Robb: The margin for error in the East looks thin for Celtics

By all accounts, the start of the 2019-20 regular season couldn't have gone much better for the Celtics when it comes to expectations.

Despite a number of significant injuries to key pieces, the Celtics have navigated treacherous waters admirably with a 17-7 start to their campaign which included a 10-game winning streak. Their six losses since opening night have come by a combined 24 points, which has put them in essentially every loss down to the closing seconds. They have beaten some of the best teams in the league already (Bucks, Raptors, Mavs, Heat, Nuggets) while taking care of the teams they are supposed to (just one loss against a sub .500 squad, Sacramento).

The end result sees the Celtics just one game out of the second seed in the Eastern Conference, a promising spot to begin the year. The problem? They are closer to falling out of homecourt advantage and the No. 6 seed (1/2 games) than that No. 2 spot.



For years, the Eastern Conference has been the weaker of the two conferences but that is starting to change. The East actually has a winning record against the West in interconference matchups for the first time this decade and that’s largely due to the firepower at the top of the East that surrounds the Celtics. A rundown of what that group has done over the first third of the season. 

Milwaukee: Put together an 18-game winning streak with Khris Middleton sidelined for a large chunk of it. Remains on pace for 70 wins but have played the fourth-easiest schedule in the NBA thus far. Barring an injury to Antetokounmpo, seems like a lock for top seed.

Philadelphia: Has won 9 of 11 after a slow start to the year. Joel Embiid and Al Horford are back healthy. Has played the easiest schedule thus far but arguably has more defensive talent than any team in the league.

Miami: Injuries are starting to pile up for the Heat with Goran Dragic and Justice Winslow sidelined but there has been enough depth here to overcome it (eight players averaging in double figures). Beat Mavs in Dallas and almost beat the Lakers at home without both those guys. They have also played three more games on road (15) than home (12).

Toronto: A knee injury for Fred VanVleet has slowed the Raptors down a bit (losers of four in their past seven games) but they have played the sixth toughest schedule in the league with far more challenging opponents than the rest of the East thus far. That should help them stay in this mix until the end.

Indiana: The biggest surprise in this grouping but the Pacers earned the spot at this point after bouncing back from an 0-3 start with a 19-6 run. Quality wins over the Celtics, Lakers and Jazz are worth noting although the lack of tough opponents throughout that stretch overall (29th in schedule strength) makes them a regression candidate, but the looming return of Victor Oladipo serves as a wildcard and raises their ceiling.

The bottom line is all six of these teams are top-10 defenses, a clear-cut signal that all of these squads are for real and that goes beyond their early winning records. And with all six of these teams combining for just 10 home losses through two months (71-10 overall), it can’t be understated how crucial homecourt advantage and seeding is going to be during this postseason.

The Celtics are playing well enough to land the No. 2 seed at the end of 82 games but they could easily find themselves opening the first round on the road in Toronto or Philadelphia even with a slight drop-off in play given how tight these standings are. Things will happen (i.e. injuries) to probably cause some separation but the evidence continues to build that all of these teams will be within striking distance of homecourt all season long. With the improving Brooklyn Nets (15-12) not too far behind with the returns of Kyrie Irving and Caris LaVert approaching, they could be joining the party at some point as well.

All of this is a long way of saying that every game is going to matter more than usual this regular season for the Celtics. Boston has looked like a different team at home all year (10-1) so their best chance to make some noise this postseason is giving themselves that edge for at least the first round or two. After letting some potential wins slip away against the Sixers, Pacers, Clippers and Kings earlier this year, they need to take advantage of games in which they play well against tough opponents since those games could easily be the difference between the No. 2 and No. 6 seed.

A trip to Dallas against a Luka Doncic-less Mavs squad is a ripe opportunity to steal a win in what is suddenly a more appealing matchup. With Marcus Smart’s return looming this weekend as well and a favorable schedule stretch coming up (11 of the next 15 opponents are below .500), there is a chance for the C’s to gain some ground now that will come in handy later. They have played the second-toughest schedule (20th in NBA) among teams in this tight East race so far so making the most of this winter stretch could eventually be the difference between a trip to the East Finals or having to win a first-round series on the road against Philadelphia or Toronto.