Quite a Saturday when the Patriots sign Antonio Brown about an hour before I was due to be in a wedding, so here are some more thoughts.
Yes, Antonio Brown is better than Randy Moss when he was acquired by the Patriots — and Brown's reported contract tells you the Patriots think that too.
I posted that on Twitter and people lost their collective minds. Thankfully, someone like Damien Woody backed me up (Did I ever tell you how good of an offensive lineman he was? He's good-looking too.)
Thanks D-Wood https://t.co/usSJe3JXmf
— Greg A. Bedard (@GregABedard) September 7, 2019
I know hindsight is a hell of a drug — I get it all the time — but some people need a history lesson on Moss when he arrived in New England, and forget about what he did with the Patriots (it doesn't pertain to this discussion — you can't use it).
Moss shot his way out of Minnesota, then shot his way out of Oakland (sounds familiar). Moss hadn't caught more than 60 passes or posted more than 1,005 yards in the three seasons before he came to New England. People really wondered whether he had anything left in the tank.
Brown has posted at least 101 receptions, 1,284 yards and eight touchdowns in his previous six seasons. Those are his baseline numbers. Not an average. The minimum.
Moss was a five-time Pro Bowler and three-time first-team All-Pro before New England. Brown is a seven-time Pro Bowler and has been named first-team All-Pro four times (second-team once) in one less season than Moss.
Then there's the contract — and we really need to see the details of it before judging this move, because I still don't get how the Patriots have guaranteed him $9 million in a signing bonus (worth up to $15 million guaranteed).
If those numbers are in the realm of reality — we'll see, agent Drew Rosenhaus could have been less-than-truthful with his client to get him to do what's in his best interest — that pretty much ends the debate on who was the better disgruntled receiver when they arrived with the Patriots.
The Patriots tore up Moss' contract that had two years and about $20 million remaining. Moss agreed to take a one-year deal with a $500,000 signing bonus, a base of $2.5 million and another $1.75 million in incentives.
That screams: We don't know how much you have left either, but let's find out together.
If Brown is anywhere near $9 million guaranteed, that says: You're damn good but we don't overpay receivers and we don't have much cap space in any event.
So, please, spare me the recency bias and hindsight when it comes to Moss. He was looking to have his career resuscitated in New England; Brown is at the peak of his vast powers on the field (off it is a different discussion).
Speaking of which...
Brown is a multi-faceted offensive weapon. Moss was a two-trick pony.
Put contracts and numbers aside. Brown does more within an offense than Moss ever did. That's not even up for debate.
Take a look at these routes that Brown ran last year in two games that he dominated against two very good playoff teams — the Saints and the Chargers.
Those are every route in the route tree from basically every possible spot on the field.
Moss' route tree would be a lot of go's, posts and slants from the left boundary. He was certainly great at those and they served a purpose for those Patriots, but Brown's versatility and ability to score from any part of the field separates him from Moss.
Oh, and did I mention Brown is an electrifying punt returner as well, and has returned kickoffs?
Why was this an important and needed move by the Patriots?
One of the deficiencies of last year's Patriots team was that when push came to shove on third down and in the red zone, they were lacking targets who could win one-on-one without the aid of scheme. You could also glean that in Do Your Job 3 when, on a couple of occasions, Josh McDaniels referenced how they weren't sure how they could put 20 yards together.
When Rob Gronkowski, who was relied upon late against the Chiefs and Rams, retired, things were only worse on that front. Julian Edelman and James White are the best at what they do one-on-one. Josh Gordon has a big frame that makes him an inviting target. Demaryius Thomas has a big body. But there's no one to stretch the field and there's no one that is great without the aid of schemes like motion and other adjustments. This isn't me saying this (although I did last season). This is people in the building.
Brown completely changes that. He is such a great route runner and so fast and quick, that he is completely uncoverable in any situation anywhere on the field. Plus, he's now the gadget weapon.
I've had a lot of people ask me how Brown is going to be used in the Patriots' system. That's not the right question. How isn't Brown going to be used in the Patriots' scheme? is the right question.
Don't worry about all that. AB will get plenty of touches in a variety of ways as soon as he gets up to speed. It's up to McDaniels to fit Brown in, and he will. We already talked about how the Patriots wouldn't be using the tight end as much. Just envision Gordon, Edelman and Brown on the field a lot together. The rest is window dressing.
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Figured this would be the bulk of the column before the AB news, but here are my NFL predictions in a shorter format:
[table id=353 /]
Patriots Awards
Offensive player of the year: Antonio Brown. Yeah, I know, he hasn't even walked in the building yet, but he's going to cover up a lot of ills on this offense as soon as he and Brady get on the same page.
Defensive player of the year: Michael Bennett. I keep waffling between him and Stephon Gilmore, but I just think Bennett is going to produce an individual pass rush not seen in years around here.
Offensive newcomer: Isaiah Wynn. Aren't a whole lot of candidates for this, but I think Wynn will eventually be just fine.
Defensive newcomer: Chase Winovich. It won't be long before Winovich is playing a lot and John Simon is inactive a lot.
Comeback player: Danny Shelton. The guy was benched for a portion of last season because he wouldn't two-gap. He's really the only nose tackle on the team. If the run defense is improved, he'll be a big reason.
Assistant coach of the year: Joe Judge. If he can successfully manage special teams and that receivers room with Antonio Brown and Josh Gordon, Judge doesn't deserve this award ... he deserves sainthood.
MVP: Joe Thuney. It would be predictable and boring to go with Brady, so I'm going off the board. I have a sinking suspicion that Thuney could end up playing three positions on the line (left guard, center, left tackle) at some point this season. So that's pretty valuable to me.