable in a trade, is far from immovable, given what other teams have spent on comparable free agents.

And for those shut out of that chase, the Red Sox might represent a plausible alternative.