We did this last year as a way to shine some optimism after a dark time among the fanbase (the loss to the Titans). At the time, it was just a fun exercise and, considering the Steelers loss was still to come, I'm not sure how much of it I believed in my bones. But this team always confounds in ways you least expect it, so it's always better to err on the side of optimism with these Patriots — no team, perhaps in professional sports, has found more brick walls to break through to continue their amazing run.
So, let's commence with the 2019 version...
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Let's fast forward a couple months ...
It's about 10:30 p.m. on Feb. 2 and red, white and blue confetti is being pumped into the air inside Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. Tom Brady is embracing Julian Edelman. Bill Belichick is pointing at friends down below the podium as he hoists the Lombardi Trophy for an amazing seventh time as Patriots coach, the fourth time in six years, and back-to-back for the first time since '03-04.
On the Internet, the Twittership of the Miserable is spending this euphoric time by going back on the timelines of mediots to find past opinions about how this Patriots team didn't have it — how they were going to come up short, that Super Bowl MVP N'Keal Harry was a bust, Brady was done, had no weapons, and Belichick had lost his personnel fastball — and throwing it back in everyone's face.
It's truly a glorious time for all involved.
But it sure seems like a long way off after Sunday's 28-22 loss to the Texans that was much worse than the score indicated. Belichick lost to Bill O'Brien for the first time. Yup, Teapot got the best of The Hoodie.
After an easy early-season stretch in which most predicted the Patriots would emerge 8-0 (they did), New England lost their two biggest games of the season — at Baltimore, at Houston — and both games were largely over entering the fourth quarter. Two wins over the Eagles and Cowboys look even worse now considering the tailspin both teams are in, to the point that 7-9 might win the NFC East.
Brady can't find anyone to throw to as teams are doubling Edelman, and sticking a defensive back on James White. There's no speed on offense, the Patriots punt more than any team besides the Jets and Bears, and Brady looks like he's going to lose his stuff after every possession. Everything is just hard for the offense.
On defense, the Patriots have largely been stellar but couldn't get off the field against the Ravens and Texans.
So the question remains: How could the Patriots get from this point to celebrating in Miami? What did we not see or get wrong about this team heading into the second week of December (it's even weird to say we have these questions about this team at this time of year)?
Before we start, let me just say for the record that I'm sticking with my preseason prediction of 13-3. As far as the Patriots going to the Super Bowl and meeting the Saints ... I'm going to have to go with matchups/health once we get to the postseason.
Let's start on what we didn't see coming on the Patriots' road to the Super Bowl ...
Injuries were a much bigger factor on offense than we were led to believe
We look at this offense right now and, it's not very good. Take away all the short fields and bites at the apple that the defense provided and it's really not good. But the early-season schedule bought the Patriots a much-needed buffer to work on things.
By the end of the season, Harry became a key red-zone threat, which the team desperately needed. It didn't look good early, but the Patriots wound up only needing three or four plays a game from him. Brady also came to realize that Jakobi Meyers had a lot of Danny Amendola in him, and once Mohamed Sanu finally got healthy with his ankle — it didn't happen until after the playoff bye — the Patriots had two inside slot players that wound up being matchup nightmares. If teams wanted to double Edelman, Brady threw to Sanu, who always had a size matchup advantage. And Phillip Dorsett finally started playing to his timed speed, and his quicks were an asset.
Eventually, Matt LaCosse became a very good receiving tight end and took advantage of matchups against linebackers. That high-ankle sprain took a while to get healthy, but he provided some pop. Ryan Izzo also came back and allowed the Patriots, at times, to use their old two tight-end offense.
The running game finally got going when Shaq Mason got healthy, and Marcus Cannon got over his illnesses. Isaiah Wynn stayed on the field and became one of the best young left tackles in the league.
S0 by the time the Patriots upset the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game at M&T Bank Stadium, New England had an efficient offense that did enough to compliment the defense.
The defense was one of the best of all time
What we didn't realize in the regular season was the offense's lack of success started to take a toll on the defense. But once the offense started staying on the field more, the defense didn't have any trouble against any type of offense.
That allowed us to see Belichick's plan come to fruition. While some of us were puzzled why Belichick kept every single player on defense and wouldn't even consider releasing even depth pieces like Deatrich Wise and Elandon Roberts, Belichick knew in his mind that the defense had a chance to be an all-time unit, the type that could carry even an offensively-challenged squad to a title. He didn't care about the weapons on offense because he knew the offense just needed a few drives a game, and Brady and Josh McDaniels would figure it out.
In the postseason, the Patriots' defense allowed an average of 13.3 points per game, which was plenty for the offense.
Those losses to the Texans and Ravens ... turned into wins
Sure, the Patriots looked bad on both sides of the ball in those losses. Turned out it didn't matter. What did matter was the data that Belichick and Ernie Adams were able to take out of those games. Between Jim Harbaugh and O'Brien coming up with their best gameplans in the regular season — everyone brings their A-game against the Patriots — and how that played right into the hands of the Patriots when they met each team again in the postseason (divisional round vs. Houston, AFCCG at Baltimore) and defeated them.
The Patriots had an answer to Romeo Crennel's man coverage and Greg Roman's offense the second time around. While the Patriots defense frustrated Deshaun Watson by forcing him to stay in the pocket, Brady picked apart an average Texans defense.
In the AFCCG, the defense the Patriots showed in the second half of the first matchup was there for the whole game this time. Like Watson, the Patriots shut down the Ravens' running game and made Lamar Jackson beat them from the pocket. He couldn't and all the talk was about how his weapons weren't that good — the scheme and surprises made the Ravens look better than they were. The bye week was huge because in Do Your Job 4, we saw practice footage of Adams scheming the exact plays the Ravens wound up running. It was a coaching clinic. Like always.
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So there you have it. The Patriots are partying in Miami, a vocal minority of their fans are burning up their Twitter feeds with glee and the duckboats are getting revved up. We in the media would have seen this coming if we would have taken a step back and looked at the big picture. But we're so consumed with the weekly results in football — because there's only one a week — that we can't see the forest through the trees.
But Belichick and Brady can.
That's No. 7. Time for No. 8. #kisstherings
One photo.... 14 rings.
Brady: ??????
Belichick: ???????? pic.twitter.com/ZNybFbsIZF
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) June 7, 2019
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GAME PICK
Line: Patriots by 3. O/U: 49. Season: 9-3, 7-5 ATS.
The Chiefs' offense hasn't been close to what it has been in the past and that will make a huge difference in this game. Patrick Mahomes is just a bit off, and Tyreek Hill has been kept in check. Combine that with all the injuries at running back, and these Chiefs will not burn up the Gillette turf.
Offensively, the Patriots get back to running the ball against a weak Chiefs front seven, and rediscovers its play-action and screen game. Suddenly, Brady has all sorts of people to throw to and he has a throwback game. All is right in Patriotsland again.
Patriots 24, Chiefs 20